Our Simon Crawford is backing the experience of Liam Smith to prevail against domestic rival Liam Williams in Manchester this weekend.
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There is plenty to like about Saturday night's Frank Warren promotion in Manchester as home favourite Terry Flanagan makes the fifth defence of his WBO world lightweight title against tough Russian Petr Petrov, while double Olympic champion Nicola Adams makes her eagerly-anticipated professional debut.
But I have a feeling that the blood and thunder domestic dust-up between Liverpool's Liam Smith (pictured, left) and Welshman Liam Williams will prove to be the real showstopper on the night.
It was initially sanctioned as being for the WBO European super-welterweight strap but will now be for the governing body's interim world title.
The holder of their main belt is currently Saul Alvarez - who won it off Smith back in September - but he is not likely to defend it, so this has now suddenly become a huge opportunity with the winner likely to be awarded full champion status if - and most likely when - the Mexican decides to vacate.
Smith (24-1-1, 13K0s) will be longing to claim the title back and even went over to Barcelona recently to take on local journeyman Marian Cazacu in an under-the-radar four-rounder to satisfy the WBO stipulation that a fighter who had lost his previous fight is not allowed to fight for a title.
It was also a canny way for the 28-year-old to shed some ring rust as he boxed his way to an emphatic points win.
Of course it was a risk, but it shows how determined 'Beefy' is to get back to world level at the earliest possible opportunity.
He claimed the WBO world title back in October 2015 by stopping American John Thompson in the seventh, before making successful inside the distance defences against Jimmy Kelly and Predrag Radosevic.
To his credit, Smith has always stated that he wanted to fight the best and his opportunity came against Alavarez - one of the most highly-regarded pound-for-pound fighters in the world
The Briton fell short on the night as he was stopped in the ninth round, nailed by a ferocious body shot.
The big question to be answered now is how much that affected him.
Williams (16-0-1, 11KOs) is the current British, Commonwealth and European champion at 154lbs whose stock is rising with very fight he has.
Impressive wins have come over domestic rivals Ronnie Heffron, Michael Lomax, Kris Carslaw and Gary Corcoran, while last time out he stopped Hungarian Gabor Gorbics in eight rounds to land the European belt.
The layers are finding it very difficult to split them but Smith is adamant this should not be billed as a 50/50 contest.
A lot of people are going to look silly when this fight is over," said Smith. "I'm confident on my behalf that this is not a 50-50 fight.
"After the fight everyone will see why I should have been the clear favourite. Believe me, I'm going to beat Liam Williams.
"I'm doing everything that I have always done - I haven't changed a thing. Liam and his team have changed everything. Everything they are doing is new to them, don't be surprised if they leave it all in the gym."
But Williams, 24, is confident his power will be the prevailing factor on the night.
"Smith likes to play psychological games and thinks he’s above everyone he fights,” explained Williams.
"He’s going to be in for a rude awakening." He really doesn’t understand what I’m about, where I was raised, what I come from.
"So forget about the mind games. I’ve a more well-rounded game. I’m slightly bigger, I’m stronger and I punch harder. That’s all I’m going to need."
Even when he was a world champion I still thought Smith was overlooked and under-rated by the masses and I think Williams might find that out to his cost.
The Welshman has been touted as the bigger puncher and the man who enjoys a war. But Smith likes nothing better than a scrap and prior to the Alvarez loss had stopped his last eight opponents which tells me he is strong at the weight and that he is pretty much near to his physical peak.
But the biggest factor for me in this one is experience and Smith has the undoubted edge there having had four world-title fights.
Only he will know how much the Alavarez defeat took out of him. I suspect the mental scars were the hardest to heal, as a first defeat is hard to take, no matter how good the opponent may be.
And had this fight only been for a European title then I would have been more inclined to call it 50/50 as Smith would surely have struggled to motivate himself after the experience of fighting at world level in-front of 50,000 fans in Texas when he took on Alvarez.
But now he has a real carrot dangled in front of him and I firmly believe we will see the best Liam Smith on Saturday night and, at this moment in time, his best is better than that of Williams.
The Welshman will become a world champion in the future, but I think this contest has come a couple of fights too soon for him.
I do believe it will be nip and tuck in the early rounds as Williams tries to land those power shots he possesses, but Smith has good movement and also picks his shots superbly so will be happy to slip and counter.
I don't think Williams can outbox the Liverpudlian so if the big shots don't land he will cut an increasingly frustrated figure as the fights wears on and that will play into Smith's hands.
Smith will be the winner for me and I think he will do it with a late stoppage, which is a general 4/1.
This promises to be a fight of the year contender but Smith's greater experience and variety of punches will win the day.
Where to watch on TV: BoxNation/BT Sport
Posted at 0750 BST on 07/04/17.
