MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 28
3pts Rozenstruik v Sakai to last over 2.5 rounds at 10/11 (Bet365, William Hill)
2pts Youssef Zalal to win at 13/8 (Bet365)
1pt Francisco Trinaldo to win at 11/5 (BetVictor)
A Cagey Affair
The UFC’s Heavyweight division has lost a lot of its popularity as the sport has developed in recent years. Bouts between the ‘baddest men on the planet’ were always hyped up and advertised as explosive wars, but the truth of the matter is that modern MMA fighters have become more defensively aware, and an increased likelihood of a knockout can easily lead to a more cautious approach from both competitors.
Since June 2019, there have been 13 UFC events headlined by Heavyweights. The company continues to market these bouts as short and exciting slug-fests that could end in the blink of an eye, but the average fight time has been just over 14 minutes. Saturday night’s main event competitors Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Augusto Sakai have collectively headlined three of these events, with each fight reaching the fifth round.
Further inspection of those 13 fights shows that the Heavyweight division has been relying more on the frailty of its aging veterans as opposed to the aforementioned power attributes. Names such as Alexei Oleinik, Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem are the last of the old guard at 265lbs and, unlike the weekend’s headliners, have suffered seven or more knockout losses in their long careers. With these fights excluded, the average fight time increases to 17 minutes and 35 seconds, which is far greater than many would believe.
There is no denying that Sakai and Rozenstruik both have fight-ending power, but the prospect of a 25 minute fight will likely produce some hesitance in the early rounds. Both fighters will need to preserve their cardio if they hope to win the additional fourth and fifth stanzas of this fight, which are a real possibility here due to the low output and durability of both men.
The bout itself will be closely contested, so a bet on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS seems very appealing as an alternative. The fight would need to last just 12 and a half minutes to win, which is significantly shorter than any of either fighter’s main event appearances so far, as well as the average Heavyweight main event in recent years. At 10/11, I think this is the best place to put your money on the headlining fight.
When is UFC Vegas 28?
Saturday, June 5
How can I watch it on TV?
Coverage is live in the UK on BT Sport 2, from 2200 BST on Saturday June 5
The devil is in the details
The second fight of the night sees a clash in the Featherweight division as YOUSSEF ZALAL faces off against Sean Woodson. Had this fight taken place a year ago, I think there would have been potential for it to headline the preliminaries, as both showed real promise earlier in their UFC careers and received high praise from fans. Since then, both have put on lacklustre performances that have seemingly put an end to their hype, with Zalal losing two decisions in a row and Woodson tapping out to Julian Erosa last year.
The physical attributes and striking skillset of Woodson are hard to deny and, should this fight take place entirely on the feet, he will utilise his reach advantage and win with an eye-watering number of strikes landed. The biggest weakness for The Sniper is undoubtedly in his grappling defence, where his eagerness to get back to his feet often puts him in a dangerous position. In his bout on the Contender Series, Woodson found himself defending a Rear Naked Choke for almost the entirety of the fight, before landing a huge knee and winning in the blink of an eye. Had he not ended the fight there and then, he would likely have been on the receiving end of a dominant grappling display. If the holes in his defence have not been filled since then, it will only be a matter of time before a wrestler takes full advantage.
With that said, Zalal has a tendency to turn contests into grappling affairs, whether ill-advised or not. In his UFC debut he completely neutralised a dangerous striker with a grappling approach, landing six takedowns and disrupting his opponent’s rhythm on the feet. The Moroccan Devil met his match against two superior grapplers in recent bouts, but that does not discredit his ability when he is the one pursuing takedowns. In a bout against Woodson, Zalal will once again have the opportunity to demonstrate his grappling abilities, just as long as he commits to his takedowns and avoids any reactive knees from The Sniper.
For me, the betting line for this fight is far wider than it should be, with oddsmakers likely putting too much emphasis on how good Woodson can look when things are going his way. If Zalal finds success getting this fight to the floor, then the betting line would look more accurate the other way around. Other bettors seemed to have already acknowledged this, with Zalal’s current 13/8 pricetag shortening from its 15/8 opener. I would expect this movement to continue as the fight gets closer, and for Zalal to prove that he was the value side all along with a well-fought, wrestling-based victory.
Trinaldo to triumph
At 42 years of age, FRANCISCO TRINALDO is rewriting the rules for the older generation of MMA fighters, proving that experience is a powerful tool inside the Octagon. With 33 professional bouts that date back as early as 2006, Massaranduba is currently on a three fight winning streak and shows no signs of slowing down.
The Brazilian is incredibly well-rounded, savvy and durable, having never been knocked out in his career. His ability to win rounds and make adjustments mid-fight is exceptional, winning 12 of 16 bouts that have gone the distance. With the ability to finish fights and a style that is so eye-catching for the judges, Trinaldo is a very difficult opponent to look good against.
However, fighting is always described as a ‘young man’s sport’, and there will unfortunately come a time where Massaranduba will be unable to compete with the evolution and youthful athleticism within MMA. Thankfully for the Brazilian, his opponent on Saturday night is the 38 year old Muslim Salikhov, who may be slower to the punch than Trinaldo himself.
Salikhov is a highly credentialed striker with an extensive kickboxing background, but he is too confident in his ability to hurt his opponent. The Russian’s output is slow and his movement is plodding as he waits for the perfect shot to turn the tide of the fight. These moments were the difference maker in his first three UFC wins, but things became much more difficult when he was unable to hurt his opponent in his last bout. Salikhov was awarded a controversial split decision victory that night, but against Trinaldo he will find it even more difficult to get the nod against a fighter with an iron chin.
It surprises me that oddsmakers have so much confidence in Salikhov’s ability to inflict damage on Massaranduba, as without it the fight should be very close. Considering the Brazilian also holds a massive grappling advantage, he has more than one clear path to victory here. For my money, a gamble on Trinaldo at generous 11/5 odds is too good to pass on. If time has not crept up on the Brazilian and his notorious durability remains intact, I think he will look much better than the odds project him to on Saturday night.
Posted at 1145 BST on 03/06/21
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