MMA betting tips: UFC Fight Night
2.5pts Kyle Daukaus to beat Phil Hawes at 4/5 (General)
0.5pt Kyle Daukaus to win by Submission at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Donald Cerrone to win by KO or Submission at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The UFC has faced many trials and tribulations in their attempt to remain active during the pandemic, but no event has suffered complications quite like this week’s card. With both the main and co-main events being cancelled for injury related reasons, the company has scrambled to replace their marquee fights on just a week’s notice.
Thankfully, the call was answered by both Marina Rodriguez and Michelle Waterson, who square off in a five-round headliner on Saturday night. Donald Cerrone was also able to maintain his place in the co-main event, now competing against the ever-zealous Alex Morono. Elsewhere on the card, Carlos Diego Ferreira faces off in a grappling showdown with Gregor Gillespie, whilst Kyle Daukaus and Phil Hawes compete for the spotlight as the latest prospect in the Middleweight division.
Last Chance saloon for Cowboy
DONALD CERRONE makes his 37th UFC appearance on Saturday night against Alex Morono, a late replacement who took the fight on less than a week’s notice. It is often an uphill battle for the fighter that competes without a prior training camp, as it gives them less time to get in the shape required to compete in the Octagon, and even less time to prepare for the stylistic challenges that their opponent presents.
Whilst Cerrone also faces a different stylistic puzzle to his original opponent, I expect Cowboy’s veteran experience to shine through in this fight. Currently holding the record for the most wins and finishes in UFC history, the future hall of famer can truly say that he has seen and done it all inside the cage.
Cerrone’s biggest weakness in his career has been his tendency to start slowly and allow his opponents to gather a rhythm and momentum in the opening round. In fact, six of his losses have come in the first five minutes of the fight. Considering Morono’s endurance will be compromised on short notice, the chances of Cowboy winning this contest depends largely on him surviving the early goings.
Aside from that, I think Cerrone is the better fighter in all aspects of Martial Arts, even at this stage in his career. He has a much more diverse arsenal on the feet, can seamlessly mix in takedowns and also threaten with submissions should he choose to grapple. We saw Morono struggle with the high level striking of Anthony Pettis in his last bout (an opponent that Cerrone went to a razor close decision with exactly a year ago), and The Great White’s takedown defence has always been questionable. Cerrone should therefore be in a comfortable position to pursue the finish, be it on the feet or on the ground.
It seems that the betting line for this fight is taking Cerrone’s recent record into account, as he has lost four of his last five bouts, drawing the other. Whilst this would usually be a cause for concern, the level that he has been competing against is far superior to that of Morono, who has never reached the Lightweight top 15 rankings in his career. Cerrone, on the other hand, has lost to Justin Gaethje, Tony Ferguson and Conor McGregor in recent years, who currently sit second, fifth and sixth respectively in those rankings.
Prior to that string of difficult matchups, Cerrone had finished 16 of his 23 UFC wins, and I think he is capable of finding yet another stoppage on Saturday night. Morono will push a ferocious pace early, but that is exactly the type of brawl that Cowboy has thrived on throughout his career. At 7/2, I think a stoppage win for Cerrone makes for one of the best value bets on the entire card.
Grappling dominant Daukaus
As two Middleweight prospects who earned their way into the UFC through the Contender Series, KYLE DAUKAUS and Phil Hawes will be looking to steal one another’s thunder with a victory on Saturday night.
Daukaus, alongside his Heavyweight brother Chris, has shown a well-rounded skillset so far in the Octagon; mixing together some competent striking with high level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappling. Combining these solid fundamentals with impressive durability and the endurance to fight aggressively for 15 minutes makes for a very complicated challenge for any opponent.
Hawes, however, has been consistent with his imperfections. It is widely documented that Megatron is a frontrunner that wields dangerous, fight ending power in the opening round, but fails to carry this past the five-minute mark. This was evident in his most recent fight against Nassourdine Imavov, where Hawes became less dominant with every passing minute, barely surviving the third round and even losing it 10-8 on one judge’s scorecard.
Hawes was able to win that fight by relying on his wrestling and clinch control to wind down the clock and prevent his opponent from taking advantage of his exhaustion. Against a high-level grappler like Daukaus, who specialises in sweeps and reversals from the bottom, Megatron will not have the luxury of taking breaks. If Daukaus does end up on his back, he will work tirelessly to either find a submission, throw hard elbows or navigate a way to top position.
The game plan against a flawed fighter like Hawes is relatively simple: avoid the danger in round one and make him work hard in rounds two and three. Daukaus has consistently shown that he grows into the fight, and has won the third round convincingly in both of his UFC appearances so far. If he can win either of the first two rounds as well, then victory should be within sight.
Whilst Daukaus is certainly the most likely of the two to win on the scorecards, he is more than capable of finding a submission finish himself, having done so in eight of his 11 professional bouts. Considering that the grappling in round three will be much easier against a tired opponent, there is real potential for a late finish in this fight, if not sooner. Whilst Daukaus’ striking is ever improving, the submission threat he poses is undeniable and, at 4/1, could provide an extra bit of profit to an already appealing wager.
Posted at 1300 BST on 06/05/21
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