MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 20
1pt double Gane vs Rozenstruik to end by KO/TKO and Munhoz to win at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Ronnie Lawrence to win by Decision at 5/4 (PaddyPower, Betfair)
1pt Dustin Jacoby to win by Decision at 21/10 (PaddyPower, Betfair)
Main card
By Kieran Cobley
UFC Vegas 20 takes place on Saturday night with a belter of a main event as hot prospect Ciryl Gane takes on Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a heavyweight bout.
Further down the card, bantamweight contenders Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Riveira face off.
Gane vs Rozenstruik is a fight that just has knockout written all over it. In 18 combined wins, the pair have amassed 13 knockout wins, and in a bout that is going to be striking heavy, you can imagine that will rise to 14 on Saturday night.
Rozenstruik to land knockout blow
All bar one of Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s fights have ended in a knockout and his technical striking ability allows him to set KO shots up perfectly.
Gane has recently shown what he can do in the UFC, beating former heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos by KO in December.
For this fight, it is safe just to back EITHER MAN TO WIN BY KO than to back one man over the other, and combine it with the following selection.
Munhoz can outgun slow-starter Rivera
Munhoz is a fighter I have liked for a long time. He’s a versatile striker and grappler and his movement creates problems for fighters.
Not only this, but he has shown he can keep a relentless pace going over the course of a fight.
While Jimmie Rivera is a tough opponent and can no doubt fire back, he has a tendency to slow dramatically between rounds and if Munhoz can keep pushing the pace, that should allow him to win the fight.
You also have to factor in the mental attitude Munhoz is going to bring to this fight. After losing his last two fights by decision, he will no doubt want to avoid this fight going the distance and put away Rivera as early as possible.
At 6/5, this pairs perfectly with my first selection for a double at around 5/2.
Preliminaries
By Will Dean
DUSTIN JACOBY’s return to the UFC has been one of the more interesting comeback stories in recent years. The Hanyak joined in 2011 as an inexperienced 23 year-old kickboxer, with just six professional bouts to his name. After a couple of frustrating losses he was released from the company and eventually found himself travelling the world with Glory Kickboxing, facing some of the most decorated and feared strikers in the sport.
Fast forward to 2020 and Jacoby earnt himself another UFC contract on the Contender Series, delivering one of the most one-sided fights that the show has seen so far. The American then went on to win his first UFC bout inside three minutes, demonstrating the brutal kicks that he had perfected in his time away from MMA.
Jacoby will be hoping to secure his second UFC win against Maxim Grishin, a pure counter-striker with over 40 professional bouts. Counter striking is a dangerous game in MMA, as the fighter in question is unwilling to be the aggressor and must wait patiently for their opening to engage. Whilst the knockout blow may present itself, they often find themselves behind on the judges’ scorecards.
This has been the case for Grishin so far in his two UFC appearances. Most notably in his debut against Marcin Tybura, the Russian failed to capitalize on a clear striking advantage and an opponent with a weakened chin, opting to spend the majority of the fight frozen on his feet.
Grishin managed to land a total of 52 significant strikes across both of his UFC bouts, whilst Jacoby landed more than double that number in his Contender Series bout alone, totalling 117. The American will be throwing huge shots from the moment the cage door closes, and has the potential to produce a dominate opening round against the passive Russian.
With that being said, Grishin’s durability remains unquestioned, having been knocked out just three times across 41 professional bouts (two of which came in the championship rounds). Jacoby is certainly dangerous in the opening stanza, but his power does not seem to translate to the latter half of the fight as fatigue starts to set in.
Despite cardio not being on his side, The Hanyak should be more than capable of securing at least two rounds on the judges’ scorecards against a low output opponent, possibly even scoring a 10-8 with an explosive opening five minutes. At 2/1, I am more than comfortable backing the chin of both men and siding with a Jacoby victory on the judges’ scorecards.
http://m.skybet.com/go/event/27186459/bet?sels=810981203&aff=9544&dcmp=SL_ED_UFC_VEGAS19_190221
The second fight on the preliminary card features RONNIE LAWRENCE, another contract winner from Dana White’s Contender Series, who looks to announce his arrival to the organisation with a victory over Vince Cachero.
From watching his fight on the Contender Series, Lawrence seems like an interesting prospect to keep an eye on. Whilst the 28-year-old is still developing, he already possesses a variety of skills that will cause problems for his opponents.
Firstly, The Heat comes from a karate background and fights with an awkward striking style. His offence is largely kick based, he manages distance well and will certainly have the advantage from long range against someone like Cachero, who is primarily a boxer. Lawrence also utilizes a nice leg kick, which will stifle his opponent’s forward pressure and make him much more hittable.
To get past Lawrence’s unorthodox offence on the feet, Cachero will need to get in close and let his hands go. Whilst that would be a worthy game plan against many opponents, it provides a whole new set of issues against Lawrence, who will initiate the clinch and look for a bodylock takedown if he gets crowded.
When Lawrence begins to wrestle, we really see him shine. In his Contender Series bout, he landed 12 of 17 takedowns, which shows a ridiculous degree of tenacity and endurance. He controlled his opponent on the mat for the duration of the fight, returning them to their back whenever they worked up to their feet.
Cachero will be no stranger to being taken down on Saturday night, as his defeat in his UFC debut came via similar circumstances; conceding five takedowns and being unable to get back to his feet. From what we saw in that fight, I am confident that The Heat can have similar, if not more, success with his grappling.
The way Lawrence can go from looking like Stephen Wonderboy Thompson to Khabib Nurmagomedov in the blink of an eye is truly a terrifying prospect, which is why I rate his skillset so highly.
That being said, the biggest weakness for Lawrence is his lack of finishing ability. He has never won a bout by submission and does not look to pursue them. He has three knockout victories on his record, but the durability we saw from Cachero in his UFC debut will make this seem like a near impossible task to achieve.
I like Lawrence to win this fight handily on the judges’ scorecards, dominating each round with his grappling and superior kicking game. That prop is currently available at 5/4, which I think is decent value.
Posted at 1645 GMT on 25/02/21
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