Free MMA betting tips: Midweek UFC Fight Island preview and best bets

UFC betting tips: Wednesday January 20

2pts Murphy to win by KO/TKO/DQ at 11/10

1pt Jones to win at 6/4

3pts Lungiambula v Perez to go over 1.5 rounds at 4/5

2pts Villanueva v Moreira to end in round one at 7/4

0.5pt Villanueva v Moreira to end in under 59.5 seconds at 9/1

By Kieran Cobley

Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny headline the UFC’s midweek Fight Island event in a welterweight showdown that is sure to be an exciting bout. The undercard is packed with fun fights too with some prospects thrown in for good measure.

Lerone Murphy makes his third UFC appearance against Douglas Silva De Andrade, while in the prelims, Cage Warriors double champ Mason 'The Dragon' Jones makes his UFC debut. He is part of an elite club of only three fighters to hold gold in two divisions in the promotion, along with Dan Hardy and 'The Notorious' Conor McGregor.

Murphy to make a statement

LERONE MURPHY is a star in the making for the UFC, with the Englishman possessing a fan-friendly style and knockout power in his striking.

Murphy takes on Brazilian veteran Douglas Silva De Andrade in what could be an extremely good match-up for the Manchester fighter.

De Andrade is known for the one-punch power which has helped him win 19 of his 29 pro fights by KO, but his set out leaves a lot to be decided as he is quite slow and will need to get within range to strike if he hopes to win.

Murphy’s path to victory is a lot simpler: he can use his speed to keep himself on the outside and just pick his shots at will as the Brazilian looks to close the distance.

You also have to factor in that this fight is taking place at featherweight and not at bantamweight where De Andrade usually competes, so this will be a telling factor on his cardio, likely making him tire more easily and opening up the possibility of a TKO win in the later rounds for Murphy.

At even-money, Murphy is good value to win by KO.

Jump on Jones

MASON JONES is a fighter I rate and I am thrilled that he is now getting his chance to perform on the biggest stage in MMA, although it certainly looks like he has a tough test against Mike Davis.

Jones became a double champion after venturing to welterweight in his last Cage Warriors bout against Adam Proctor, putting on a dominant striking display.

'The Dragon' is very well rounded, with his 10 wins being split over four knockouts, three submissions and three decisions and it is this versatility that is going to cause problems for Davis.

Davis is no slouch and does hold seven knockout wins of his own, but I see Jones having no issue shutting his striking down.

I expect Jones to come out aggressively throwing strikes and once the distance has been closed, he will look to get into a clinch and take down Davis from there. Once on the floor, Jones will have complete control and will look to throw enough strikes to end the fight or secure a submission.

Failing this, his strategy will at least give him an edge on the judges’ scorecards for him to win by decision.

By Will Dean

Dalcha Lungiambula and Markus Perez lock horns in the Wednesday night preliminaries, in a fight that could be one of the most competitive on the entire card.

Lungiambula is a physical specimen, with serious power and explosiveness. The Conogolese fighter has six stoppages amongst his 10 victories, with three knockouts and three submissions.

Perez is also a prolific finisher, nine of his 12 victories coming inside the distance. Maluko is much more of a submission threat than his opponent, with half his victories coming via tap out.

You can understand why the oddsmakers expect this fight to end inside the distance, but devil is in the detail. While Lungiambula possesses one-punch knockout power, just four of his 10 wins have occurred in the first half of the fight.

Along with this, Perez has a very solid chin and will be hoping to survive the opening onslaught so he can turn the tide in the later rounds. The Brazilian suffered his first knockout loss in his last bout, but this was against a pressure fighter who throws combinations. Lungiambula is much more of a single-strike proposition, and Perez can weather the early storm here.

I am convinced that Lungiambula has concerns over the reliability of his cardio over three rounds. We often see him finishing fights later because he knows he has enough left in the tank to pursue the finish, whilst already ahead on the judges’ scorecards.

Dalcha Champion also likes to mix in takedowns in this fight, in an attempt to stall the action and rack up minutes in top control. As long as he is careful to avoid the crafty submission game of Perez, I think this also works in our favour.

In short, I think Lungiambula will be aware of the importance of pacing himself against such a durable fighter, and should fight tentatively in the early goings of the bout. For that reason, I am anticipating this fight to last longer than expected and go OVER 1.5 ROUNDS with relative ease.

If there was ever a fight that I did expect to see an early finish, it would be Ike Villanueva v Vinicius Moreira.

Villanueva has 14 stoppage victories to his name, with all of these coming in the first round. The 36-year-old Texan hits incredibly hard, and has made a name for himself by barely breaking a sweat in the cage as he renders his opponents unconscious with minimal effort.

Across from Hurricane Ike is Vinicius Moreira, a dangerous submission threat with all nine of his victories coming by stoppage (eight submissions, one knockout). Any fighter who has faced Mamute will know that to get taken down will mean that a submission is following soon after. Of his nine stoppage wins, seven have come in the opening round.

If that was not enough to convince you that this fight is going to be a short burst of chaos, consider the fact that each man’s biggest strength is the other’s kryptonite.

Moreira has been knocked out in round one in three of his four losses, and the other was a first-round submission after he was knocked down. Whilst his reputation in the BJJ world proceeds him, he has shown a very poor level of striking defence in the UFC and will absolutely be hit clean by his opponent if he chooses to stand and trade.

On the other hand, Villanueva has struggled in any fight where he has been taken down, losing five times by submission. Along with this, four of his losses have come in the opening round, proving that he is more than happy to come flying out the gates with a kill-or-be-killed attitude.

With this fight promising to deliver fireworks from the opening bell, I think betting on a ROUND ONE FINISH at 7/4 is incredible value. If you wanted throw even more caution to the wind, Sky Bet offers a special on the fight to end in UNDER 59.5 SECONDS at 9/1.

Posted at 1445 GMT on 19/01/21

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