Will Dean and Kieran Cobley provide a range selections and their top analysis ahead of Saturday's UFC Fight Night action.
UFC betting tips
1.5pts Alistair Overeem to win by TKO/KO or Decision at 13/8
1pt Alistair Overeem to win by TKO/KO at 11/4
1.5pts Lara Procopio to win by Submission or Decision at 17/10
Main card
By Kieran Cobley
The UFC returns to its Apex Centre in Las Vegas for their first card in America of 2021.
The promotion’s return to base brings a fantastic card, with heavyweight legend Alistair Overeem taking on the always game Alexander Volkov in the main event.
The co-main sees former lightweight champion Frankie Edagr, who now fights at Bantamweight, taking on Cory Sandhagen in what is a difficult fight to call.
Overeem is a fighter who has been around the block a few times, and it takes something special to beat him, especially with the dominant performances he has turned in of late. As such, it is surprising to see him at 11/8 with bookmakers, while Volkov sits as the favourite at 4/7.
'The Reem' has won fights in four different decades and at 40 years old, is still a top contender, having won four of his last five fights by KO.
The only loss in that string of fights was against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who Overeem had dominated for four rounds before being caught in the last few seconds of the final round by a shot that damaged his lip enough for the referee to stop the fight, after Rozenstruik had rushed in throwing bombs.
Volkov could cause problems for Overeem. Like the Dutchman, he comes from a kickboxing background, and his long range can make it difficult for opponents to get in close.
I do have doubts over Volkov’s fight IQ though. In his 2018 fight with Derrick Lewis he had dominated proceedings and only had to run down the clock in the last few seconds to win, but instead he decided to rush at the American, who knocked him out with a heavy right hand.
For this fight, expect the action to stay mostly on the feet, which is where both men are most comfortable.
Overeem will look to close the distance and pull Volkov into his Muay Thai clinch to land heavy knees that will open up the chance for a finish.
At 11/4, a bet on Overeem to win by KO looks to be great value, and if you want to cover your bases, Overeem to win by TKO/KO or Decision at 13/8 is a good bet too.
Preliminaries
By Will Dean
In the third bout of the night, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist LARA PROCOPIO makes her return to the Octagon after an 18-month lay-off, where she meets fan-favourite Liverpudlian Molly McCann.
McCann is a hard-nosed brawler, who looks to get in close and throw powerful strikes and inflict as much damage as she can on the feet. Meatball has also recently begun integrating takedowns into her game, riding out top position in an attempt to impress the judges.
Unfortunately for McCann, her two key attributes play directly into the hands of Procopio, whose style could not be more different.
Despite being known for her grappling acumen, Procopio’s striking looked impressive in her UFC debut. Though she was on the receiving end of a loss to a highly-touted prospect in Karol Rosa (who also fights on this card), she utilised straight punches and effective head movement to tag her opponent consistently and keep it competitive.
Procopio landed 165 significant strikes in that fight, which is the fifth highest ever landed in a Women’s UFC Bantamweight bout. Against a power punching style like McCann’s, the Brazilian can use this volume to her advantage, consistently landing strikes on a slower target while using her defensive awareness to stay away from anything coming back.
McCann may look to shoot for a takedown if she is losing on the feet, which is where Procopio is even more dangerous. Training at Nova Uniao, one of the most notorious grappling gyms in Brazil, she will certainly have the talent and ability to turn any ground exchanges in her favour. McCann has struggled in her career against superior grapplers and the same fate could occur here.
Assuming the Brazilian can prevent McCann from consistently landing clean shots, I think she is in with a real chance of causing an upset on Saturday night. At 17/10, I think Procopio is great value to either win a decision or secure a submission victory.
Posted at 0915 GMT on 04/02/2021
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