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Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez vs Edgar Berlanga betting tips: Boxing preview and best bets for PPV super-middleweight title fight plus undercard details
Canelo returns to the ring this weekend when he faces Edgar Berlanga and our boxing expert Chris Oliver previews the action.
Boxing betting tips: Canelo v Berlanga
1pt Canelo to win by decision at 16/5 (William Hill)
After a quiet few weekends, big-time boxing is back on Saturday night as Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez takes on Edgar Berlanga at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Alvarez lighting up Vegas on Mexican Independence weekend has become very familiar over the years and this one could have a very familiar outcome, with Canelo (60-2-2) a best price of 1/12 (as short as 1/25) to prevail.
Now 34 and having his 66th professional contest, the favourite has a compiled a fantastic CV and he is the sport's biggest star for good reason. Canelo has consistently been in huge fights for well over a decade now, with only two defeats on his record and picking up world titles in four weight categories.
He's the current ruler at super-middleweight, thanks to a stunning run that saw him unify all four belts by beating three undefeated champions in a prolific 11-month period in 2020/21, with a quick mandatory defence thrown in there for good measure.
However, since biting off more than he could chew when stepping up to light heavyweight to challenge Dmitry Bivol in May 2022, when he was comfortably outpointed by the Russian, Canelo's desire to fight the best has seemingly waned upon his return to 168lb. Whilst avoiding the clear and present danger of compatriot David Benevidez, Canelo has recorded four consecutive routine points victories in fights he was heavily favoured to win, and choosing to face Berlanga has drawn further criticism.
Canelo v Berlanga: Big fight details
- Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas.
- Start time: 0100 BST, Sunday Sept 15, Main Event approx 0400 BST (Sun Sept 15)
- TV channel and cost: DAZN PPV (£19.99)
Berlanga is unbeaten in 22 fights (17 early) and can clearly punch, but closer inspection of his record reveals why the fans were so underwhelmed when this contest was announced.
There Puerto Rican received plenty of attention by knocking out all his opening 16 opponents in the first round, but his limitations were exposed as he stepped up in class and he followed that run of early stoppages with five lacklustre victories on the scorecards. Those performances put an emergency stop on the hype train and while he looked a lot more lively when halting the previously unbeaten Padraig McCory in six rounds last time out, this represents a huge step up in class for Berlanga.
The 27-year-old has yet to face anyone you could call world class, so it's hard to know if he is not only prepared to take on one of the best fighters on the planet but also how he will handle the pressure that comes with being involved in a Canelo fight week. That's why he can be backed at 11/1 and it would take a huge leap of faith to part with cash to support him, even at those odds.
CLICK HERE to bet on the big fight with Sky Bet
Berlanga certainly carries power, and he can be given a puncher’s chance, but even that asset may be negated by Canelo’s granite chin. I don't see an upset here and it looks a case of how, not if, Canelo registers the 61st win of his brilliant career.
Canelo by stoppage is the overwhelming favourite in the method of victory markets, with 2/5 the best you will find about that scenario, and it's not hard to see why, given the gulf in class on the form book. That would have looked a certainty a few years ago but is that value in 2024? Perhaps not.
Canelo has begun to show that all those miles on the clock are taking their toll in recent outings and his decline, albeit a slow one, could be the reason for his cherry-picking of opponents of late. No matter how good or talented you are, it is only natural to display some after effects of 19 years and 65 fights as a professional.
While always a slow starter, he has been taking longer to get going than usual recently and seems unable to go through the gears like he used to. For example, he has dropped and hurt his last three foes, but John Ryder, Jermell Charlo and Jaime Munguia all made it to the final bell after Canelo failed to step on the gas. In fact, you must go back to his fight for undisputed status at 168lb with Caleb Plant in November 2021 for his last stoppage, and even that came in the 11th round.
So, in trying to find some value here, I am tempted by the 16/5 available for Canelo winning by decision again. It comes with risks attached, as we don’t know how well Berlanga can take a punch at this level, and he will need a career-best performance to last the distance. However, the underdog is certainly improving, and he doesn’t lack self-belief. Added to that, there is the very real possibility of Canelo having declined further since we last saw him and another distance fight for the Mexican could beckon.
Canelo in rounds 7-12 is a big runner for those wanting to play the Canelo stoppage, but there is little juice in the 5/4 about that outcome and I am prepared to take my chance with the favourite winning on points. There might be some hairy moments along the way, but the Mexican’s lack of ability to finish opponents when hurt these days could make the gamble worth it in the end.
CLICK HERE to back Canelo to win by decision with Sky Bet
Canelo v Berlanga: Full fight card
- MAIN EVENT: Canelo Alvarez vs Edgar Berlanga
WBO and WBC super-middleweight titles - Erislandy Lara vs Danny Garcia
- Caleb Plant vs Trevor McCumby
- Stephen Fulton vs Carlos Castro
- Rolando Romero vs Manuel Jaimes
- Roiman Villa vs Ricardo Salas Rodriguez
- Jonathan Lopez vs Richard Medina
- Lawrence King vs Vaughn Williams
- Yoenli Hernandez vs Jose Sanchez Charles
- Bek Nurmaganbet vs Joshua Conley