It's a huge night in UFC on Saturday, with the O2 Arena hosting the eagerly-anticipated UFC London – Will Dean has three bets to consider in his preview.
MMA betting tips: UFC London
3pts Paddy Pimblett to win by KO or Submission at 5/6 (Bet365)
2pts Paul Craig v Volkan Oezdemir to end in Round 1 at 7/4 (SkyBet)
1pt Tom Aspinall to win in Rounds 1 or 2 at 7/2 (SkyBet)
Wigan’s Warrior
TOM ASPINALL returns for his second consecutive main event on home soil, having defeated Russia’s Alexander Volkov back in March. The northern fighter has looked like England’s best chance for a second UFC world champion, but a stiff test against Curtis Blaydes could derail the 29-year-old’s hopes of making history.
It is rare to see a fighter compete on five separate occasions in the UFC without facing a moment of adversity, but Aspinall has been flawless so far inside the Octagon. It seems like every time he has a fight booked, fans expect to see his defensive wrestling or cardio tested to some degree, but dominant finishes inside seven minutes have kept the naysayers waiting.
With that being said, Blaydes is the most difficult stylistic matchup in the entire division. A dedicated wrestler with the patience and cardio to dominate for 25 minutes, the American has nullified a whole host of dangerous finishers in his 19-fight career. To beat Razor Blaydes, as both Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis have done, an early finish is required.
With the patriotic crowd in his corner, I think Aspinall can rise to the occasion on Saturday night. The Wigan-based fighter has proven how dangerous he can be in the early goings, and the added submission threat will give the slower and inferior striker in Blaydes something new to worry about.
If Aspinall ventures into the unknown and this fight reaches round three, then it is fair to assume his chances of winning will be significantly reduced. Therefore, backing Aspinall to win in Round 1 or Round 2 is the bet to make at 7/2.
Paddy’s Power
Despite not featuring at the top of the billing, PADDY PIMBLETT really is the superstar to watch at UFC London. The Liverpudlian stole the show in March, with yet another first round victory after facing some early adversity. The UFC brass are well aware of the star power that Paddy The Baddy possesses, with many comparing his growing popularity to that of Conor McGregor.
The organisation has a reputation for curating the perfect matchups for their developing money-makers, and this bout against Jordan Leavitt seems no different. The Monkey King is unapologetically one-dimensional, relying solely on his submission grappling to guide him to victory.
"Can you hear that?..."
— #UFCLondon on BT Sport (@btsportufc) July 22, 2022
"Ooooohh Paddy The Baddyyyyy!"
On weight and ready to rock for #UFCLondon, @theufcbaddy joined our weigh-in show for a chat as he got off the scales 👊 pic.twitter.com/KEeMaXtmNr
Unfortunately for the American, Pimblett himself is a high-level grappler and should be able to neutralise any threats on the mat. Elsewhere, Paddy The Baddy has a significant advantage in striking and cardio, and should be able to score inflict damage on his opponent with relative ease for every second that the fight stays standing.
14 of Pimblett’s 18 victories have come inside the distance, with a five knockouts and nine submissions. A finish from strikes seems most likely against Leavitt, but the Liverpudlian has proven himself too opportunistic a submission threat to count out the possibility of the latter. Therefore, backing Pimblett to win by KO or Submission at 5/6 is still a more than good enough price to get behind.
First Fight, First Round
Scotland’s Paul Craig opens the main card action at 7pm, squaring off against Swiss knockout artist Volkan Oezdemir. Despite being the betting underdog for a third consecutive fight, The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt can never be counted out and has proven on countless occasion that he can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Remarkably, Bearjew has seen the scorecards on just one occasion in his 21-fight career, which is a true testament to his “kill or be killed” mentality. The Scotsman’s opportunistic submission ability is amongst the most prolific in UFC history, but his striking still remains a glaring weakness. Conversely, Oezdemir is a pure knockout artist that has struggled against competent grapplers in the last few years.
Stylistically, both men’s biggest strengths play into the hands of the others’ greatest weakness, increasing the chances that we see a quick finish in the main card opener. In fact, of their combined 44 fights, Oezdemir and Craig have seen stoppage in the first round on 25 occasions.
A clear clash of styles often makes for a tricky fight to predict, and the same can certainly be said here. Whether Craig manages to lock up another underdog submission, or Oezdemir silences the UK crowd with a one punch knockout, a finish is the only outcome that can be predicted with a degree of confidence. Given both men’s penchant for early finishes, and their vulnerability to the other’s skillset, a play on the Fight to end in Round 1 is certainly enticing at 7/4.
Posted at 1600 BST on 22/07/22
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