Boxing expert Chris Oliver has been amongst the winners of late and he has a strong fancy for Saturday night's bout between Anthony Yarde and Lyndon Arthur.
Recommended bets, Saturday December 5
2pts Anthony Yarde to win in rounds 7-12 at 9/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It was meant to be the homecoming party of Tyson Fury and, while those original plans were shelved, we still have an intriguing domestic dust-up to look forward on BT Sport's London show on Saturday night.
The Commonwealth light heavyweight contest between Anthony Yarde and Lyndon Arthur clearly doesn't command the same level of attention as the 'Gypsy King' would have done, but this has been eagerly anticipated among boxing fans for some time and it has the potential to be an early Christmas cracker. First scheduled for April and then July, it has made more appeal as time has gone on and while it provides a springboard for Yarde to secure another shot at world glory, Arthur is unbeaten, improving and really fancies his chances of causing a 5/1 upset.
Yarde was always going to be a heavy favourite due to his flashy knockout record and the company he has kept, most notably his brave world title challenge against Sergey Kovalev in Russia. A huge underdog that night, he was well behind when rocking the champion badly in the eighth round and was only a punch or two away from a famous victory when the bell sounded. Those exertions emptied the tank and he was stopped in the 11th, more due to exhaustion than anything else, but he won plenty of fans by going out on his shield and proved he deserves to dine at the top table. However, he's a top price of 1/7 and that could underestimate how competitive this has the potential to be.
A late starter at 17, Arthur quickly made the Great Britain squad and boxed at a high level as an amateur, including losing a big final to Joshua Buatsi, before turning professional in 2016 and subsequently racking up 17 consecutive wins. His CV is littered with plenty of early stoppages but it is in his last two outings, both going the full 12 rounds, that he has shown signs of coming of age technically. Firstly, picking up this vacant belt with a unanimous decision victory over Emmanuel Amin, and then boxing beautifully behind his excellent jab when clearly outpointing Dec Spelman at the end of July.
That is a notable form line as just six weeks later it was Yarde who faced Spelman and got rid of him in six rounds, but both these rivals boxed the Scunthorpe man in very different ways and it is hard to draw comparisons. While Arthur was constantly on the move and popping the jab in his relentless opponent's face, Yarde was more than happy to stand in range and, after looking a little rusty, he quickly forced the stoppage once he went through the gears. Those look to be big clues in how this one will play out, with the champion looking to keep it long and the challenger hunting him down in a bid to let his bombs go.
Arthur will be buoyed by how often Yarde was tagged by the limited but game Spelman, while it is worth noting that Yarde was caused all sorts of problems by Kovalev's jab in that world title tilt. If Arthur can get his authoritative lead left hand going like last time out, then closing the distance may become an issue for the shorter man.
That being said, Arthur is no Kovalev and that experience at world level can count for an awful lot here. The Russian may have been in his twilight years but was still a top-class operator and the lessons learned from that trip can only have done the 29-year-old good.
Having halted 19 of his 20 victims, his power in both hands warrants serious respect, as Kovalev will testify, and Arthur hasn't faced a puncher of this calibre so far. While it can be classed as a box ticked in that he overcame his 'gut check', Arthur was shaken quite badly by Amin in the eighth round and Yarde is unlikely to let his man off the hook if getting him rocking in similar fashion. His moderate performance against Spelman may have been down to ring rust or a lack of respect for his opponent, so it is fair to expect a better version of 'The Beast' on this occasion. Usually, he likes to use his low left hand to draw a lead from his opponent before countering with his right over the top, so Arthur will make sure none of those jabs he offers out are lazy ones or he can expect to pay for it.
Arthur may well be overpriced in what looks a fascinating contest, with the 9/1 available about him winning on the cards certainly tempting, as he's on an upward curve and we still don't know how good he can be. His sharp, quick and accurate shots could regularly catch not only Yarde coming in but also the eyes of the judges, and a case can be made for him building up a decent early lead.
He can make good use of his quicker feet but those on-the-move tactics can prove very tiring and he appeared to spend more time on the ropes in the latter stages of the Spelman fight. If he slows down and holds his feet here, Yarde should be able to justify the 1/2 about him gaining stoppage number 20 of his career. This is more likely to be after halfway, though, and the 9/5 for the heavy-handed Hackney native to end it in rounds 7-12 rates much better value. Arthur is expected to give a good account of himself and increase his stock, but the constant pressure and power of Yarde can take their toll in the end.
There is big fight action in America but Errol Spence Jr's comeback against Danny Garcia could be one to treat with caution from a punting point of view.
It is great to see Spence back in the ring after initial reports of his car accident in October 2019 suggested that much more than just his career was in threat and he was placed in intensive care. Thankfully and incredibly, he escaped with no broken bones and aims to put that all behind him this weekend in a bout screened live in the UK on Premier Sports and BoxNation.
Around 11,000 fans will be in attendance at Arlington's AT & T Stadium and they will be hoping local boy Spence can pick up where he left off, when dropping and outpointing Shawn Porter in a cracking contest last September. That followed a brilliant display when outboxing the previously unbeaten Mikey Garcia and the 30-year-old, who won his IBF welterweight title from Kell Brook in Sheffield, was very much in the pound-for-pound conversation. The big question is whether he is still the same fighter after his collision and Garcia certainly has the ability and experience to capitalise if he isn't.
A two-weight world title holder, Garcia has been a top-level fighter for the best part of a decade now and can count the likes of former champions Amir Khan, Erik Morales, Paulie Malignaggi, Zab Judah and Lamont Peterson among his victims. Versatile and technically sound with a sturdy chin, he can do it on the front or back foot and isn't used to being a 3/1 underdog.
Assuming the accident has had no ill-effects, as Spence's odds of 3/10 suggest, the favourite has all the tools to overcome this tough challenge with the edge in most departments. He's taller and longer than Garcia as well as having a slight speed advantage, so could keep this on the end of his sharp and effective jab to outbox his opponent. He also is the puncher in this fight so even if it turns into a scrap, the bigger man can prevail, with his spiteful hooks and uppercuts capable of doing damage. The size could be a key factor as Garcia's sole two defeats from 38 outings have been at 147lb, albeit narrow points losses to world-class operators in Keith Thurman and the aforementioned Porter, and his best efforts have come at light welterweight.
All this points to another victory for the unbeaten Spence and very much likely via the scorecards due to the durability of Garcia, an outcome which is a best price of 5/6 and would rate banker material if the champion hadn't got in his car whilst intoxicated 14 months ago. However, the questions over what effect that has had on Spence muddy the waters considerably and while a points win is still the most likely outcome, it's hard to bet with confidence given the circumstances.
Posted at 1140 GMT on 04/12/20
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