Joyce versus Zhang betting tips and analysis: Best bets for Saturday's TNT Sports fight

Boxing betting tips: Joe Joyce v Zhilei Zhang

2pts Zhilei Zhang to win by stoppage at 6/4 (General)

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The stakes couldn't be higher for Joe Joyce in his fascinating rematch with ZHILEI ZHANG at the Wembley Arena on Saturday night, live on TNT Sports.

Joyce's career is very much on the line after his rapid ascent into title contention was derailed when Zhang sprang a surprise victory in April. In a battle of two Olympic silver medallists, Joyce's right eye was badly damaged when force-fed a banquet of heavy left hands from the visitor and the doctor was left with no choice but to end the fight in the sixth round.

Having taken to boxing relatively late, the 38-year-old Joyce has no time to waste and, whether he likes it or not, now jumps straight back in with his conqueror in a bid to win back his mandatory position with the WBO.

With 14 stoppages on a perfect 15-fight CV, Joyce was a massive 1/9 favourite in the spring, but favourite-backers were soon sweating as Zhang's speed advantage was immediately evident and he found a home for his strong back hand with alarming regularity. Rocked several times, especially in the second round, Joyce kept coming but continued to walk on to heavy shots and the man from Putney became unusually tentative. Zhang may have been slowing a little, but the damage had already been done and when the underdog peppered Joyce's eye with yet another flurry in the sixth session, referee Howard Foster called in the doctor again for the second and final time.

As big as 6/1 first time around, 10/11 is the best you can get for Zhang this weekend and the man from China is a slight favourite with most firms, with Joyce available at a best of 11/10.

I, like most others, got sucked in by all the talk of the Joyce's chin being 'unbreakable' and was lulled into a feeling that he couldn't be hurt, which may have even been the case for the man himself. Despite clearly stating in my preview five months ago that Zhang would have great success early doors with his quicker hands and Joyce being a slow starter, I still backed the latter to wear Zhang down with his relentless work rate and walk through the fire to force another stoppage. After all, he had been doing that time and again to heavy hitters up to that point.

We're all experts after the event, though, and with the benefit of hindsight, the warning signs were there long before Zhang began detonating left-hand bombs on Joyce's face. Carlos Takam landed several big shots on Joyce and was winning the fight before being stopped in the sixth round of their encounter in July 2021, while even the very limited Christian Hammer (27-9 at the time) had success until he was halted in the fourth stanza a year later. Joyce was rightly lauded with praise after becoming the first man to stop former world champion Joseph Parker 12 months ago, but that was a gruelling contest, and the New Zealander found a home for several huge right hands that night. In fact, it was that fight that led many to believe that there was no stopping 'The Juggernaut' and his chin but fights like that can leave their mark - even when you're the one with your hand raised.

The two big talking points after the first clash were Joyce's weight and his ability to fight southpaws. Having come in just over a stone lighter than when he fought Parker, Joyce had to give away 22lb to Zhang and didn't look his usual formidable self. All eyes will be on the weigh in, and it is widely expected Joyce will be heavier this time, but the issue of handling left-handers may be trickier to fix. Although he faced plenty of southpaws in a decorated amateur career, Joyce hadn't fought one as a professional and it certainly showed in Manchester earlier this year. Zhang couldn't miss with his back hand and Joyce was unable to get his usually excellent jab off against the 'leftie' in the opposite corner. No doubt he will have been sparring plenty of ‘portsiders’ but it will be very hard finding ones to replicate Zhang, who is 6’6” and close to 280lbs and with fast hands for his size.

It couldn’t have gone much worse for Joyce last time and there is the chance it was simply an off night. He will surely be better on Saturday and there were signs that Zhang was tiring at the time of the stoppage. As I pointed out in my preview for that fight, stamina could be the 40-year-old’s main weakness as he has slowed down after halfway in the past, most notably against Filip Hrgovic on his penultimate outing. ‘Big Bang’ was a big underdog against the unbeaten Croat and having dropped and beat up his man early on, most observers thought Zhang was very unlucky not to get the nod at the end of 12 rounds. He surely would have done if he hadn't faded in the later rounds and Joyce will fancy his chances of taking over if making it into the second half on this occasion.

There is every chance Joyce, who is noted for his huge engine, would have made full use of his superior stamina if his eye hadn’t gone in April. However, the fact of the matter is that his eye didn’t stand up to the pressure and, with just five months between the two bouts, we can’t be certain it will be any different now. You can have the best chin in the world, but a weak orbital bone is another thing, and it must be a concern for Team Joyce going into the rematch.

A better version of Joyce is expected and, if he can avoid taking so much punishment early on, as well as getting his ramrod jab going, then it’s not hard to envisage him coming on strong against a tiring Zhang and gaining revenge via the scorecards, which is a very fair price of 3/1. I’m sure tweaks will have been made in training camp, but Joyce isn’t going to change much at 38 and his lack of head movement is a big worry for his supporters.

So, while a Joyce victory would come as no surprise whatsoever in a tricky fight to call, there are a lot of ‘ifs’ on his part and all the evidence at our disposal points towards a repeat rather than revenge.

Zhang doesn’t have to change anything and will have been buoyed not only by a career-best victory, but the ease with which it was achieved. Conversely, this is a real test of Joyce’s mental strength as there are sure to be a few demons there for a man who thought he was indestructible and now goes straight back in with the person who destroyed that myth.

While the left hand did all the damage to the right eye of Joyce, Zhang’s right hook and work to the body also gave the Englishman plenty to worry about. The visitor will need to start fast again but he’s very much expected to do so, and the opposite applies to Joyce, who is unlikely to defy his reputation for being slow out of the blocks.

Chris Eubank is a recent example of someone whose supposed granite chin was cracked in a surprise knockout defeat against Liam Smith, before bouncing back to gain revenge in the rematch earlier this month. However, the big difference there was that Eubank did have some success in the first contest and the ending came out of the blue, whereas Joyce did very little right last time, and he suffered a sustained beating from start to finish.

Admittedly, the 6/4 about Zhang scoring another stoppage victory is hardly stunning value, but that looks the most likely outcome on what we have seen so far. Unless Joyce can make major changes from last time, he could be in for a very painful night again. It may be that a bigger man with faster hands and a southpaw stance is all wrong for Joyce, and if that is the case, it won’t have changed in the five intervening months.

• CLICK HERE to back Zhang to win by stoppage with Sky Bet

Posted at 1100 BST on 22/09/23

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