Boxing betting tips: Saturday February 20
3pts Jordan Gill by decision at 20/21 (Betfred)
1pt Florian Marku to win by stoppage at 19/10 (Betfred)
0.5pt Josh Kelly and David Avanesyan to draw at 18/1 (BetVictor)
If last weekend is anything to go by then we are in for an eventful run of shows behind closed doors in the coming weeks.
Saturday's bill marked the return of the sport on these shores and produced the biggest upset in a UK ring for some time, as Josh Warrington lost his unbeaten record to unknown Mexican Mauricio Lara in brutal fashion.
There will be no shock results in this week's main event as the bookies are struggling to split Josh Kelly and David Avanesyan in their European welterweight title showdown, with the only surprise being if this doesn't turn out to be a really good fight.
This is fourth-time lucky for a highly anticipated scrap, as Kelly pulled out on the morning of their first attempt in December 2018, their March 2020 showdown was the first victim of Covid-19, and last month's date also fell by the wayside when the UK Government banned boxing in January.
Originally the slight underdog, Kelly now edges favouritism at 8/11, but in this classic clash of potential versus experience, it really does come down to which of those two you prefer when it comes to parting with your cash.
A 2016 Olympian blessed with bundles of natural ability, Kelly has long been tipped for big things and expectations have been only increased by top trainer Adam Booth repeatedly saying he is the most talented fighter he has ever coached. With blurring hand speed and possessing every shot in the book, his unorthodox style is pleasing on the eye as he seems to slip punches effortlessly and fire his own from all sorts of unusual angles.
The ease with which he raced to his first eight wins meant he was raised in class quicker than most and his wide-margin points wins (10 rounds) over the previously unbeaten Przemylsaw Runowski and the experienced Wiston Campos last time sandwiched a draw with Ray Robinson in New York. The latter result was seen as disappointing for Kelly, but Robinson has mixed in top company and had just drawn with big-punching contender Egidijus Kavaliauskas, who went on to give a good account of himself when losing his unbeaten record to the brilliant Terence Crawford.
The same Kavaliauskas also stopped Avanesyan in 2018, so Kelly has the edge on that line of form, but the Russian's overall CV is much more impressive. Prior to that six-round defeat he beat an ageing version of the great Shane Mosley before a creditable points loss to Lamont Peterson for the WBA title, and he has looked better than ever since the Kavaliauskas reverse. The 32-year-old went into the lion's den to take the European strap away from the heavy-handed Kerman Lejarraga in nine rounds before repeating the dose inside a round in the rematch, and returned to Spain for another quick stoppage over Jose del Rio when last seen.
While Kelly has all the flashy skills, Avanesyan doesn't do anything brilliantly but he does everything well and this very rounded switch-hitter is no doubt the toughest test of the challenger's career to date.
Backers of the champion will quite rightly point to how the younger man appeared to tire when surrendering a good early lead against Robinson over 10 rounds and that their man does the championship distance of 12 rounds comfortably. He also has a good chin and with Kelly's power proving less effective as the quality of his opponents has improved, the favourite is unlikely to get rid of his durable opponent early and will need to display improved stamina with plenty of rounds expected.
Another criticism of 'Pretty Boy' Kelly is he can switch off at times and tends to fight in bursts, and he will be punished if doing so here with Avanesyan expected to be applying constant and educated pressure.
The flip side to that argument is that Kelly is a very effective counterpuncher and has always looked at his when best somebody takes the fight to him, so Avanesyan being on the front foot can play to his strengths. With lightning-quick reflexes and excellent head movement, Kelly can make his man miss and pay with regularity, and his speed advantage could be a huge factor in this bout.
What's the best bet in Josh Kelly's fight?
Kelly is certainly going to have to show more than he has so far to pass this very stern test, but you get the impression that there is plenty more to come from the Sunderland man and that is what makes it such a tricky fight to call. Another variable that is hard to predict is how they will each handle the layoff, as neither has fought for 14 months and we have seen how the lockdown-enforced break can affect fighters very differently.
There was controversy with the scoring of Zelfa Barrett's points win over Kiko Martinez seven days ago and we could have another hotly-debated decision this week, with this contest odds-on (5/6) to go the distance, and it could be case of whether you prefer the clearer, eye-catching work of Kelly or the constant endeavour of Avanesyan.
Given the recent home bias by the judges on these shores, Kelly by decision may be the most likely outcome, but that is plenty short enough at 6/4. A tricky fight to score brings the DRAW into the equation and, in a fight I don't feel comfortable staking heavily on, a small play on that outcome at 18/1 could give you a real run for your money.
Where are the best bets on the undercard?
Speaking of dodgy decisions, another disputed scorecard could have really affected the odds in what looks the most interesting bout of the undercard, between FLORIAN MARKU and Rylan Charlton.
Despite appearing to win fairly comfortably, the former had his perfect record blemished (now 7-0-1) when only awarded a draw against Jamie Stewart in December and he would probably be much shorter than 8/13 this weekend had he made it 8-0-0 that night.
Charlton (6/4) gets another chance to shine after upsetting the previously unbeaten Joe Laws with a third-round stoppage in October and also has one draw to go with his six wins.
Both men like to get on with things and will be putting plenty of mustard on their shots from the off, so this eight-rounder should be fun while it lasts and Marku can come out on top in the gunfight. The Albanian has plenty of experience from his days as a kickboxer and, likely to relish not having to go looking for his Norwich-based opponent, he can claim a sixth STOPPAGE WIN at 19/10.
With Lara's shock win over Warrington still fresh in the memory, JORDAN GILL and Robbie Davies Jr will be well aware of the perils of facing Mexican opponents at the Wembley Arena.
The former takes on former world title challenge Cesar Juarez, whose record of 25-9 features plenty of good names, and Gill will have to be wary of his power. The visitor may have seen better days, though, while the Cambridgeshire native's career is on an upward trajectory and he can justify 1/10 favouritism in good style here.
Gill boxed beautifully behind his jab to beat Reece Bellotti on points during Matchroom's Fight Camp in the summer and the talented featherweight looks a very solid bet at 20/21 to repeat those tactics for another VICTORY ON THE SCORECARDS.
Davies Jr may have a tougher night's work against Gabriel Gollaz Valanzuela, who is on a good winning streak and the 26-year-old will be coming over with plenty of ambition.
Both have 22 wins and two losses to their name (Valanzuela one draw) and the Liverpudlian is a top price of 1/6 about being the one to gain victory number 23, but we are yet to really see what mark his war with Lewis Ritson 16 months ago has left on him (one routine win since) and I wouldn't be in a hurry to take those prohibitive odds.
If that defeat in Newcastle did put miles on the clock for the favourite, we will find out here and Valanzuela could make odds of 9/2 look a bit too big.
Posted at 1120 GMT on 19/02/21
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