Our Simon Crawford believes Anthony Crolla will fall short for a second time when he faces Jorge Linares.
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There has never been a dull moment in the rollercoaster boxing career of Anthony Crolla.
Success has come only after adversity and on Saturday night Crolla once more finds himself with his back against the wall.
The popular Mancunian, 30, faces a rematch with the formidable Jorge Linares in front of his own fans as he looks to win back the WBA world lightweight title he lost to the three-weight world champion on points back in September.
The first half of the fight was nip and tuck, but towards the end of the sixth round the 31-year-old Venezuelan (41-3, 27KOs) caught Crolla with a clubbing overhand right that visibly stunned him.
He was backed up against the ropes and grimly hanging on against a sustained Linares attack when the bell went at a crucial time.
Crolla did recover his composure but there was no doubt that one punch was the turning point in a hard-fought contest that Linares was given 115-114, 115-113 and 117-111 on the cards - and there were no complaints.
My abiding memory of the fight is the last two rounds when Linares showed all his ringcraft to box off the back foot and launch lightning attacks before getting back out of range, which stopped Crolla producing the big finish he needed to have any chance of winning.
It was so very clever and on the night he seemed to have an answer to everything that Crolla (31-5-3, 13KOs) threw at him.
So now we are going to be treated to a second instalment and I believe this one has the potential to be even better than the first.
Obviously Crolla will need to come up with a different gameplan this time as ultimately the first one did not work, but he believes it could go the full 12-round distance once again.
"We have quickened things up a little bit, and there are certain shots there that we feel we didn't capitalise on last time and plan on doing it this time," he said.
"I'm very much more business-minded. My head is just totally on the job.
"I am always confident and believe in myself, and the harder and smarter you train, the more confident you get.
"It could be another long fight - I've prepared for 12 hard rounds as always. But whether it is a points decision or not, I believe it is a different result this time."
Linares is far too experienced to rest on his laurels and has warned Crolla he is better prepared himself than he was for the first meeting.
"He knows he has had to work harder in order to get back what he feels is his," Linares said. "But the only problem is I have come even better prepared as well.
"I'm coming in and doing whatever is necessary to win more convincingly than I did in September.
"I think this will be a faster-paced fight, and I'm ready for whatever comes."
I do think the pace of the fight can be crucial. Crolla is supremely fit and I feel he needs to set a fast pace from the first bell and test Linares, try to force mistakes out of him.
Certainly after Crolla was rocked in that sixth round in their first clash, Linares fought the remainder of the fight very much on his own terms and that can't be allowed to happen again.
Bearing in mind what he has been through, Crolla's mental strength can never be brought into question.
Back in December 2014, he tackled burglars at a neighbour's house, was hit by a brick and suffered a fractured skull and a serious injury to his ankle.
It was life-threatening, let alone potentially career-ending but Crolla battled back and earned a world title shot against Darleys Perez in July 2015.
Yet there was more heartbreak when it was controversially called a draw even though the avid Manchester United fan looked to have won it.
But he made no mistake in the rematch, stopping him in the fifth with a left hook to the body.
Ismael Barroso was stopped in the seventh in Crolla's first defence, also with a body shot before that loss to Linares.
Grit and determination he has in bundles and as a fighter Crolla does everything well - solid jab, good movement, power in both hands.
But sometimes you come up against a nemesis and unfortunately for 'Million Dollar' I feel Linares could be his.
There is little between them physically and to come to Manchester twice means Linares is not lacking courage.
But where I feel he has the crucial edge is in experience.
This will be his 11th world-title fight and that is why he is such a ring general. Linares will enter the ring on Saturday night with a gameplan, but in the blink of an eye he will be able to revert to plan B, plan C, plan D and so on.
He's not lost for five years and undoubtedly is one of the best fighters in the world.
Despite some boxing experts claiming this is a 50/50 fight, it's not and that is why Linares is the odds-on favourite across the board with the layers.
I think Crolla will have some success, especially if he can work the body, but Linares just seems to have his number so unless the home favourite can find a knockout punch I see a similar outcome to their first meeting.
The champion just seems to have that little but more in all the necessary areas and I think he will once again win via points, which is a general 6/4.
Crolla will push him all the way but I think Linares will just know a little bit too much for him as he did in their epic first meeting.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports 1
Posted at 1245 GMT on 23/03/17
