Boxing expert Chris Oliver has enjoyed an excellent run of late and he's keen on Luke Campbell at the prices ahead of Saturday's clash with Ryan Garcia.
Free boxing tips: Garcia v Campbell
3pts Luke Campbell to beat Ryan Garcia at 3/1
0.5pt Campbell to win in rounds 9-12 at 20/1
We don't have to wait long for the first big fight of 2021 as LUKE CAMPBELL travels to Texas to face Ryan Garcia in a fascinating contest on Saturday night.
The British man represents the toughest assignment so far for the much-hyped and very popular American and, unlike 'Canelo' Alvarez versus Callum Smith in the same US state a fortnight ago, UK fans won't have to pull an all-nighter, with the ring walks for this eagerly-anticipated event on DAZN scheduled for 11pm our time.
These classic clashes between a highly-regarded prospect and seasoned top-level fighter are the ones I love most, where we get to find out if the hype is justified or whether the step up is too much, too soon. This sort of crossroads bout often divides opinion down the middle but that couldn’t be further from the truth with regards to the betting patterns here, as the money hasn't stopped pouring in for Garcia since the books opened. With little to split them on the early lines a couple of months ago, the Garcia gamble has really gathered pace in recent weeks and he is now a red-hot favourite at 1/3, with Campbell continuing to drift at 3/1.
While the disparity in odds is eye-catching, it is no surprise that the money has come for the home fighter as he has been arguably the most talked about young boxer in America for a while now. If this contest was won on Instagram followers then those odds would be ridiculously generous, with Garcia's 7.8 million highlighting how he has crossed over into the mainstream market in the States, and many will know the part-time model more for his exploits outside the ring than in it.
With the flashy talk to match his good looks, he has impressively honed his skills for self-promotion as well as boxing at such a young age, which is quite the opposite of his opponent. The quiet Campbell has never been a big talker and, despite an Olympic gold medal and two world title challenges to his name, has been quite a hard sell for Matchroom since turning professional. And he has a mere 174k Instagram followers, in case you were wondering.
So, is Garcia the real deal or overhyped? If the jury was still out prior to 2019, his last three outings have not only validated the claims that he can go all the way to the top but also earned him a reputation as a fearsome puncher. The beating he gave Jose Lopez over two rounds was enough for the Puerto Rican not to get off his stool at the start of the third stanza, while Romero Duno and Francisco Fonseca both looked serious tests for Garcia on paper but neither man made it into the third minute of their respective bouts.
Those first-round demolition jobs were ultra-impressive, especially the latter, as Fonseca had previously gone eight rounds with big-punching champion Gervonta Davis but was knocked out cold with a brutal left hook after just 80 seconds. Like his promoter and mentor Oscar De La Hoya, Garcia has a fight-ending weapon in that lead left hook and, at 22, he looks to be really developing physically now. Add to that his lightning-quick hands, excellent timing and cool demeanour in the ring, and it's easy to see why he is being talked about so much.
While Campbell is 11 years older and at the opposite end of his career in that respect, he is fresh for his age and is arguably still improving. With that gold at London 2012 accompanying his European medal of the same colour and a World silver, one of Britain's most decorated amateurs is yet to deliver on that potential in the paid ranks, but he has made great strides since switching to Shane McGuigan's gym and can consider himself a little unlucky not to have won a world title.
Despite his first attempt against Jorge Linares coming just two weeks after his father passed away, and being dropped in the second round, the Hull man recovered in fine style and pushed the champion to a split decision which could have gone either way. Then when he was mandatory for the vacant WBC belt, Campbell saw the very beatable Javier Fortuna replaced as the opponent from nowhere by pound-for-pound great Vasyl Lomachenko on his last outing in August 2019. Although widely outpointed that night at the O2 in London, Campbell emerged with plenty of credit as he made the great Ukrainian work and think hard for every round, and confirmed he is more than capable of winning world honours in the process.
Has Campbell got 'unlucky' again here and come up against a very special talent for the second fight running? There is no doubt Garcia has the tools to go all the way and a decisive victory over the Brit would be a real statement. Clearly his power is serious and makes the 11/10 available for another stoppage win a big runner, but this is a marked step up in class for the favourite and there are number of reasons I would be hesitant about jumping in at those odds.
Aside from the obvious of the LA native never having faced anyone with Campbell's pedigree and experience at the top level, Garcia may not be the best prepared for the style in front of him on his biggest night to date. He has excelled against typical Latin American styles and generally shorter opponents, who have played into his hands by being on the front foot and walking into beautifully-timed shots by the quicker man, but he now faces an upright, European style which is something he won't have seen too much of.
Also, he is used to being taller, longer and quicker, but Campbell matches him in dimensions and is also noted for his hand speed, which could negate Garcia's common advantages somewhat. Another factor could be that Campbell is a southpaw, as Garcia has faced very few of those in his career to date and that could also make it harder for him to land his trademark lead left hook.
Both men have long levers and good jabs so, with Campbell being more defensively minded, this could be a bit of a chess match early doors. That would not only appear to suit the visitor, who is more accustomed to that type of fight, in terms of style, but should also ensure we get plenty of rounds - and Campbell's experience can prove crucial the longer the fight goes on.
As impressive as Garcia's quick blowouts of good opposition have been of late, they could count against him if this goes deep and he finds himself in the 'championship rounds' for the first time in his life. Neither his stamina nor his chin have really been tested since his lightweight debut against Carlos Morales in September 2018, when Garcia was well in control before tiring quite alarmingly and being hurt on his way to a majority decision victory in that 10-rounder. Questions in those departments still need to be answered by the younger man, while we know his opponent does 12 rounds very well and has proven he can cope with adversity.
As we saw recently with Daniel Dubois against Joe Joyce in London, big-punching prospects can run out of ideas when they fail to get rid of someone and Campbell knows enough, as well as having plenty left in the tank, to make sure we get all the answers we need about Garcia here. 'King Ry' may well be destined to be crowned lightweight champion very soon, but I am happy to pay to find out at 3/1 and side with the man with the form in the book.
