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Free boxing betting tips: Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez v Avni Yildrim preview
Boxing betting tips: Saturday February 27
2pts Saul Alvarez rounds 4-6 at 15/8 (Paddy Power)
2pts Joseph Parker to win in rounds 7-12 at 2/1 (Paddy Power)
No problems expected for Canelo
Promoter Frank Warren began the year battling Covid-19 and his luck hasn't improved a great deal when it comes to his first show of 2021.
We should have been talking about Carl Frampton bidding to become a three-weight world champion against Jamel Herring, but the Belfast man had to withdraw with a hand injury, and then the new headline contest of Anthony Cacace versus Lyon Woodstock fell at the final hurdle when the latter tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday. The show still goes ahead on BT Sport but, with mainly prospects and relatively unknown quantities getting their turn in the spotlight, it could be a minefield for punting.
Thankfully, there are some big names in action on DAZN's two live shows and they don't come much bigger than Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez, who is expected to make light work of Avni Yildrim in front of a decent crowd at the home of the Miami Dolphins in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Alvarez v Yildrim fight information
- Date: Saturday February 27
- Time: 2000 ET (0100 GMT)
- Main event (approx.): 2300 ET (0400 GMT)
- Broadcaster: DAZN
The Mexican superstar is 1/33 (as short as 1/100) to record win number 55 (one loss, two draws) and the fight is generally regarded as a mismatch, but if anyone has earned an easy touch it is Canelo. This is the mandatory for the WBC super middleweight belt he won against the division number one Callum Smith in mid-December, and he is set to face another unbeaten champion in Billy Joe Saunders in just over two months' time, so doing his bit to keep the sanctioning bodies happy in between is necessary if he wants to achieve his goal of completing the set at 168lb.
In an age where the elite tend to only fight twice a year, this busy spell from the pound-for-pound king should be praised and the criticism of the fight has not necessarily been aimed at him, but more at how a man who lost his last fight has ended up as mandatory challenger.
Granted, Yildrim's title bid against Anthony Dirrell ended in unsatisfactory circumstances, when a nasty cut over the latter's eye was ruled to have been caused by a clash of heads and they went to the judges, but the Turk was unsuccessful all the same and there is nothing else on his record (21-2) that suggests he deserves this opportunity. He was handed his first defeat in conclusive and brutal fashion by Chris Eubank Jr in their three-round tear-up in 2017 and nearly blew his shot at Dirrell when labouring to a majority decision win over 46-year-old trial horse Lolenga Mock.
Inactivity has often proved a bit of a leveller during these lockdown times but the underdog doesn't even have that on his side, as the Dirrell bout was two years ago whereas Alvarez should be sharp following that Smith return. Not that there were any signs of rust from Canelo, who turned what was deemed by most to be a real challenge against the much bigger Liverpudlian into a one-sided beating over 12 rounds. Not only did he pick up where he left off in a brilliant 2019, which saw him beat Daniel Jacobs at middleweight and then jump up to light heavyweight to stop Sergey Kovalev, but he actually looks to still be improving.
What's the best bet for Alvarez v Yildrim?
Shock results have become commonplace during the pandemic, with the biggest coming a fortnight ago when Mauricio Lara battered Josh Warrington, but a Yildrim victory would eclipse any upset seen in a boxing ring this century. Complacency looks Canelo's biggest opponent but unfortunately for the 20/1 outsider, the champion is as dedicated as they come and appears as hungry as ever as he bids to put a stamp on his greatness with this unifying run at super middleweight.
The favourite is once again the smaller man but we are now used to seeing him use that to his advantage with his sublime upper body movement enabling him to slip punches and counter with power and accuracy. So much so that the much taller Smith was eventually reluctant to throw, even when Canelo was stood stationary right in front of him, as he knew he would be made to miss and pay. Even when he is hit cleanly, he has shown to have one of the best chins in the business and that makes the odds of Yildrim winning with a 'lucky' punch even longer here. Equally effective on the front or back foot, Canelo has knockout power in either hand and a superb boxing brain.
Yildrim is known for constantly going forward and looking to put pressure on his opponents with his wild and aggressive approach. However, this leaves him wide open for counters, as Eubank highlighted, and Alvarez won't need asking twice to capitalise on such opportunities. Given who he is up against, the visitor may show a little more respect to begin with and Canelo often likes to just 'take a look' in the opening session or two, but this should be one-way traffic once they begin to trade and a Canelo stoppage in the first half is available at just 4/11.
The size advantage of Yildrim may be enough to see him through the first quarter, but possibly not much further given the heavy artillery likely to be coming in his direction, and the champion to retain the belts in ROUNDS 4-6 at 15/8 could be the way to profit from this mismatch.
While it might not go down as well with my wife, I am looking forward to the novelty of live big-fight action as an accompaniment to breakfast as Joseph Parker and Junior Fa do battle for local bragging rights in New Zealand on Saturday morning (around 7am Saturday UK time).
This is probably the biggest bout ever to happen on the island and is really big news down under, but it came so close to not happening when Auckland was forced into a snap lockdown after a Covid-19 outbreak. Those restrictions were lifted on Monday and this highly-anticipated contest is good to go, much to delight of the Kiwi fans.
These two shared a ring on four occasions as amateurs and the score is level at two wins apiece, but it is Parker who has raced ahead as a professional and is a top price of 1/9 to claim this decider.
Parker captured the WBO heavyweight title with a win over Andy Ruiz Jr in 2017 (form which worked out very well) and successfully defended it before heading to the UK for three big fights. The first saw him outpoint Hughie Fury before a huge unification match with Anthony Joshua in Cardiff, where he took the Watford man the distance for the first time but fell well short on the cards. His up-and-downer with Dillian Whyte just four months later in July 2018 was much closer and more exciting, but it ended in another points defeat for Parker. Three routine stoppage wins have followed and he is now aiming to prove he deserves another title shot.
For Fa, it is case of attempting prove he belongs on the world stage as he has fought nobody of real note in racking up 19 straight wins in the paid ranks, and this is the acid test. While ultimately picking up a wide decision, Fa was given plenty to think about by Devin Vargas (21-5) when last seen in November 2019, and he was dropped and unimpressive when going the distance with veteran Dominick Guinn five months earlier. A 7/2 chance as he steps up markedly in class, will Fa sink or swim?
A skilful amateur with a big frame, the underdog will be looking to keep this long and use his height and reach to box on the outside. However, as Vargas and Guinn showed, it isn't too tricky to find a way past those long levers and the quicker Parker should be able to do the same to land his shots. There are also questions marks over Fa's stamina and any issues with his engine may not have been helped by minor surgery ahead of their original date of December 12, forcing him to have a break from training before resuming last month.
This all points to the younger and busier Parker wearing his man down, with the 2/1 available about him winning in ROUNDS 7-12 rating much better value than the 8/11 for the more experienced man gaining a stoppage at any time. The favourite is a good all-rounder with a sound jab and respectable power, and his advantages in most departments should be enough for him to prevail.
Posted at 1130 GMT on 26/02/21
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