Our tipster Simon Crawford feels world champion Kell Brook must be sided with at big odds to beat Errol Spence Jr in Sheffield this weekend.
Recommended bet: Brook v Spence
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It seems more then a little odd that an experienced world champion fighting in his home city should find himself in the role of underdog.
But that's exactly what Kell Brook is as he makes the fourth defence of his IBF world welterweight crown against highly-touted American Errol Spence Jr on Saturday night.
It is being billed as a 50-50 clash but the layers don't see it that way and have Spence odds-on across the board to win the fight, with Brook at almost 2/1 in places.
So why is it that the 31-year-old Briton (36-1, 25KOs) is now being doubted?
Spence arrives with a big reputation but it is perhaps concerns over Brook rather than the challenger's skill that has dictated the pre-fight odds.
Brook stunned the boxing world last year when he announced he was jumping up to middleweight to fight unified granite-fisted champion Gennady Golovkin.
Although he fought bravely, it proved a step too far and he was pulled out by his corner in the fifth round after suffering a broken eye socket.
After successful surgery, Brook again caused a surprise by confirming he was moving back down to welterweight to take on Spence - arguably the best fighter in the division outside of the reigning world champions.
The Yorkshireman has always been noted as a big 147lbs fighter who did not find making the weight easy.
But on this occasion he has had to come down from 160lbs as he was against Golovkin. It's not just a case of eating less to lose a few pounds, he put on extra muscle to go up the weight and now he has had to shed it in order to come back down safely.
So there are concerns about weight and what that Golovkin defeat took out of him, plus the fact he will be sharing the ring with a very dangerous fighter, as Brook has been quick to acknowledge.
"I think he is a very, very good fighter," said Brook. "He is a young, hungry lion. He is challenging for the world title. I have been there, I know what it takes.
"I know what he is feeling and I also know what it is like to defend that world title, so I have seen both sides of the coin.
"Dominic (Ingle) has put me through it in training, I have had to dig in deep, and I am excited. I am ready for a war. I prepared for a war and I prepared for a fantastic fight."
Unbeaten southpaw Spence (21-0,18KOs) is a fighter America is heralding as "the next big thing" and certainly he has done everything asked of him so far.
The 27-year-old already has some notable scalps on his record including European champion Leonard Bundu, Chris Algieri and Chris van Heerden and firmly believes it will be his time to conquer on Saturday evening.
"Kell has a lot of great skills but I welcome the step up," he said. "It's something I've been asking for for a long time, and I'm finally getting my opportunity.
"This is my time, this is my era, this is my time to shine, this is my time to get the belts, this is my time to unify, this is my time to become the undisputed welterweight champion of the world."
However, I think Brook will relish the role of underdog as, after all, he has made a habit of defying the odds throughout his career.
Few gave him a chance when he travelled Stateside back in 2014 to fight Shawn Porter for the IBF belt, but he deservedly took a points decision on the champion's home patch - an achievement precious few British fighters have been able to pull off down the years.
Then during a family holiday in Tenerife he was slashed in the thigh and initially there were doubts whether he would walk again, let alone box, but once more he showed his fighting spirit by battling back to full fitness.
After losing to Golovkin, Brook had plenty of options at other weights but the fact he has opted to come back down to 147lbs tells you how much this title means to him.
And the fact the fight is taking place at Bramall Lane, home of his beloved Sheffield United FC, is another tick in the plus column. Few fighters get the chance to perform in a big open-air arena and I believe a partisan crowd in the Steel City will serve to inspire him.
Much is being made of the fact Spence is a southpaw, but having spent all of his boxing life at the Ingle gym, Brook will have sparred every day with 'lefties' and it is a well-known fact he has beaten every southpaw he has faced.
Let us not forget either that this is a huge step-up for the challenger who will be fighting outside North America for the first time in his professional career.
The likes of Algieri and Van Heerden are solid operators but fringe wold level at best and Spence will walk to the ring with the expectation of a nation on him - that really is big pressure on young shoulders.
But there are two key factors as to why I think Brook will win on Saturday night.
The first is experience.
Brook has had more knockouts than Spence has had fights and dealing with such a big occasion is going to be crucial.
You can be the best fighter in the world but if you freeze on the big stage then you are as vulnerable as anyone else.
Secondly, and most importantly, Brook always finds a way to win.
Whatever obstacles have been put in his way and even when he has looked down and out, he has still somehow emerged victorious by digging deep and showing his resolve.
Taking on Golovkin was a calculated risk that did not pay off, even though he rattled the bigger man on several occasions.
But back down at 147 and fighting people his own size, I would happily back him against anyone.
He has the skill and under-rated power - but above all his grit and determination are second to none.
I think the early part of the fight could be a real tear-up as each man looks to stamp his authority, but by halfway I expect the champion to take over and box his way to a points win which is a shade under 4/1 with Marathon Bet.
Underdog he may be, but I expect Brook to bite the layers on this occasion.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports Box Office
Posted at 1235 BT on 25/05/17 .
