Boxing tips: Betting preview and best bets including Katie Taylor and Vasyl Lomachenko
Boxing expert Chris Oliver produced 11/8 and 11/2 winners in his last preview – Vasyl Lomachenko heads the staking plan for this weekend's action.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday October 29
2pts Vasyl Lomachenko by decision 5/4 (bet365)
1pt Katie Taylor rounds 6-10 9/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Kiko Martinez by stoppage 9/2 (BetVictor)
Hot on the heels of the hugely successful all-female card in London a fortnight ago, KATIE TAYLOR returns to the ring against Karen Elizabeth Carabajal at the Wembley Arena.
This has been a game-changing year for women's boxing and nobody has played a bigger part in that than Taylor, whose epic contest with Amanda Serrano sold out Madison Square Garden in April.
In the first women's headline bout at New York's iconic venue, Taylor and Serrano thrilled the noisy 18,000-plus crowd with 10 brilliant rounds of back-and-forth action in a fight of the year contender. The pulsating and dramatic encounter could have gone either way on the scorecards, but it was Taylor who retained all her lightweight belts via a split decision and left fans craving a rematch.
Unfortunately, the return with Serrano couldn't be agreed for this year and instead Taylor faces an Argentinian who is pretty much unknown outside of her home country. Carabajal has won all her 19 outings to date, but she has only fought in Argentina so far and the level of her opposition has been way below what she faces now, against arguably the biggest female fighter out there.
As short as 1/50 and a best price of 1/16, Taylor's greatest danger to her unbeaten record here is seemingly complacency. An Olympic champion who also won gold five times at the Worlds and is a two-weight title holder as a professional, there is very little left for the 36-year-old to achieve and getting up for this assignment may not have been easy following the highs of New York six months ago.
That said, even a below-par version of Taylor should have too much for Carabajal, a 16/1 underdog who hasn't boxed at world level before or in such a big event as this DAZN-televised show.
Carabajal is tall and utilises her long levers well with a good jab, but Taylor's much quicker hands and feet can negate that disadvantage in reach for her to get close enough to land her rapid combinations. That speed edge should allow the favourite to raid successfully and with regularity, especially as Carabajal begins to tire.
You have to go back nine fights and over three years since Taylor's last stoppage victory, a ninth-round TKO against Rose Volante, so it's no surprise to see another decision victory for the Irish superstar long odds-on at 4/11. That is the most likely outcome, but there are a few reasons to suggest the champion could come close to the stoppage (13/5).
The most obvious is the huge step up in class for Carabajal, but she has also spent most of her career fighting at lower weights and she may not be used to being hit as hard, or as often, as is likely against Taylor. Also, with only two stoppage wins on her CV, the challenger clearly doesn't carry much power and Taylor should have little fear of what is coming back.
If Taylor is to halt Carabajal, it is likely to come later in the fight and the 9/2 about that happening in the second half of this 10-rounder could be the value in what should be a one-sided main event. At the prices, TAYLOR IN ROUNDS 6-10 gets the vote.
The hunger burns as strong as ever 💪 @KatieTaylor #TaylorCarabajal
— Matchroom Boxing (@MatchroomBoxing) October 24, 2022
Knockout value in London
There may also be some value to be found as Jordan Gill takes on KIKO MARTINEZ in what appears the most interesting fight of the night in London.
Gill pulled off one of the most unlikely comebacks in recent years when, in bad trouble and with two perforated ear drums, he landed a haymaker right-hand to knockout our Karim Guerfi in February. He is a 4/11 favourite, but Martinez looks a very live underdog and support for him over the last week means he is now a top price of 5/2.
Martinez is a 36-year-old with 56 fights under his belt, but he still carries serious power, as Kid Galahad will testify. The veteran produced arguably the upset of 2021 when sparking Galahad out to claim the IBF featherweight title last November, and while he lost his first defence when stopped by Josh Warrington in March, he still had enough left in the tank to break the Leeds fighter's jaw in the process.
A nice mover with a lovely jab, Gill certainly has the skills to frustrate the visitor and box his way to a points victory (10/11). That is a big possibility, but the favourite has struggled with pressure fighters before and backers of a MARTINEZ STOPPAGE at 9/2 could get a good run for their money.
Gill was dropped three times on his way to a shock defeat to Mario Enrique Tinoco in 2019 and was one punch away from being stopped for a second time in his career against Guerfi earlier in the year. Those pieces of evidence are enough to tempt me in on the big price about the power of Martinez winning the day.
Ring-rust makes for easy decision
In the early hours of Sunday morning, Sky Sports screen VASYL LOMACHENKO's return against Jamaine Ortiz in New York.
Injuries and the invasion of his home country mean we haven't seen as much of Lomachenko as we would have liked recently, but the Ukrainian remains one of the most gifted and best fighters on the planet to watch.
His points loss to Teofimo Lopez in October 2020 was blamed on a lingering shoulder problem and he has only boxed twice since, but he easily dealt with Masayoshi Nakatani (TKO 9) and Richard Commey (UD) and he's expected to do the same to Ortiz.
While unbeaten in 17 (one draw), Ortiz has been swimming in calmer waters than these and former super featherweight champion Jamel Herring, who he outpointed in May, is by far the best name on his record. That was a good victory, and the well-schooled switch-hitter has plenty of potential, but this looks too much, too soon for the American.
Lomachenko still has plenty to offer and should have little trouble in recording win number 17 of his professional career, but the big question is can he stop Ortiz? He is even-money to do so but, at 34 and after over 10 months out of the ring, it could take him a few rounds to warm to the task.
With that in mind, I prefer the 5/4 about LOMACHENKO WINNING VIA DECISION for the second outing in a row.
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