Boxing betting tips: Saturday January 27 fights including Jaime Munguia v John Ryder

Boxing betting tips: Saturday January 27

1pt Jaime Munguia to win in rounds 7-12 at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Lewis Crocker to win in rounds 6-10 at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Cheavon Clarke to win by decision at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

John Ryder once again displays his ‘have gloves, will travel’ attitude by going to Phoenix to take on the unbeaten JAIME MUNGUIA in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Ryder (32-6) took on the daunting, but well paid, task of facing Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez in the latter’s back yard of Guadalajara in May and is handed another tough Mexican opponent in this DAZN-televised main event.

Despite taking a beating at the hands of boxing’s biggest star, the Islington super middleweight emerged with lots of credit by making it to the final bell with Canelo and landed a 5/1 winner (Canelo to win by UD) for this column in the process. He is a notable underdog (7/2) again for this latest assignment and, with Munguia chasing a lucrative clash with his compatriot, the 3/10 favourite will be keen to do a better job on Ryder than Canelo did.

Boasting 33 stoppages in a perfect 42-fight record, Munguia is an offensive whirlwind and carries power in both hands. A former champion at light middleweight, title fights eluded him in six wins at middleweight and he is now on the hunt for belts at 168lb, a weight that should suit the six-foot banger from Tijuana.

As good as he is in attack, he can also be easy to hit and that was evident in his first outing at super middleweight against Sergiy Derevyanchenko last time, when Munguia won a close, but unanimous, decision after 12 rounds of back-and-forth action in one of the best fights of 2023. Thankfully for Munguia, he has a granite chin and was able to take what the tough Ukrainian threw in his direction to claim the best victory of his career.

However, that career has been a strange one to date because, despite previously being a world champion and having over 40 outings under his belt, we still don’t really know how good Munguia is. That’s largely down to a padded record and a lack of world class opposition, especially since he left the light middleweight division. He has continued to look good, though, and has stopped most of his victims, while he is only 27 and the best may be still to come.

In typical Mexican fashion, he is all about aggression and throws everything with bad intentions, but he can be a little wild and leave himself open to counters. That is where the more technically sound Ryder can have success, and plenty of it, if he’s at his best, especially being a southpaw. Munguia hasn’t faced too many left-handers and, while he did stop ‘portsider’ Gonzalo Gaston Coria in three rounds on his penultimate outing, that opponent was way out of his depth.

Ryder can certainly ask questions of Munguia but the concern for the underdog is whether he can do so often enough to make a dent in the favourite. Ryder isn’t known for his high output and likes to pick his shots, whereas Munguia sets a high pace and throws plenty of leather from the first bell to the last.

To be headlining such big shows abroad at this stage of his career is a huge testament to the dedication of Ryder, who was in the boxing wilderness after three unsuccessful British title attempts. However, he has looked a different fighter up at super middleweight and fantastic run of eight wins in nine fights led him to the Canelo payday, with that sole defeat being a highly contentious points loss when challenging Callum Smith for his WBC title.

Compact and strong at the weight, Ryder looks to use his short, stocky frame to his advantage against taller opponents by getting inside and unleashing his heavy hooks. He is also prepared to take one or two shots on the way in for a chance to land his own, which should make for an entertaining fight against an opponent who will be more than happy to exchange with him.

Since competing at 168lb, Ryder has shown an excellent chin and that was evident last time against Canelo, as the challenger looked very unlikely to see out the full 12 rounds when dropped heavily in the fifth session. With that in mind, the form book suggests Ryder will be tough to budge and Munguia to prevail by decision may be the most likely outcome, but it is priced accordingly at 11/10.

The value may lie in Munguia to get the stoppage in the second half of the fight, with a feeling that this may be the wrong opponent, at the wrong time, for Ryder. The beating he took from Canelo over 12 rounds is the most punishment he has received in his career and there is every chance that it left its mark on him, especially at 35 years old and with 38 fights behind him.

Ryder may have only been stopped once in six defeats and that was back in 2015 at middleweight, but Munguia may be too fresh, too powerful and too busy for the veteran and the 9/2 on offer is big enough to chance that he can overwhelm the older man to force the referee’s intervention at some point between ROUNDS 7-12.

This will be Munguia's first fight under the guidance of legendary trainer Freddie Roach and that could take him to a new level, one which may be too much for a man possibly coming down the other side of the mountain now.

• CLICK HERE to back Munguia to win in rounds 7-12 with Sky Bet

Crocker to deal with Felix

A few hours earlier in Belfast on DAZN, rising star LEWIS CROCKER also has a Mexican to overcome in the shape of Jose Felix.

Felix sprang a huge upset when ending the winning streak of Gary Cully via a third-round stoppage in Dublin last year and now bids to do the same to another unbeaten local prospect in the shape of Crocker.

The latter enjoyed a coming-out victory when making it 18 straight wins by outpointing local rival Tyrone Mckenna with a big performance in early December. That’s the same McKenna who recorded a unanimous decision victory over Felix in the summer of 2021 and that is one of the reasons why Crocker is a heavy 1/7 favourite here.

However, Felix has performed well in his only two outings since that defeat in this same city two and a half years ago and warrants more respect than a top price of 10/1 suggests. Although he dropped a wide decision to Sandor Martin, who is above this kind of level, Felix gave a good account of himself that night and then shocked Cully, a victory that all started with a huge counter in the third round.

That highlights that Felix carries power and there is no shame in his six defeats as he has mixed in good company, while his experience advantage here should not be underestimated.

However, having fought most of his career at 135lb and 140lb, the big problem for Felix may be the weight as he steps up to the 147lb limit for the first time and he may struggle to keep the bigger man off.

Crocker, who is entertaining and comes to fight, will have learned plenty from the McKenna victory and will be desperate to build on that by doing a better job on Felix than his fellow Belfast native did. The favourite comes forward looking to land heavy shots and forces his opponents to work at a good pace, something which could become all too much for the smaller man as the fight goes on.

This is only a 10-rounder so Crocker by decision isn’t out of the running at 9/4, but the size advantage of the favourite can enable him to get the STOPPAGE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FIGHT at 2/1.

• CLICK HERE to back Crocker to win in rounds 6-10 with Sky Bet

Timing is everything

In a bout between two men at opposite stages of their careers, rising star CHEAVON CLARKE could be catching Tommy McCarthy at the right time.

Both are 33 years old and were top amateurs, but Clarke is only seven fights into a professional career full of potential, while McCarthy (20-5) is coming up to 10 years in the paid ranks and has many more miles on the clock.

It’s no surprise to see Clarke only a top price of 2/9 and it would be a big surprise if McCarthy landed a 5/1 upset, but he still has enough left to give the favourite something to think about.

McCarthy came up short when bidding to win back the European cruiserweight title as he was halted in the seventh round by Michal Cieslak when last seen in November and that was his third stoppage defeat. However, he has mixed in good company and it was only two and a half years ago that he pushed current WBO champion Chris Billam-Smith to a split decision.

He could just know enough to ensure Clarke has to go the distance again here, after Clarke couldn’t get rid of the experienced Vasil Ducar over the same 10-round distance in September. With Belfast resident McCarthy buoyed by a home crowd, Clarke may have to settle for a DECISION VICTORY again and that outcome is much more appealing at 3/1 than the 4/7 about a stoppage for the favourite.

• CLICK HERE to back Clarke to win by decision with Sky Bet

Posted at 1340 GMT on 26/01/24

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