There's boxing in Belfast and New York on Saturday night so check out our Chris Oliver's preview and best bets.
Boxing betting tips: Weekend action
2pts Paddy Donovan to win by decision at 2/1 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt Gervonta Davis to win in rounds 1-6 at 12/5 (bet365, William Hill)
A sold-out Belfast SSE Areana is the venue for the biggest all-Irish fight for many years on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
Local lad Lewis Crocker goes up against Limerick’s Paddy Donovan to see which of these unbeaten welterweights becomes the next face of Irish boxing and gets a crack at world honours next.
Perhaps more importantly than this being a final eliminator for the IBF title, bragging rights are on the line here and, with many bookies unable to split them, the stage looks set for a special night in front of what is sure to be a vociferous capacity crowd.
At a best price of evens, Crocker is the more experienced, with 20 (11 early) victories to his name, but it is in the last 15 months that his career has really taken off. Following a lopsided points victory in his Belfast derby with Tyrone McKenna at this same venue, ‘The Croc’ stopped Jose Felix in five rounds before his barnburner with Conah Walker when last seen in June.
While McKenna and Felix were used to fighting at lower weights, Crocker met his physical match in Walker and they engaged in a real war of attrition, with Crocker getting the nod on all three cards after a pulsating 10 rounds of back-and-forth action.
Donovan, who is available at 20/21, also enjoyed a career-best victory last time out, as he out-boxed and then stopped Lewis Ritson in the ninth session last May. He showed skills and patience that night, and it was another step forwards after good stoppage wins over Danny Ball (TKO4) and Willians Herrea (TKO7).
After 14 outings as a professional, Donovan has progressed quicker than Crocker, but this is the acid test for both men as they each compete in their first 12-rounder.
We know what to expect from Crocker, who likes to march forward behind a high guard and let his power shots go, with his lead left hook being especially dangerous. He hits harder than his 55% knockout ratio would suggest and, having proven against Walker that he can take it as well as give it, the all-action 28-year-old is a real handful.
Crocker had no issues with the southpaw stance of McKenna, but the latter was far too stationary that night and I don’t expect the same from fellow left-hander Donovan. While Crocker brings aggression and physicality to the party, he can be a bit too wild at times and often comes in square, which could play into the hands of the fleet-footed Donovan.
A natural counterpuncher, Donovan controls the range very well with his feet and can use his opponent’s aggression against them by walking them on to heavy left hands. He possesses lightning-fast hands which are very accurate, which is highlighted by a very sharp jab, and that speed advantage could be crucial. At 26, he is still improving and appears to have the style to negate the offensive attributes of Crocker.
Donovan has been caught when briefly switching off on occasions and he will need to maintain his concentration against his toughest opponent to date. He has yet to face a real crisis, and we don’t know how he will handle the heat that Crocker will bring or the pressure of his first headline contest being such a big event. If Donovan has any chinks in his armour, we will find out about them this weekend, but he has been touted as the future star of Irish boxing for some time now and this big stage could bring out the best in him.
I expect Donovan’s speed of hand and foot to be very noticeable from the off, and he can stick and move his way to an early lead. From there, Crocker may have to really chase the fight and that is exactly what Donovan wants.
Crocker is noted for his body punching, though, and that could be his route to slowing down the feet of Donovan. If that is the case and the younger man becomes more static, then the relentless Crocker could really take over and overwhelm his man down the stretch.
A stoppage win for Crocker will be popular in the method of victory market at 11/5 (as short a 13/8), but, in a classic fighter versus boxer affair, I prefer the superior skills of Donovan to prevail via decision at 2/1.
It seems Crocker needs to take the fight to his man and try to make this a war, but that can play right into the hands of Donovan, who is quick and accurate enough to pick him apart on the back foot. There will be times when Donovan has to stand his ground and trade a little, but he carries good power himself and can more than hold his own in that area.
There may be some tense and worrying moments at the business end of this intriguing fight, but I believe Donovan can open a big lead on the scorecards and hang on at the finish to claim famous victory.
CLICK HERE to back Donovan to win by decision with Sky Bet
Davis to deliver in New York
While the layers can barely split them in the Belfast main event, it’s a very different story in New York where Gervonta Davis is a red-hot 1/16 favourite to successfully defence his WBA lightweight title against Lamont Roach, who is a 12/1 chance.
With 28 knockouts on his perfect 30-0 record, Davis is a must-see performer when he gets in the ring, but he just doesn’t fight often enough, and his choice of opponents is also doing his legacy no good whatsoever.
Roach, with a ledger of 25-1-1, is another lacklustre dance partner for someone as good as Davis, who only fought once in both 2023 and 2024 but shone when he did in halting Ryan Garcia (KO7) and Frank Martin (KO8) respectively.
Roach has won and defended the WBA super featherweight on his last two outings and he is a tidy boxer with good fundamentals, but he isn’t on Davis’ level and his task is made even harder by stepping up to lightweight.
Unsurprisingly, another Davis stoppage is only 1/4 and the round group betting markets may be where you’ll find something at more of a working man’s price. There has been a common theme to Davis’ wins in recent years, as ‘Tank’ does little early doors and falls behind on the scorecards, before going through gears when his opponent begins to tire and stopping them in devastating fashion.
Davis has won in the second half of the contest in three of his last five stoppage victories, and a repeat scenario is an even-money shot here. However, two of those inside-the-distance wins came in the first half and that is where the value may lie at 12/5.
With only 10 early wins to his name and moving up in weight, Roach may not have enough in his arsenal to get the respect of Davis and, therefore, keep him off. If the favourite goes on the offence earlier than usual, then he can get the job done in rounds 1-6.
