Boxing betting tips: Joe Joyce vs Dereck Chisora and TNT Sports undercard

Boxing betting tips: Joyce vs Chisora

2pts Joe Joyce and Dereck Chisora to go the distance 3/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Ionut Baluta to win by decision 4/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In a fight nobody was asking for in 2024, Joe Joyce versus Derek Chisora headlines a TNT-televised card at London’s O2 Arena on Saturday night.

A bout between the pair was first mooted around five years ago and it made much more appeal to the fans then, but now it has the feel of a car accident you don’t want to see but you can’t take your eyes off.

Both men are well past their best and need a win to stay relevant. So, in that sense, the fight works for both parties now, as it’s winnable for each man and a victory would get them back in the mix for another big payday.

Taking part in his 48th contest as a professional, Chisora (34-13) just won’t go away, even though many believe he should have hung up his gloves a long time ago. His incredible heart inside the ring and his eccentric antics outside of it have made him a cult figure in British boxing. ‘Del Boy’ was in the headlines again recently for head-butting a Deliveroo rider in Hampstead and for all those who have grown tired of such behaviour, there are just as many fans who lap it up.

The 40-year-old has lost four of his last six outings but arrives on the back of a victory, albeit is against man even older than himself in Gerald Washington (20-5-1) via unanimous decision, and that earned him the opportunity to headline another major show. With so many of his big nights coming at this venue, he insists this is his last at the 02 Arena and he is desperate to go out on a high.

Whereas Chisora’s career has been a rollercoaster, Joyce’s was more of a slingshot and a constant ascent. That was until he met Zhilei Zhang.

After winning a silver medal, which should arguably have been gold, at the 2016 Olympics, Joyce made a rapid rise up the heavyweight rankings with 16 straight wins, 15 of them coming early. The form of his victories over newly-crowned IBF champion Daniel Dubois (KO10) and Joseph Parker (KO11) has worked out very well, and he looked on the verge of a title shot when he bumped into Zhang in April last year.

Joyce’s selling point had been his granite-like chin and relentless engine, but the ‘Juggernaut’ was stopped in his tracks by the Chinese southpaw, who couldn’t miss with his powerful left hand until the one-sided beating was stopped in the sixth round due to Joyce’s badly damaged eye.

Things got even worse for Joyce in the rematch in September, when the Putney man was knocked out in the third round and his famous punch resistance looked to be a thing of the past.

That was the first left-hander he had faced as a professional and some thought it could just be a case of a giant southpaw being Joyce’s kryptonite, but he then looked awful as he laboured to victory when stopping Kash Ali in the final seconds of their 10-rounder in March. Ali should have been an easy comeback for Joyce, but that performance suggested the 38-year-old is coming down the other side of the mountain much quicker than we first thought.

Still, Joyce is the 2/9 favourite due to him having the better wins on his record and Chisora can be found as big as 4/1. The most notable recent form of Joyce’s is the aforementioned victory over Parker, who subsequently twice outpointed Chisora, but boxing is rarely that simple and this contest is likely to come down to who has faded the least.

One of the reasons Chisora is so popular is that you know what you’re going to get from him. He always comes to fight and will plough forward all night long in the hope of landing something meaningful, regardless of what is coming back in his direction. His willingness to ‘take one to give one’ is matched by Joyce, who has also shown little interest in defence throughout his career and has been more than happy to walk through the fire to get in range.

With both men being easy to hit and only capable of moving forward, this should be all action as they meet each other head-on and have a tear-up. However, it may not be an explosive kind of battle and, instead, a war of attrition beckons, as both have slowed down considerably, and it could be uncomfortable viewing at times.

Joyce’s performance against Ali was concerning and so, too, was the fact he was repeatedly caught with a big overhand right, which is Chisora’s money shot. Thankfully for the favourite, like Ali, Chisora isn’t the biggest puncher at the weight and, even if his whiskers aren’t what they once were, Joyce will fancy his chances of taking those shots.

Chisora hasn’t fought for nearly a year and, with Joyce seemingly having less miles on the clock, the latter looks the most likely winner, although it may not be as straightforward as the betting predicts.

All bar one of Joyce’s wins have come inside the distance and odds of 8/15 suggest he will get the stoppage again here. If that is to be the case, logic dictates that it will most probably be in the second half of the fight (6/4), as he tends to wear people down with his famous work-rate, rather than blast them out of there with his power. However, the value appears to lie with the fight to go the distance at 3/1.

Ali was seven seconds away from going the full 10 rounds with Joyce in March and it’s hard to see him halting Chisora on that sort of form. Adding to that, the latter has only been stopped four times in his career and they were all in top-class company.

While I do have concerns about him still fighting, Chisora remains durable enough that I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this one makes it to the final bell.

Joyce winning a decision at 5/1 is very appealing but his last performance is a worry, and the safer option looks to be the fight to go the distance, as it takes away the worry of Chisora causing an upset on the scorecards.

CLICK HERE to back the fight to go the distance with Sky Bet

Baluta can prove a real menace

With plenty of intrigue on a good undercard, the fight of the night looks sure to be the rematch between Dennis McCann and Ionut Baluta.

They served up a cracker in August last year, when the unbeaten McCann was given hell by the underdog before suffering a nasty cut due to an accidental clash of heads. The bout went to the scorecards in the ninth round as a result and while many thought Baluta had done enough, two judges had it level (the other scored it for McCann) and a majority draw was announced.

On the back of that performance, McCann moved north for a change of trainer and his first outing under the guidance of Joe McNally produced a career-best performance in March, as he conclusively outpointed the unbeaten Brad Strand to add the British super bantamweight title to his Commonwealth belt.

On the back of that improved showing, McCann is the 4/11 favourite for this return, but Baluta is used to upsetting the odds and won’t be bothered in the slightest about being an 11/4 chance.

A regular fixture on these shores now, Baluta pushed the then-unbeaten Michael Conlan to a very a close decision in 2021 and gave Liam Davies plenty to think about when losing on the cards the following year, while the Romanian surprised the oddsmakers when beating both Brad Foster (2022) and Andrew Cain (2023) on points.

It could be a negative for Baluta that he hasn’t fought since these two last clashed and he may not get any favours from the judges again if, as expected, they are needed.

However, given how tough a night he had first time around, it’s hard to side with McCann by decision at 4/6, and there is much more juice in the 4/1 about Baluta winning by the same method.

Posted at 1445 BST on 26/06/24

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