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Boxing betting tips: Jesse Rodriguez v Sunny Edwards and more Saturday fights
Chris Oliver previews Saturday's feature action, including a fascinating bout in Texas where one of Britain's best fighters looks value.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday December 16
1pt Sunny Edwards to win at 2/1 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
1pt Josh Kelly to win in rounds 7-12 at 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
SUNNY EDWARDS finally gets the big fight he has been craving when he takes on Jesse 'Bam' Rodriguez in Glendale, Arizona this weekend.
Edwards (20-0) has been calling for unification bouts since dethroning Moruti Mthalane and now has the chance to add the WBO flyweight title to his IBF strap. Arguably the UK's best boxer right now, the unbeaten 27-year-old has long told us we will only see the very best of him when faced with a real test and he certainly gets that in Rodriguez.
Also boasting a perfect record, Rodriguez (18-0) became the sport's youngest champion when stepping up two weights to take on WBC super flyweight champion Carlos Cuadras at short notice in February last year and easily outpointing the heavily favoured veteran. He proved that was no fluke when stopping another lower-weight legend in Srisaket Sor Rungvisai four months later and rounded off a brilliant 2022 with a wide decision victory over Israel Gonzalez.
The Texas native became a two-weight world champion when dropping to 112lb to register a unanimous decision over Christian Gonzalez in April and, still only 23, he now goes after his new division's number one in the shape of Edwards.
The lower weights don't often have the spotlight on them and it's good to see that change this weekend. Both men would be much bigger stars if they weighed a few more stone and it shouldn't be just the hardcore boxing fans getting excited about this one, as it is one of the best matchups of 2023 and deserves plenty of wider attention.
As far as the outcome goes, this is a fight that has divided fans and pundits since it was announced, but that 50-50 feel isn't quite reflected in the betting and 8/15 is the best you will find about Rodriguez. That is down to having home advantage and the bigger names on his CV, but Edwards is more than capable of making his odds of 2/1 look far too big. Like many, I am struggling to split these two and a good case can be made for both men in a fascinating contest.
Rodriguez deserves to be favourite following those excellent wins up at 115lb last year and the style in which he beat Cuadras and Rungvisai was extremely impressive. An aggressive southpaw with a relentless approach, he sets his attacks up with a wonderful jab and has speed in abundance. With serious power in both hands, this pocket dynamo has a varied arsenal of weapons in his armoury and puts his shots together with real venom.
On the other hand, Edwards is a real box of tricks who loves nothing more than making his opponent miss and pay. This master counterpuncher does his best work on the back foot and switches stances seamlessly, making him very hard to read and even harder to hit cleanly thanks to razor-sharp reflexes and a high ring IQ. The Croydon man has defended his title five times now, including good wins over Jayson Mama and Felix Alvarado, and has faced a variety of styles.
Both men display excellent footwork but in very different ways. While Rodriguez uses his nimble feet to create different angles of attack and pivot around his opponents, Edwards utilises constant movement to bamboozle his foes and prove a very elusive target.
This will all come down to who can impose their style on the fight, with Rodriguez coming out on the front foot and looking to make a dent in the underdog early doors to slow him down. The favourite will look to do so with plenty of body shots and he is very effective when he goes downstairs.
However, Edwards relishes fighters who come at him and will be looking to play the matador to the bull-like tactics of the favourite. Edwards had a good preparation for this style when disarming and outpointing the big-punching Felix Alvarado in his penultimate outing, making the Nicaraguan chase shadows for much of the night. Admittedly, Rodriguez is better than Alvarado but Edwards dealt with the constant pressure very well and paced the fight to perfection.
It's hard to make a confident prediction in such a close fight and I could see this one going either way, so the value call is Edwards at 2/1. A victory for the Brit would be a huge achievement but it is something I believe he is capable of on his day.
Edwards will take plenty of encouragement from Rodriguez's latest performance when the American certainly didn't look his best. We are used to seeing champions going up in weight and not down, so it could have been the drop to flyweight that didn't suit Rodriguez. He also struggled with the constant lateral movement of Gonzalez and he can expect plenty of that from the visitor in this unification fight.
Edwards only has four stoppages on his CV and is likely to need the judges if he's to pick up another belt, but it's hardly worth taking the 23/10 about a decision rather than the 2/1 for him to just win. It will need a career-best performance, but I'm backing Sunny to shine in the US.
Pretty straightforward for Kelly
Staying on the theme of flashy skills, JOSH KELLY fights in his native Sunderland for the first time as a professional when he takes on Placido Ramirez on Saturday night.
Kelly has won all four outings since losing his unbeaten record to David Avanesyan, when unravelling in the sixth round of their European welterweight clash in February 2021. 'Pretty Boy' has looked much more comfortable since moving up to super welterweight and he was brilliant in his British title victory over Troy Williamson a year ago.
He had to go the distance with Gabriel Alberto Corzo in July thanks to the latter's negative tactics, but Ramirez should arrive with more ambition and that can see Kelly in a much better light.
Ramirez (24-3) began his career at 135lb and only made his debut at this 154lb limit four weeks ago, when his bout with Denis Nurja was ruled a no contest after four rounds when disgruntled locals in Albania stormed the ring to attack Ramirez.
A 1/14 chance, Kelly should be the stronger man here and, with two of Ramirez's three defeats coming by stoppage at 140lb, it looks a good opportunity for the favourite to gain an inside-the-distance victory. He's 11/10 to do so, but that can be bumped up to 13/5 for him to win in the second half of the fight and that could be the way to go.
Posted at 1130 GMT on 15/12/23
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