Boxing expert Chris Oliver previews an old fight for a new era as Filip Hrgovic and Joe Joyce go toe-to-toe live on DAZN.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday April 5
1pt Filip Hrgovic to win by decision at 11/4 (bet365, BetVictor)
2pts David Adeleye to win in rounds 1-6 at 7/5 (bet365)
Frank Warren’s Queensberry Promotions begin their new broadcast deal with DAZN on Saturday with a headline bout in Manchester that leaves you looking back, rather than forwards.
If Joe Joyce and FILIP HRGOVIC had clashed three years ago, then it would have been one of the hottest fights in the glamour division. Now, with both men having endured a torrid last couple of years, they are fighting to stay relevant in a thriving heavyweight scene.
At the end of 2022, Joyce was 15-0 (14 KOs) and flying high on the back of a career-best performance, as he beat up and stopped Joe Parker over 11 brutal rounds. Having already outboxed and stopped a young Daniel Dubois a couple of years earlier, the Putney man was one of the most feared big men in the game, with his relentless engine and granite chin earning him the perfect moniker of ‘The Juggernaut’.
However, his career began to unravel in 2023 with back-to-back stoppage defeats to Zhilei Zhang, who did enough damage to Joyce’s right eye to force the doctor’s intervention first time around and then put an exclamation mark on their rivalry with dominant third-round knockout in the rematch.
Concerns were raised about Joyce following a lacklustre comeback victory over the very moderate Kash Ali (KO10) last April before the alarm bells became deafening when he was dropped on his way to a unanimous decision defeat to an ageing Derek Chisora last summer.
Hrgovic also arrives with questions to answer after losing his unbeaten record to Dubois in June last year. The pair of heavy hitters embarked upon a firefight from the opening bell, and it was Hrgovic who wilted first, with cuts over both of his eyes causing the doctor to wave it off in the eighth round.
Prior to that, Hrgovic was widely expected to be a future world champion, having stopped 14 of his 17 victims. At his best, the 32-year-old Croat is a tidy boxer with good power and accuracy, but the warning signs were there before he came unstuck against Dubois. Hrgovic was very fortunate to get the nod from the judges against the aforementioned Zhang in August 2022, while he made hard work of Demsey McKean before stopping him in the final session of their 12-rounder a year later.
Joyce and Hrgovic avoided each other when winning silver and bronze respectively at the 2016 Olympic Games, but they did clash in the amateurs before that, and it was the Brit who came out on top. However, 12 years on and with a lot of water under the bridge, that win counts for very little when it comes to analysing their return this weekend.
The bookies certainly think Hrgovic can gain revenge, with 2/7 the best you can get about the visitor, while Joyce is as big as 4/1. There has been consistent support for Hrgovic this week and it’s not hard to see why.
Joyce has always been slow, but his iron jaw and non-stop aggression made him a nightmare to fight, as he ploughed forward until his opponents couldn’t take the pressure any longer. It is a very different story now, though, with his once-renowned punch resistance seemingly gone and his output also not what it was.
For Hrgovic, the questions marks are over his gas tank as, not for the first time, he looked spent by the midway point against Dubois and that could be a factor if he doesn’t get rid of Joyce in the first half of the contest.
On the plus side, Hrgovic still has good power in his right hand, which he couldn’t miss with early doors against Dubois, and his jab remains a sharp weapon. Moreover, he has by far the better footwork here and is much the fresher, being seven years the junior of Joyce, who has looked every bit his 39 years of late.
The concerns over Joyce’s durability these days mean Hrgovic is only 5/6 to get the stoppage and, while it could be target practice for the favourite in the opening rounds, he can’t maintain a decent pace for too long. If Joyce can survive the early onslaught, then Hrgovic to win by decision becomes a big player at 11/4, which looks good value to me with this only being a 10-rounder.
With their futures on the line and both men knowing they can’t afford to lose, there is also a strong possibility that this could be a cagey and tentative affair, especially as they are fully aware of their frailties at this stage of their careers.
A stoppage victory for Hrgovic would certainly be no surprise, but there appears to be far more juice in the price about him having to get the job done via the scorecards.
Adeleye to fire early
Sticking with the big men, DAVID ADELEYE is fancied to continue his rebuild by claiming the vacant British heavyweight title against Jeamie Tshikeva.
Unbeaten in 11 fights at the time, Adeleye came up short when challenging for this belt against Fabio Wardley 18 months ago, when he was stopped in seven rounds. However, there was no shame in losing to Wardley, who has advertised the form well since, and Adeleye did have success early on that night.
Tshikeva (8-1) is not on Wardley’s level, as suggested by his odds of 11/2, and this represents a big step up in class from his victory over Micheal Webster (RTD9) in February.
That was HEATED 😤🔥@DavidAdeleye and @JeamieTkvBoxing got PERSONAL 🤯#HeavyImpact | Saturday | Co-Op Live, Manchester | @DAZNBoxing | Tickets on sale via Ticketmaster NOW 🎟️ pic.twitter.com/WRAG626u0v
— Queensberry Promotions (@Queensberry) April 3, 2025
Since his sole defeat, Adeleye regrouped and teamed up with new coach Adam Booth, with their partnership getting off to a flying start as ‘Big D’ returned with an impressive first-round stoppage of the previously unbeaten Solomon Dacres in December.
That took his record to 13-1 and 12 of those wins came inside the distance, which explains odds of 2/5 about him recording a 13th stoppage of his career here. His last six victories have come before the halfway mark and, with Tshikeva being stopped once before already, I think Adeleye can get this done before the midway point again at 7/5.
The favourite is a big, explosive puncher who is especially dangerous early on, and his lead left hook can do serious damage. The 28-year-old Londoner will be looking to detonate his bombs from the off and he could be set for another early night if he lands one of those on Tshikeva’s chin.
Posted at 1215 GMT on 04/04/25
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