Free boxing betting tips: Josh Warrington v Mauricio Lara, Saturday February 13

Boxing betting tips

2pts double Josh Warrington/Zelfa Barrett to win by stoppage at 6/4

It feels like a long time ago that Anthony Joshua added another knockout to his CV in mid-December but boxing finally makes a welcome return to these shores this weekend.

As many people took part in 'Dry January', boxing was forced into a similar drought by the UK government in the first month of the year and the comeback starts with JOSH WARRINGTON against Mauricio Lara at the Wembley Arena.

After 1,000 fans saw Joshua overcome Kubrat Pulev at the same venue, we are back behind closed doors again and if anyone is going to miss having a crowd in, it is Warrington. The raucous atmosphere created by his Leeds faithful is now famous and he will have to quickly get used to the lack of that vociferous backing on Saturday night, while he also has a long absence to overcome.

Back fighting under the Matchroom promotional banner for the first time since 2016, this will be his first outing since October 2019 and it means he has only had those two rounds it took to blow away Sofiane Tackoucht in the last 20 months. Add to that the disappointment of recently giving up his IBF featherweight title and it would be no surprise if the unbeaten the 30-year-old isn't at his best here.

However, the good news for Warrington is that he looks to have been handed a nice starter by Eddie Hearn in the shape of Lara, who is expected to be devoured with minimal fuss before the promised main course of a big-name title fight in the summer.

The Mexican might be on a winning streak of 10 but his 21-2 record has been assembled at a low level in his native country and this represents a huge step up in class for the 22-year-old. Beaten on his debut, he was also stopped in the first round by a novice in 2018 and while he has improved since, his winning run against mediocre opposition doesn’t justify his place topping the bill against a fighter of Warrington's calibre.

It was a long road to the top for Warrington, who came up the hard way on small-hall shows, but he really announced himself on the big stage when ripping the belt from Lee Selby in a big domestic upset on a noisy night at Elland Road in the summer of 2018.

He then proved that was no fluke when outpointing Carl Frampton in a fight of the year contender seven months later, and those impressive points victories rightfully sparked talk of unification clashes across the pond. Despite nicking a split decision over local rival Kid Galahad in a messy affair then blowing away the usually durable Takoucht, the big fights haven't materialised and that has prompted him to jump the promotional ship again.

Unsurprisingly, that the Leeds man is long odds-on at 1/18 (as short as 1/50) to take his record to 31-0 and the main question here, from a punting perspective, is whether he can stop (4/9) the 14/1 outsider or have to settle for a points win (5/2).

The latter has been the route of victory for over 75% of Warrington's career, with just seven early wins from 30 fights, but that paints an unfair picture of him not carrying much power. Granted, he is no one-punch knockout artist, but he has developed over the years into a strong fighter at featherweight and Frampton, who had beaten the likes of Scott Quigg, Leo Santa Cruz and Nonito Donaire, said Warrington was the hardest puncher he has been in with.

The visitor does have some things in his favour, as he's been active during lockdown (fighting in August and December last year) and is the bigger man having campaigned at higher weights than 126lb, but doesn't have skills to suggest he can trouble the favourite here.

He isn’t the quickest or the most elusive, as he often leaves his chin out to dry when throwing and his come-forward nature means the aggressive Warrington won't have to go looking for his man. Lara doesn't appear to have the power to keep off Warrington either and that can only spell trouble for him.

Known for his high work rate and fast starts, Warrington will be looking to utilise his quick hands and feet from the get-go, and his whirlwind flurries can be overwhelming once he puts his punches together, as Takoucht will testify.

He could be forgiven for struggling to get up for this one as he drops in class and is expected to win with ease, but he appears to be champing at the bit after a layoff and seems desperate to take his frustrations out on someone. Unfortunately for Lara, he is that someone and the younger man may struggle to make it past the halfway mark of this 10-rounder against an opponent a few levels above him.

Former Warrington foe Kiko Martinez is well known to UK fans and the Spaniard returns to face yet another British fighter as he takes on ZELFA BARRETT in the chief support.

The veteran dropped a majority decision to Warrington in 2017, to go with defeats to Rendall Monroe (twice), Frampton (twice) and an early stoppage at the hands of Quigg, and looks the ideal test for the well-regarded Barrett, who can prove he is serious about world honours if he passes this test in style.

Barrett (1/10) clearly learnt plenty from his gutsy points defeat to the tough-as-teak Ronnie Clark and has looked better than ever in five subsequent victories, most notably the last twice. Firstly, stopping Jordan McCorry in nine rounds for the Commonwealth title, and then halting the previously unbeaten Eric Donovan with a highlight reel finish in the eighth stanza in August. There was very little in the latter contest until Barrett started to connect in the middle rounds and it became very one-sided from halfway, a scenario that could be repeated here.

Martinez (15/2) has been a tremendous servant and has mixed with the best in and around nine stone over the years, including challenging Gary Russell Jr. for his WBC featherweight strap as recently as May 2019. However, he was battered for five rounds before being stopped on a cut that night and, a pro since 2004 and now 34, you have to wonder what he has left after 52 bouts.

At his best, Martinez has the style and work rate to give the skilful Barrett all sorts of problems, as he fights small and trudges forward relentlessly behind a high guard before working well on the inside. However, a slower, inactive and older version of Martinez could be perfect for the 'Brown Flash' to sparkle.

True to his moniker, he has lightning-quick hands, highlighted by a very effective jab which he throws from the hip, and also counters very well, meaning the oncoming visitor could be eating plenty of shots as he looks to get inside to land his own. The lead left hand from the orthodox stance is a powerful one, as evidenced by his last two stoppages, and he can wear down the ageing visitor, who concedes a size advantage as he steps up to super featherweight, for a third straight stoppage win (5/6).

Posted at 1045 GMT on 12/02/21

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