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Boxing betting tips: Amir Khan versus Kell Brook preview and best bets
Amir Khan and Kell Brook will finally face off at the AO Arena in Manchester on Saturday night – read Chris Oliver's in-depth preview here.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday February 19
3pts Amir Khan v Kell Brook under 10 rounds at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt both fighters to be knocked down at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
The say 'the best things come to those who wait', but that rarely applies in boxing.
It's more of a case of 'better late than never' where Amir Khan and Kell Brook are concerned, as the pair finally get it on this weekend after over a decade of calling each other out.
Despite both men being well past their best, around 20.000 tickets for Saturday's show at the AO Arena in Manchester sold out in minutes and all indications suggest that it is going to do good numbers on Sky Box Office. After all the proclamation of boxing fans that they were no longer interested in seeing these two finally settle their differences, most are now fully on board as the blockbuster rapidly approaches and I am genuinely intrigued to see how this one plays out.
There are many points in time when this could and should have happened, but the ideal scenario would have been in a UK stadium in the summer of 2015. Khan had stepped up to welterweight the previous year and put on boxing masterclasses against US contender Luis Collazo and former champion Devon Alexander, while 2014 saw Brook sensationally win the IBF title at 147lb by outpointing Shawn Porter in America and he was riding high. That would have been some occasion and meant a great deal on the world stage, unlike the 2022 version.
Brook has always been very vocal about wanting this fight and the blame has always been put on Khan for swerving it. That may be true, but the Bolton man has undoubtedly had the better career and, as a result, has never been short of lucrative options.
An Olympic silver medallist at just 17, Khan is a two-time world light-welterweight champion who toppled big names such as Marco Antonio Barrera, Paulie Malignaggi, Marcos Maidana and Zab Judah in a brilliant run of form between 2009 and 2011. Those wins, along with his exciting style, saw him become a headline act in America and very few UK fighters have topped the bill Stateside with the regularity that Khan has.
Different paths lead to big clash
While Khan was a star before his professional debut, there was no such fanfare when Brook turned over in 2004 and he had to work his way up the ladder the old-fashioned way. He even went the hard route when his title shot finally came, but that win over Porter on away soil was an excellent one and the Sheffield native looked destined for really big things.
However, his reign was an underwhelming one and after three one-sided stoppage wins against lacklustre opposition, he made the brave (or stupid) move to step up to middleweight and take on knockout machine Gennadiy Golovkin in 2016. The fight played out as expected, with 'GGG' scoring a stoppage in the fifth round, and Brook has been damaged goods since that beating, which left him with a broken eye socket.
The return to welterweight was painful one, as Errol Spence Jr broke the other eye-socket when forcing Brook to quit in the 11th round of their gruelling bout at Brammall Lane, and 'Special K' now has a reconstructed skull after those back-to-back defeats.
Similarly, Khan has never looked the same since an equally ambitious move up in weight to challenge the much bigger Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez. Having boxed well behind his jab and utilised his superior speed, the Bolton fighter was then rendered unconscious in a split second when Canelo landed a huge right hand towards the end of the sixth round in a highlight reel KO.
They both returned in 2018 and have produced some uninspiring performances in beating opponents well short of world class since, before each man looked a long way removed from their peak in stoppage defeats to the brilliant Terence Crawford. Now they come back from lengthy layoffs for one last big pay cheque and even bigger bragging rights.
Brook favoured over Khan in big-fight betting
It has always been billed as the speed of Khan against the power of Brook, and the punters seemed to be favouring the latter as the Yorkshireman has been the favourite since the fight was announced. However, he can be backed at 8/11 now as the late money comes for Khan, who is a best price of 6/4 at the time of writing.
The argument about who was the better fighter has raged between UK fight fans for years, but that is all irrelevant now as we are not seeing the same versions of the two men. This is now all about who has deteriorated the least, and that is a very tough call to make with no real recent evidence to go on.
Khan's bout against Crawford came first in April 2019 and after recovering from a first-round knockdown, he was hit with a low blow in the sixth session and chose not to continue. Khan was losing each round and as Crawford was turning the screw, the Brit appeared to opt for a safer way out of a fight he couldn't win.
Brook took on Crawford behind closed doors in November 2020 and was very competitive for the first three rounds, but the manner in which he capitulated was very concerning. Badly hurt by a jab early in the fourth round and kept up by the ropes, Brook was saved by the referee following a short flurry of punches and there were no complaints from the loser.
While Khan has always had suspect whiskers, Brook was known for a solid chin but that looks a thing of the past on the evidence of the Crawford fight. Age, not 'living the life' outside of the ring and years of gruelling weight-making may have taken its toll on Brook, who can only have faded further over the 15 months since that Las Vegas disappointment.
The same applies to Khan, who has been out of the ring for over two and half years, having stopped the much smaller Billy Dib in a meaningless four rounds in Saudi Arabia in July 2019. 'King Khan' hasn't always been the most dedicated when not in training camp either, so we aren't talking about two of the freshest 35-year-olds around here.
Khan calls on new trainer to mastermind victory
Interestingly, Khan has teamed up with Crawford's trainer, Brian 'BoMac' McIntyre, for this one. The American coach has masterminded wins over both men and knows their weaknesses better than most, so that could be a big coup for the underdog.
The catchweight of 149lb, just 2lb above the welterweight limit, is expected to be more of a struggle for Brook to boil down to and there may not be much left in the tank if he gets down to that agreed target. However, with a £100,000 penalty in place for each 1lb a fighter comes over that weight, Brook has hinted he may be happy to forfeit 'a couple of hundred grand' in order to be in better shape come fight night. All eyes will be on the scales on Friday afternoon.
Both men have good jabs, and it could be a battle of the lead left hands early doors. Expect Khan to be moving more and using his speed advantage to dart in and out of range, looking to get his rapid combinations off. However, Brook, who is considered the puncher here, insists timing beats speed and that he will walk Khan on to a big one at some point. He could well be right, as Khan's feet are clearly slowing down and they now look a step behind his hands, which remain lightning quick.
On the other hand, Brook has never been known for his engine and if Khan can stay out of the way in the early exchanges, his tiring opponent could be ripe to be picked off with great regularity as we get into the middle rounds.
Cases can be made for both veterans but with so little known about what they have left in the tank at this stage, predicting a winner is a dangerous game involving a lot of guesswork. However, one thing that does seem likely is that this grudge match delivers on the action front and all the clues point towards it not going the distance. It is 8/13 that we don't hear the final bell, but I don't see it even reaching the latter stages of the contest and the better value could be UNDER 10 ROUNDS at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
The fact it is happening several years too late could actually make for a better fight, as they are now slower and therefore easier to hit. With the cauldron-like atmosphere of a sell-out crowd and all the bad blood between the pair on top of that, this could turn into a shootout earlier than many expected. With their lack of punch resistance these days and the stamina concerns at 35 already highlighted, an early night could well be on the cards. Add to that all the miles on the clock and injuries aplenty over the years, there is also the possibility of someone getting injured and their body not being up to the job.
With that in mind, the 7/2 on offer with Sky Bet for BOTH FIGHTERS TO BE KNOCKED DOWN also looks worth chancing.
After a very lively build-up, there seems sure to be plenty of talking points after the fight and the debate is likely to rumble on long after the final bell. It seems the appetite for this grudge match is still there, despite the food going cold a long time ago.
Posted at 1130 GMT on 18/02/22
How to watch Khan v Brook
This clash will be broadcast on Sky Sports Box Office from 6:00pm, with the main event expected to begin around 10pm.
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