Wimbledon tennis betting tips: Daily best bets Tuesday July 9
Andy Schooler previews Tuesday’s quarter-final action at Wimbledon 2024.
Daily tennis betting tips: Wimbledon
1.5pts Tommy Paul (+5.5) to beat Carlos Alcaraz on the game handicap at 4/5 (BoyleSports)
Jannik Sinner v Daniil Medvedev
Sinner is looking every inch the champion-in-waiting and I’m surprised to see him still available at 7/4 for the title.
I guess the issue he may have to get past both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic in order to lift the famous trophy but the way he’s playing, the Italian would surely go off favourite for both of those matches.
It was perhaps understandable he needed four sets in his first-round match but since then it’s been very solid tennis from the world number one.
Matteo Berrettini was an awkward second-round opponent but he was dismissed in four sets and since then Miomir Kecmanovic and Ben Shelton have both been brushed aside.
Now Sinner faces an opponent he’s beaten five times in a row across the last 18 months, including in January’s Australian Open final. Since then, he smashed the Russian for the loss of only three games in Miami.
This will be their first grasscourt meeting but I hardly think that helps Medvedev.
He will have been happy with the way his tournament has gone so far, yet you have to question if he’s going to be able to turn the tide against Sinner on this surface.
Sinner was completely unfazed by Shelton’s big serve the other day and while Medvedev has more to his game, I don’t see him being able to stem the Italian’s assault.
I’m tempted here by the 3-0 scoreline, although I’m always rather wary of getting involved with that bet on grass where one bad service game can see a set slip by.
If you are looking for a bet on this one, Sinner in straight sets at 8/5 is the suggestion, although it’s not one I’m going to officially put up.
Carlos Alcaraz v Tommy Paul
I think this match could be closer than the odds suggest – Paul is a 3/1 outsider.
The pair’s previous meetings have tended to be very hard fought and the head-to-head stands at 2-2 heading into this one.
Paul has twice beaten Alcaraz on a hardcourt – both times at the Canadian Masters – and was just a tie-break away from another victory when they last met in Cincinnati last summer.
The route to success was highlighted by the American after his win in Toronto last August after which he said: “You can’t start any points on your heels against him or he’ll take advantage of that. So, you really have to go after your shots early in the rally and I was feeling really good on the first-strike tennis.”
Aggression from Paul can be expected again here and he looks in the form to execute the gameplan well.
After winning at Queen’s Club, Paul took a couple of rounds to get into his stride in SW19 but he’s improved with time and has beaten Alexander Bublik and Roberto Bautista Agut without dropping a set in the past few days.
Alcaraz has endured more of a struggle, needing five sets to take down Frances Tiafoe and four to beat Ugo Humbert.
Both men had aggressive tactics and managed to rattle the Spaniard for periods, albeit not for long enough.
I’m keen to get with Paul in some way here and my initial thought was Alcaraz to win and both players to win a set at around 6/5.
Yet I’ve more than a sneaky suspicion that Paul could land the upset here, although I’m sill not prepared to go completely against a player I fancied for the title before a ball was hit.
The compromise position is to side with Paul on the handicap where he’s getting a 5.5-game start.
Clearly, he should land this if he manages to win the match but it also gives us plenty of hope if, as I’d expect, he manages to claim a set.
None of the 11 sets these two have played has been won easier than 6-3 with four of them being decided by a tie-break; expect another closely-fought contest.
Jasmine Paolini v Emma Navarro
I’ve not got a bet in this one but I’m going to use it to point out our outright position.
Followers of my outright preview will have Navarro at 20/1 to win her quarter – a bet which will land if she justifies favouritism in this match.
Navarro was an impressive victor over Coco Gauff in the last round, although the second seed’s forehand once again let her down a lot.
I doubt the in-form Paolini, a player I considered backing at 100/1 for the title, will give so much away, although she was also fortunate on Sunday – Madison Keys was a double-break up in the final set of their last-16 contest when she got injured.
The Italian has been in the form of her life this season and I certainly wouldn’t rule her out of this one and those who are on Navarro at 20/1 would probably do well to trade out and at least ensure they don’t lose anything from this point.
For the record, Paolini can be backed at a best price of 7/4.
Posted at 1845 BST on 08/07/24
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