Wimbledon ladies' singles outright: Aryna Sabalenka to soar
Andy Schooler previews a tough-looking Wimbledon ladies’ singles draw and offers up bets at 6/1, 33/1 and 66/1.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon women's singles
2pts win Aryna Sabalenka at 6/1 (BetVictor, 10Bet)
0.5pt e.w. Daria Kasatkina at 66/1 (Betfred, betway, 10Bet)
0.5pt Katerina Siniakova to win the second quarter at 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The ladies’ singles at Wimbledon 2023 is a web of intrigue.
We’ve got a favourite whose record on grass leaves a lot to be desired, while the draw looks very lop-sided with the top half considerably weaker than the bottom.
It frankly looks a tough puzzle for punters to solve but let’s see if we can do just that but going through things quarter-by-quarter…
First quarter
Title favourite Iga Swiatek heads up this section.
She’s the world number one and undoubtedly the best player on clay, as she proved at the recent French Open.
You can also make a strong case for her being the top dog on hardcourts, after all she is the reigning US Open champion, but anyone arguing that she’s the best on grass is struggling for evidence to back that up.
The Pole is yet to go beyond the last 16 in SW19 and neither has she reached a grasscourt final at any other venue.
She appeared to have the chance to break that duck this week in Bad Homburg but withdrew ahead of the semi-finals citing illness, possibly food poisoning.
While that may well have been precautionary or even pre-planned – we often see players pulling out in the week before a Slam, keen to head to the venue and not fatiguing themselves – it’s another concern for anyone considering backing Swiatek at a top price of 31/10.
She doesn’t get as much time to line up her penetrating groundstrokes on this surface, while her serve lacks the power of many of rivals so won’t be able to fall back on that in key moments.
On the plus side, her draw is a good one – she’s in the top half and away from the strong bottom section which includes her two biggest rivals of the season so far, Aryna Sabalenka and defending champion Elena Rybakina.
But that’s not enough to make me want to get involved with a 3/1 shot who still has much to prove on the grass.
Two players who could trouble her in this quarter stand out and they are Coco Gauff and DARIA KASATKINA.
Gauff enjoyed her breakthrough here in 2019, beating Venus Williams en route to the fourth round when only 15.
She’s since been to the French Open final and established herself as a top 10 player – in fact, she’s the only teenager in the top 40.
Unlike many, she seems happy on the grass but is 17/1 a value price? I’m not too sure about that, especially when you compare those odds to the 66/1 available about Kasatkina.
At time of writing, she’s due to contest the Eastbourne final after a strong week on the south coast.
She’s been to the quarter-finals here before in 2018 when future champion Ash Barty was among her victims and is also a former runner-up in Birmingham. Her’s is not a bad grasscourt record.
Notably she leads Gauff, a potential last-16 foe, 3-0 on the head-to-head and while she’s down on that count against Swiatek, it’s interesting to see she won their only grasscourt meeting, in Eastbourne two years ago.
Admittedly, Kasatkina is capable of throwing in a shocker now and again, while she’s another who won’t be crashing service winners down with regularity.
But that’s all built into the price and a small each-way play at big odds looks worth the risk.
Second quarter
This looks a pretty open section with Jessica Pegula the leading seed, followed by Caroline Garcia.
Pegula hasn’t pulled up many trees on grass in the past, while Garcia retired in Eastbourne the other day due to a shoulder problem which was heavily taped. That does not bode well.
Donna Vekic is the obvious alternative here – she’s another with a strong grasscourt CV – but the market is well aware of that and she’s already favourite to win the quarter with some bookies. In short, there’s little value in the Croatian.
The big-serving Liudmila Samsonova and 12th seed Veronika Kudermetova both hold claims too but I’m happy to throw a dart at KATERINA SINIAKOVA, another who has shown some good form coming into the tournament.
Better known as one of the leading doubles players, the Czech has rolled into the Bad Homburg final this week where Samonsova was among her victims. The pair could meet in round three at Wimbledon.
She’ll look to follow in the footsteps of 2021 Bad Homburg champion Angie Kerber, who went on to reach the semis at Wimbledon (last year’s winner Garcia also reached round four).
While Siniakova may struggle once faced with top-quality opposition, the draw makes it more than possible that she won’t have to face anyone from the true elite until much later in the tournament.
I therefore feel that she’s worth a nibble at 33/1 to win this quarter.
Third quarter
The bottom half of the draw is absolutely stacked, with this quarter looking the toughest of the lot.
Friday’s draw could hardly have gone worse for reigning champ Elena Rybakina, who has it tough from the get-go – opening foe Shelby Rogers has a reputation for raising her game against the top players, while Alize Cornet, a likely second-round opponent, was excellent here 12 months ago, taking out Swiatek.
The Kazakh’s preparations have also been pretty disastrous.
She was forced to depart the French Open mid-tournament due to a viral illness which she admitted only last week was still bothering her – certainly enough to see her withdraw from Bad Homburg where, having lost early in Berlin, she really would have wanted to get some matches sunder her belt.
She’s also got the pressure of defending a Slam for the first time to deal with and while Rybakina has been one of the standout players of 2023, it’s hard to be anything like confident about her chances here.
There’s also the long list of talent around her in the draw.
It includes Ons Jabeur, last year’s beaten finalist. I remember tipping her last year only to see her lose the final from a set up, but this season has been a struggle and the Tunisian is in nothing like the form she was 12 months ago.
Perhaps two-time champion Petra Kvitova can capitalise.
She was an impressive winner in Berlin last week, building on her Miami success on the harcdcourts, and her big lefty serve has been a real weapon here in the past.
With those two 2023 wins, she’s proved she can compete with the best, but her Wimbledon record since her last success in 2014 has been disappointing and with the markets having reacted, it’s hard to be enthused by quotes of 12/1 given her draw.
Jelena Ostapenko, the Birmingham champion, has the big-hitting game which can take down anyone and having previously made the semis and quarters in SW19, she warrants respect.
A withdrawal in Eastbourne is a slight worry (it may well have been precautionary) but a case can certainly be made for her at around 33s.
The Latvian does, however, look to have a really hard route through the draw with last year’s semi-finalist Tatjana Maria, who has been in good form since returning to the grass, awaiting in round two. Beatriz Haddad Maia could follow and then Rybakina.
In conclusion, cases can be made for many but holes picked too. This section just looks too tricky to me – call me gutless but I’ll swerve!
Fourth quarter
There are also plenty of good players in the bottom quarter.
A few weeks ago, when she was surging towards the French Open final, I liked the look of Karolina Muchova.
She has the court craft to succeed on grass, including an excellent slice, and I see plenty of parallels with Jabeur, who made the final here 12 months ago.
If you got on at a big price during Roland Garros, great, but I don’t think there’s value left now.
She’s got a tough first-round draw against Jule Niemeier, a quarter-finalist here last season, and I’m a tad worried by the fact she’s not played any of the warm-up events – has the effort of Paris caused her notoriously fragile body problems again?
As regular readers will know, Madison Keys is a player I’ve backed on several occasions at the Slams in the past and the fact she’s reached the final in Eastbourne this week does make it tempting to have another try.
Few hit the ball harder than the American but she is error prone and only once in her career has she managed to reach a Grand Slam final (the US Open in 2017).
I also think she’d prefer the ball sitting up a bit more than it tends to do here.
I could take 50/1 but I’m not going to.
Former French Open champion Barbora Krejcikova is another who has played well in the build-up, making he final in Birmingham, but I’m going to stick with ARYNA SABALENKA.
She was my pick at the French Open but lost from match point up in the semi-finals.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about the potential impact of that but Sabalenka has looked mentally stronger this year and appears to have matured as a player.
She’s been one of the three standouts of the season so far, capturing her maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and, as already pointed out, she wasn’t too far away at Roland Garros.
With one of the biggest serves in the game, she’ll get plenty of cheap points, while she’ll also be able to hit winners from the back of the court with her unrelenting power.
Maybe grass isn’t her ideal surface but it was one on which she reached the semi-finals here in 2021 and after last year’s ban on Belarusian players, she’ll arrive back at the All England Club with a point to prove.
Having landed in the tougher half of the draw, Sabalenka’s odds have drifted to 6/1.
In a tournament which looks hard to call, that’s a price I’m prepared to take, albeit I won’t be breaking the bank over it.
Posted at 1420 BST on 01/07/23
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