Wimbledon betting tips: Andy Schooler's men's singles preview
It's been a good grasscourt season so far for our tennis tipster Andy Schooler. He's backing Roger Federer to win Wimbledon 2017, while he's also got 80/1 and 500/1 selections.
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When Roger Federer sat down at the back end of last year, planning his comeback from a six-month injury lay-off, he’d have very much had Wimbledon as his top priority.
He’s won this title seven times and an eighth would be a new record at the world’s most famous tournament. As a strong follower of tennis history, it will mean a lot to the Swiss to achieve that.
Obviously Federer’s comeback has gone way better than he or anyone could possibly have expected.
His Australian Open triumph in January stunned the tennis world and he’s since pushed on to win tournaments in Indian Wells, Miami and, in the run-up to Wimbledon, Halle.
He’s lost two matches all season and has held match points in each of those.
In summary, Federer’s season has not been perfect but it’s not been far off.
At the age of 35, that’s remarkable but Federer has spent most of his career rewriting what’s possible in the game.
Certainly that number is not a concern for those looking to back Federer in SW19.
His matches on grass don’t last long and even those who doubted Federer’s ability to win five-setters in his latter years were made to revaluate in Melbourne where, for the first time in his career, he won three five-set matches in the same tournament.
The big issue for punters is surely about the price. While Federer defied the odds to win in Australia, his 2017 form sees him head to the All England Club as the favourite. Winning here will not be a surprise.
For me, 23/10 is perfectly acceptable.
No-one has played as well as Federer this season and, after a shock loss in Stuttgart, Federer showed in Halle that he’s back in the groove after sensibly skipping the entire claycourt season. He didn’t lose a set en route to the title.
In terms of the draw, Federer’s looks pretty good.
Milos Raonic was the man who beat him in five sets in last year’s semi-finals but the Canadian hasn’t been in the same form this year, one disrupted by several injury issues. I’m not keen on his chances in 2017.
Novak Djokovic is probably the biggest danger, although the pair can’t meet until the last four and the Serb’s see-sawing form has to leave him a doubt to make it that far.
While Djokovic will have been happy to get some wins under his belt in a weak Eastbourne field, I remain to be convinced by him.
No-one saw his loss to Denis Istomin in Melbourne coming, while did people really expect David Goffin, Alex Zverev and Dominic Thiem to land the big blows they did during the claycourt season?
His coaching situation is a concern too. After Djokovic axed his entire team in the spring, Andre Agassi will be back at Wimbledon but while he’s one of the great players, his coaching record is virtually non-existent and the pair must still be getting used to each other.
I can see why some will be tempted to back Djokovic at around 6/1 – I don’t believe he’s ‘finished’ and very much expect him to win Grand Slams again.
It’s just I don’t see enough signs to suggest it will be at Wimbledon.
Juan Martin Del Potro will be no pushover if they meet in round three – the Argentine’s revamped backhand has been criticised but his much-used slice will become a potential weapon here.
Richard Gasquet, Tomas Berdych and Feliciano Lopez are also in his quarter, all of whom are capable of troubling a Djokovic who is some way short of the form which carried him to the titles here in 2014 and 2015.
The outright market makes Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal Federer’s other main title rivals but I’m also happy to take them on.
Murray’s 2017 slump had looked to be coming to an end when he made it through to the semis of the French Open.
However, he then lost to Jordan Thompson at Queen’s. In isolation, that result can be written off – best-of-three grasscourt tennis can produce such upsets – but it added to plenty of other shocks for Murray this season.
After playing just the once at Queen’s, the Scot was quick to add two exhibition matches to his schedule but he played in neither due to a hip problem which, if his Friday practice session at Wimbledon is to be taken at face value, clearly hasn’t healed.
Anyone who saw that simply can’t be backing Murray with any kind of confidence even if his Wimbledon price is now at its biggest since 2012.
As for Nadal, admittedly his season has gone almost as well as Federer’s. However, unlike the Swiss, his main priority for the campaign – the French Open – has already been and gone.
He won it – like three other claycourt tournaments – but he will never have seriously envisaged being among the favourites for Wimbledon when he ended an injury break of his own at the start of 2017.
OK, priorities change but the fact is the grass has caused Nadal’s fragile body plenty of problems in the past. His knees have long been a weakness and the bending he needs to do on this surface to reach the lower bouncing ball has proved a problem.
He may be a two-time champion but Nadal hasn’t been past the last 16 here since 2011 and these quotes, given in his French Open winner’s press conference, say all I need to know.
“It's true that after 2012 what happened with my knees have been tougher and tougher to compete on grass for me.
“I hope that my knees hold well and I can have the preparation that I really need.
“If I have pain on the knees, then I know from experience that it's almost impossible.”
Well, preparation hasn’t gone to plan. He withdrew from Queen’s and even when he did finally head onto the grass for an exhibition match at the Hurlingham Club he was soundly beaten by Berdych.
I won’t read too much into that single event but given what is known about Nadal and the grass, I’m not interested in backing him at 5/1.
If you take Murray and Nadal out of the equation which I’m clearly happy to do, it opens up plenty of possibilities for each-way punters looking for a big-priced finalist.
Some will like Stan Wawrinka, a player who could complete the career Grand Slam over the next fortnight. Landing in his half will certainly encourage him but he’s got a generally poor record against the elite on grass and has never been past the quarter-finals.
I’d also be very wary of a dangerous first-round meeting with Daniil Medvedev, a rising star who has really caught the eye in this grasscourt season with his runs at both Queen’s and Eastbourne.
I instead prefer to highlight the chances of two Frenchmen, namely Lucas Pouille and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Those of you who read my 2017 season preview will know that I believe Pouille is a player going places and I feel he’s overpriced at 150/1.
A quarter-finalist here 12 months ago, he recently won the Stuttgart warm-up event – landing a 20/1 winner for this column in the process.
Seeded 14th, Pouille looks capable of causing some damage in Murray’s section (the pair could meet in the last 16).
However, it’s Tsonga I actually slightly prefer.
He’s got decent course form having twice made the semi-finals, while last season he gave eventual champion Murray his biggest test before losing in five sets.
The 32-year-old uses his athleticism to the full on grass and injury issues which has blighted his career appear to have relented of late.
Now a father, Tsonga may well bring a fresh, more relaxed attitude to this year’s tournament, one at which his fearsome serve gives him a big advantage.
He’s come out of the draw in decent enough shape with Wawrinka a possible last-16 foe. Tsonga may trail that head to head 5-3 but they’ve yet to meet on grass and I’d favour the Frenchman.
Tsonga has never beaten Murray in five grasscourt encounters but in three of them he’s forced a final set. And if he can do that against a Murray at his peak in 2016, he’s capable of taking him down now the Scot’s form has dipped considerably.
Tsonga’s year so far has seen him win in slick conditions in Marseille, while he was also the champion indoors in Rotterdam.
An early loss at Queen’s to Gilles Muller wasn’t ideal but is hardly cause for panic. He’s since beaten Raonic at Hurlingham to right some of the wrong.
At 80/1, Tsonga, the world’s 10th best player according to the rankings, is worth a bet in this section.
I’m also going to take a real punt on Roberto Bautista Agut in the second quarter, the section of Nadal and Queen’s runner-up Marin Cilic.
Most opposing Nadal will probably turn to Cilic. The Croat did serve superbly at Queen’s, being broken once all week, but he still failed to get the job done and it’s become something of a theme for him.
He’s been a quarter-finalist here in each of the last three years but failed to take chances against Djokovic, whom he lead by two sets to one, and Federer. He missed match points last year against the latter.
Top-20 wins on grass have proven harder to come by than you might think (six in 16 matches) and for that reason - plus a tricky first-week draw - I’ll oppose and get with Bautista Agut, who can be backed at a whopping 500/1.
The Spaniard has won a title on grass in the past (Den Bosch 2014) and made the last 16 at this venue two years ago.
Admittedly his game is limited when compared to some of his contemporaries but he’s long been a top-20 player and rarely gets the credit he deserves given he has very few weaknesses.
He’s beaten some decent grasscourters in the past – think Nicolas Mahut and Sam Querrey – and while he’ll undoubtedly need a bit of luck with the draw, it’s certainly possible he could take advantage of any slips from some of the vulnerable seeds in the section.
What the slippery grass of week one will do to the ailing body of Kei Nishikori has to be a worry for any fan of the Japanese – a potential third-round opponent for RBA – and if our man does meet Cilic in the last 16 he will be able to draw upon the fact he beat the Croatian in straight sets at last year’s Australian Open.
A lot of the big names in this part of the draw look opposable and a minimum-stakes punt on Bautista Agut looks worth a go, particularly for those looking to back in order to lay at a later date.
It’s almost impossible to talk about every contender’s chances in a preview like this but finally here are my thoughts on some of the other players on people’s lips:
Nick Kyrgios – The controversial Aussie will be happy with his draw – he’s in Murray’s sixteenth – but he’s struggled for fitness of late, quitting mid-match at Queen’s. Was serving superbly earlier in the season when he twice beat Djokovic but the injury issues have to be of concern.
Gilles Muller – Highly impressive in the warm-up tournaments, serving well, as he usually does on a slick surface. However, the left-hander has never been past round three in SW19 where conditions are usually slightly slower than Queen’s where he made the semis. That’s a worry.
Alex Zverev – The next big thing for many tennis followers and if you saw him beat Djokovic in the Rome final last month you will know why. However, he has a dreadful Grand Slam record and has never beaten a top-50 player in a best-of-five-set match. Easily overlooked for me.
Dominic Thiem – Handed Djokovic a bagel set at the French Open but clay is much more his domain. Faces a testing opener against 2015 quarter-finalist Vasek Pospisil.
Richard Gasquet – twice a semi-finalist here, Gasquet likes the grass and I would have seriously considered him had he landed in a different part of the draw. Has shown good form in warm-up events at Halle and Eastbourne. Could have done without having Tomas Berdych (see below) in his path.
Tomas Berdych – runner-up in 2010, a semi-finalist last year and with two other quarter-finals on his CV, the Czech will have his backers at 100/1. He’s also won six of his last seven against Gasquet, a player he could face in the last 32. Still, he’ll need a bit of help from others to get to the final – he’s won just one of his last 31 against the Big Four so beating Djokovic and Federer back to back, which may be necessary, seems unlikely in the extreme.
Where to watch on TV: BBC
Posted at 1630 BST on 30/06/17.