Wimbledon betting tips: Andy Schooler's ladies' singles preview
Our tipster Andy Schooler believes Venus Williams can have one last hurrah and win a sixth Wimbledon title.
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Jelena Ostapenko won a wide-open French Open earlier this month at a whopping 100/1 and while the chances of such a big-priced winner are somewhat slimmer at Wimbledon, there’s no doubt it has the potential for a surprise.
With last year’s winner Serena Williams absent due to her pregnancy and another former champion Maria Sharapova injured, it’s 5/1 the field in SW19 – something that hasn’t happened in the best part of 20 years.
Two-time winner Petra Kvitova heads the market following a warm-up tournament success in Birmingham.
However, I simply can’t get away from the fact that the Aegon Classic was only the Czech’s second tournament after more than six months away from the court.
It would be some story for the victim of a pre-Christmas stabbing during a burglary at her own home to win the title but despite her having the skillset to win on grass, I really wonder what happens when Kvitova gets fully tested in a close contest against a fully match-tight, elite opponent.
She’s not battle hardened right now and while she may come through such a test – or may not have to face one at all – I’m just not prepared to back her at her current price.
Karolina Pliskova, tucked in just behind Kvitova in the market, is a viable alternative. Her big serve and aggressive style of tennis has the potential to reap rewards on the grass but she’s yet to do anything at Wimbledon and a tricky second-round clash with grasscourt expert Magdalena Rybarikova won’t ease any early nerves.
Her quarter – the second – has plenty of talent in it too so I’ll look elsewhere.
At 16/1, the name of Venus Williams stands out.
She’s so at home on the courts of the All England Club where she is a five-time winner. Her big serve gets her many free points, while the athleticism which has helped shape the game over the past 20 years gets her to wide and lower bouncing balls better than most.
The last of those came nine years ago but the 37-year-old is enjoying an Indian summer to her career.
Last year she surged through the draw to reach the semi-finals here and she’s since built on that, making the final of January’s Australian Open. Had it been anyone but her sister on the other side of the net, she may well be arriving here as the oldest Grand Slam champion of them all.
There’s also been a run to the semis in Miami, while the clay campaign – always the worst part of her season – was actually pretty encouraging.
In Friday’s draw, she landed in a decent section. Elina Svitolina – who arrives under an injury cloud and with an agonising French Open defeat still in the mind – and the out-of-sorts Dominika Cibulkova are the higher seeds in her quarter.
If Williams does progress to the semis, the seedings have Simona Halep as her projected foe, although the odds suggest it will be Kvitova.
Venus never plays a grasscourt tune-up event but her clay efforts seemed good preparation for Wimbledon.
What certainly hasn’t been ideal though is the fact she’s been making front-page headlines over her involvement in a collision with another vehicle while driving in Florida. It left a 78-year-old man dead and legal cases now await.
Those who believe Williams’ mental state will be badly affected won’t want to be backing her, but on pure tennis ability I don’t think she deserves to be a 16/1 shot.
Given the circumstances, I’ll keep stakes smaller than I otherwise might have done but will still back a proven performer at the tournament.
The opposite half of the draw – the top half – is led by world number one Angelique Kerber, although there appears every chance the German loses top spot in the ranking list during Wimbledon.
She has a strong grasscourt record, including reaching the final here last season, but recent form has not been good with 14 matches already lost in 2017.
Perhaps the grass can jolt her back into decent nick – there were some encouraging signs in Eastbourne this week - but anyone who backs her at 20/1 is surely doing so more in hope than expectation.
The 2015 runner-up Garbine Muguruza is also in the top quarter but she has seriously lacked consistency of late, as summed up by her Eastbourne hammering at the hands of Barbora Strycova (she lost 6-1 6-0).
Instead I think it might be worth taking a chance on Lucie Safarova at 66/1.
The 2014 semi-finalist is another with a good track record on this surface, while the last few weeks have seen her rack up plenty of victories on grass.
Safarova made the semis in both Nottingham and Birmingham with dangerous grasscourter Tsvetana Pironkova, Dominika Cibulkova and Daria Gavrilova all beaten.
However, it was at the latter event where a problem emerged – she was forced to quit that semi-final mid-match due to a hamstring problem. That’s certainly a concern and I’d normally but put off by that.
However, in such a wide-open tournament I’m prepared to take a chance on this occasion.
A fully-fit Safarova is capable of beating the 2017 version of Kerber in round three and from there a semi-final spot looks possible.
The second quarter looks stronger with Caroline Wozniacki, Coco Vandeweghe, Kristina Mladenovic and Pliskova all in it.
However, the former two also have injury worries surrounding them with fifth seed Wozniacki arguably getting the worst draw of all the leading seeds.
It’s a tough section but I’m tempted by Mladenovic, a player enjoying a fine season. She won in St Petersburg, finished runner-up in Acapulco and made the semis in Indian Wells on the hardcourts.
After moving onto the clay she was the beaten finalist in both Stuttgart and Madrid and also made the last eight at Roland Garros.
As for the grass, it took Kvitova to beat her in Birmingham and while that could be repeated again here, I feel there’s some value in backing the Frenchwoman at 14/1 to win this quarter.
Already a Wimbledon champion in mixed doubles, the big server has made a habit of beating the world’s best - Muguruza, Kerber, Sharapova, Halep, Pliskova and Venus have all fallen at the racquet of Mladenovic in 2017 – and a player who favours the grass seems to be in the sort of form to make waves.
I’ll have a go in the quarter betting and while her poor record in tournament finals (1-6) is a concern, the 40/1 in the outright market is also worth a nibble.
Where to watch on TV: BBC
Posted at 1825 BST on 30/06/17.