Following Guineas weekend, our tipsters assess the ante-post picture - and also suggest a 33/1 French Open tennis bet.
Racing
Aidan O’Brien dominated the Guineas again but somehow the weekend seemed to extend beyond that.
For every person who pointed to Churchill’s dream run through, there will be as many wishing Rhododendron had enjoyed the same charmed passage and there’s no doubt that she looked an unlucky loser. However, opinion, naturally, remains divided as to whether she would have won with better luck (see also Barney Roy and Al Wukair).
So what happens next?
O’Brien seemed unusually clear cut (within reason) about future targets so we can expect to see Winter contest the Irish 1000 Guineas and the 7/4 seems to be a perfectly decent price to me. I’m less enamoured with the 5/2 about Rhododendron for the Oaks as there might be a few more middle-distance cards to play in the coming weeks and we saw Horseplay put down a fair marker in the Pretty Polly Stakes later on Sunday.
Winter’s price is certainly attractive in comparison to the 4/7 being offered about Churchill for the Irish 2000 Guineas with connections seemingly leaning towards the Epsom Derby for which he is 5/1 and there wasn’t anything in a three-way O’Brien finish to the Derrinstown Stud Trial that suggested those three colts were going to challenge his supremacy in the yard.
If Churchill runs in the Derby it would seem unlikely that he’ll line up in the St James’s Palace Stakes with O’Brien a long price to go down the Jim Bolger/Dawn Approach route. The Galileo colt is the 6/4 favourite for the Royal Ascot Group One but you can snaffle some 4/1 about Barney Roy which seems a price worth taking. It is the right race for him and the track will suit the inexperienced colt better than Newmarket and there’s no doubt that there’s more improvement to come from a colt who is already a high class performer.
Marsha could also be lining up at the Royal meeting after defying a penalty and an absence to win the Palace House Stakes but the sprinting division is notoriously tricky and I can pass on the 6/1 for the King’s Stand Stakes. Ian Ogg
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Tennis
With the Madrid Open taking place this week, the French Open women’s betting looks sure to be shaken up in the coming days so now looks a good time to look at what is a wide-open market.
I can’t remember the last time I saw 7/1 the field available about one of the four majors but that’s the case as things stand with no-one shorter than Simona Halep and Maria Sharapova at that price.
It’s somewhat damning that a player who has played one tournament in 15 months can be considered the favourite for such a big tournament and I’m happy to overlook Sharapova at this point despite the fact she’s a two-time Roland Garros winner.
Halep has rarely produced her best when it really matters, defending champion Garbine Muguruza is out of sorts, as is Angelique Kerber, while Karolina Pliskova prefers a faster surface than the clay.
That takes us down to some big prices and the one I like the look of right now is Svetlana Kuznetsova at 33/1.
The 2009 winner, who has been to three quarter-finals in Paris since her triumph, loves the clay and unlike many of her contemporaries isn’t fazed by this part of the season.
The 31-year-old is enjoying the twilight of her career having returned to the top 10 last season and has continued to show some impressive form this term, beating Pliskova en route to the final in Indian Wells.
She hit the clay in Stuttgart recently and only lost to eventual champion Laura Siegemund there. Expect her to rack up a few more wins in the run-up to Roland Garros – I can see her going off shorter than 33s. Andy Schooler
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Football
EFL sponsors Sky Bet are already betting on the 2017/18 season across all three divisions and while a busy transfer window is sure to follow, there could be an early chance to grab some value – remember Newcastle were on offer at 5/1 to win the Championship this time last year before going off considerably shorter.
Perhaps some will take the 14/1 about Sunderland being relegated for a second successive season.
They’ve been particularly poor this season in falling out of the top flight with three games still to play and it’s a squad which doesn’t exactly look ready to bounce straight back.
They’d have crashed out much sooner were it not for Jermain Defoe’s goals and he looks set to move on a free this summer.
As Steven Gerrard said earlier this term, without Defoe this looks “a bang average Championship squad” and experience tells me that when footballers start using the word average what they really mean is poor.
It's also hard to see keeper Jordan Pickford staying put, while others are sure to leave.
Whether owner Ellis Short is ready to invest heavily in good Championship players is open to question, while the usual uncertainty over the manager at the Stadium of Light remains. Even if David Moyes does stay, he's not managed at this level for more than 15 years.
The stats are, however, against this bet. Since the introduction of the play-off system in the 1980s, only two teams (Swindon and Wolves) have been relegated from the top two divisions in successive seasons.
In League One, Portsmouth look the sort of side who could easily be half of their current price of 8/1.
With a takeover on the cards and the potential owner promising the spend big, the League Two champions could be worth backing now.
Finally in League Two, a strong second half of the season for Colchester under John McGreal could be worth taking notice of.
In the relegation zone in November, the U’s stormed up the table and were 15 minutes away from a play-off spot on Saturday before Carlisle denied them.
A 10-game winless streak back in the autumn ultimately cost them a play-off place but if they can hold onto the majority of their players, another promotion bid could well be on the cards.
They are 3/1 to go up and 14s for the title. Andy Schooler