Men's US Open betting preview: Rafael Nadal to defend title at Flushing Meadows
Our tennis tipster Tim Clement is defying the bookmakers by insisting Rafael Nadal should be favourite at the US Open.
Recommended bets
4pts Rafael Nadal to win the US Open at 3/1
1pt each-way Marin Cilic to win the US Open at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
By Tim Clement
"The bookies are rarely wrong," they say, so leading up to major sporting events the vast majority of the time we accept that the head of betting markets are correct.
The outright odds have been moulded by millions across markets around the world and assessed by some of sport’s most informed minds, leaving us typically assessing the wild cards in the field in hope of an anomaly.
But, somehow, in the betting for this year’s men’s US Open, world No 1 and defending champion Rafael Nadal is not the favourite.
The Spaniard arrives on the back of a phenomenal 12 months, starting with his triumph at Flushing Meadows and concluding with a Toronto title, which took his 2018 win-loss record to 40-3.
At 12/5, Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic is considered ahead in the betting, presumably based on his win over the Spaniard at SW19, but questions still surround his situation.
A straight-sets final victory over a well below-par Roger Federer in Cincinnati, which completed his Masters collection, really ignited suggestions that the Serb is back to his best, but also masked the fact that he'd dropped sets in all of his previous four matches.
It was also only his second title in the 12-month period when Nadal has racked up six, while that gripping victory over the Spaniard came in controversial circumstances.
As most were debating the implications of their match delaying the start of the women’s final, Nadal had reason to feel more than a little irked by the bizarre decision to complete the contest under the Centre Court roof, maintaining an environment least suited to his game and was most enabling of the Serb’s.
Sixth seed Djokovic has also been dropped in the same quarter of the draw as Federer, who has endured a surprisingly underwhelming comeback since dodging the red dirt and arrives as a 6/1 shot.
The 37-year-old has lost three of his last four finals and the prospect of Djokovic awaiting in the quarter-finals makes the chances of him winning here for the first time in a decade look significantly less likely.
Alexander Zverev (12/1) sits on the other side of their half and will attract added attention following the appointment of Ivan Lendl, but I’d rather be backing him at the same price for the 2019 Australian Open as it should take time for the Czech to work his magic.
The 21-year-old is widely considered the future of men’s tennis but boasts just one quarter-final appearance at a major (French Open, 2018) and, like for Andy Murray, it will take some time to put Lendl’s insight into practice.
Marin Cilic offers more appeal from that section given his experience of delivering on the big stage, none more so than winning here in 2014, and is my each-way pick at 20/1.
Fellow former champion Juan Martin del Potro (16/1) is the other interesting pick as he’s risen to third in the world thanks to some impressive consistency.
He’s reached the quarter-finals or better in his last two majors and last two visits here but has failed to make the final, while he’s lost both of his 2018 meetings with potential semi-final opponent Nadal.
The Tower of Tandil’s draw is also littered with dangerous opponents, including fellow three-time Grand Slam winners Stan Wawrinka (40/1) and Andy Murray (50/1).
Both lack the form to suggest they can go on and win again here but have the weapons to dent or even down Del Potro’s chances.
So we come back to Nadal as the man who has comfortably the most convincing case as he looks to cement his status as 2018’s dominant player.
Posted at 1130 BST on 26/08/18