Our tennis man Andy Schooler is backing teenager Coco Gauff to conquer all at this year’s US Open.
Tennis betting tips: US Open women's singles
1.5pts e.w. Coco Gauff at 8/1 (Betfred)
1pt e.w. Jessica Pegula at 12/1 (Unibet)
1pt e.w. Karolina Muchova at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
US Open – women’s singles
- Flushing Meadows, New York, USA (outdoor hard)
One of my favourite films is Pulp Fiction in which the characters played by Samuel L Jackson and John Travolta famously talk about the “little differences”.
Now, it’s fair to say they weren’t talking about tennis and I’d probably get into trouble if I start mentioning some of the other words they use in that scene but it’s a nod to where I’m going with my money on this year’s women’s singles at the US Open.
Shortly after Wimbledon, COCO GAUFF hired renowned coach Brad Gilbert as part of her team and the move has paid immediate dividends.
During the summer hardcourt season, the American teenager has won titles in Washington and Cincinnati, enjoying the best run of her career so far.
It’s not happened because Gilbert has come in, torn things up and started again – you can’t do that mid-season.
Instead, it is those “little differences” which have been implemented to strong effect.
Notably, Gauff is returning from a deeper position and is being more aggressive on her own serve.
As Gilbert explained after the title success in Washington: “The game is simple: If you can break and you hold more than your opponent, you win.
“She made some big changes on the fly last week that I implemented. It’s made a huge difference. She was making a ton of returns.
“I concentrate on the little things. It’s doing things she can control at the moment.”
Gauff beat Maria Sakkari, Liudmila Samsonova and Belinda Bencic that week but a more eyecatching win arrived in Cincinnati last week when the 19-year-old took down world number one Iga Swiatek.
She went on to beat Karolina Muchova in the final and afterwards spoke about Gilbert’s work and what he had changed.
“It has just been the execution and the belief, and the things in practice, down the foot work and how I approach to the ball,” she told WTA Insider.
“I used to think that when they hit really fast at me I used to just squat and try bang it back, but I realise that is not the most consistent way to play. It’s just that mentality change… so it has just been small changes and how they have changed my perspective on that has helped
“But obviously nothing has changed drastically like people think. I didn’t change anything, it’s just those small adjustments.”
Gauff looks to be the form horse coming into Flushing Meadows and with her confidence surely now up at an all-time high, odds of 8/1 certainly look tempting.
While she is yet to win a Grand Slam title, she is only 19 and has already played in one (at last year’s French Open). She’ll have huge home support and while that also brings added pressure, Gauff has long cut a relaxed figure who seems unfazed by the attention.
Having Gilbert in her corner will surely help on that front too.
He coached Andre Agassi to six of his eight Slams and, perhaps notably, put the finishing touches to Andy Roddick’s sole Grand Slam title – taking over a few months before his golden summer of 2003 in which he won two Masters titles and the US Open.
Admittedly, Gauff’s draw could have been better – she’s landed in the same quarter as defending champion Swiatek so a rematch could come in the last eight.
But that Cincinnati victory should certainly be seen as a psychological blow struck and while Swiatek did win here during her terrific 2022 season, I remain of the opinion that the Laykold courts at Flushing Meadows are faster than ideal for the Pole.
I’m happy to make Gauff my headline pick.
USA all the way?
On the other side of the draw, I’m going to side with a player carrying similar traits to Gauff this summer, JESSICA PEGULA.
Like her compatriot, Pegula has found some good form at just the right time.
She made the semis in Washington before winning in Montreal where she became the only person to beat Gauff during the current hardcourt swing.
Swiatek was another notable scalp claimed en route to the biggest title of her career.
Such big match wins may well have fuelled the belief that Pegula can take the final steps towards a Grand Slam title.
Six times she’s reached the quarter-finals of a major but she is yet to go beyond that stage.
Her draw this time looks pretty decent – the other big seed in the third quarter, Caroline Garcia, is on a poor run and Elina Svitolina has had injury issues of late so perhaps the biggest threat will come from Liudmila Samsonova, whose big serve helped her to the Montreal final, although once there she was battered by Pegula.
The fourth quarter is led by Aryna Sabalenka, who is slated to face Pegula in the last four.
The Belarusian holds a healthy 4-1 lead over Pegula, although the one loss did come at Flushing Meadows in 2020.
But importantly Sabalenka hasn’t been at her best in recent weeks, losing to Samsonova and Muchova in the big warm-up events.
Those are far from disastrous results but throw in Sabalenka’s recent big-match ‘chokes’ – she lost from match-point up in the French Open semis and from a set up at the same stage of Wimbledon – and her price of 4/1 makes less appeal than Pegula’s.
The American is available at 12/1 and that’s worthy of some interest.
In terms of real outsiders, the tournament’s recent history suggests it’s worth seeking out someone at a bigger price.
After all, five of the last eight titles here have been won by a player outside the top 14 seeds, most famously Emma Raducanu triumphing as a qualifier in 2021.
Sadly, I’m struggling to find anyone who really stands out in what looks a fairly well balanced draw on this occasion.
The aforementioned Samsonova is a possibility at 50s but given she’s in the same section as Pegula, I’m not going to be backing her.
Much to like about Czech
The second quarter looks to have some potential here given it’s being led by Elena Rybakina, who was last seen quitting Cincinnati due to an injury issue.
She’s also never been past round three in New York and actually holds a losing 3-4 record at the venue.
Washington finalist Maria Sakkari is also very hit and miss so perhaps Belinda Bencic or Victoria Azarenka could capitalise. Both have strong records at this tournament, Bencic making the quarter-finals in 2021 and the semis in 2019, while Azarenka is a three-time runner-up, most recently in 2020.
However, KAROLINA MUCHOVA gets my vote here and she’s been playing good tennis for some time now.
The Czech unexpectedly reached the French Open final in June but her body has often let her down and she clearly had some post-tournament issues as she didn’t play a grasscourt event prior to Wimbledon, duly losing in the first round in SW19.
However, she’s been OK fitness-wise on the hardcourts, pushing Swiatek to a deciding set in Montreal before toppling Sabalenka en route to the final in Cincinnati.
Her game, full of variety, is an awkward one for opponents to deal with, as she showed in Paris.
She doesn’t quite fit the characteristics of those previous winners – she’s seeded 10th – but a price of 22/1 could be made to look big come the second week.
Posted at 1200 BST on 26/08/23
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