Free tennis betting preview and tips: Andy Schooler previews the US Open women's singles
Andy Schooler has a 22/1 shot in the women’s outright market at the US Open but he’s also keen on some big-priced outsiders in the quarter betting.
Recommended bets
1pt Petra Martic to win the first quarter at 11/1
0.75pt Anett Kontaveit to win the second quarter at 7/1
0.75pt Elena Rybakina to win the second quarter at 12/1
0.5pt Maria Sakkari to win the third quarter at 11/1
1pt Ons Jabeur to win the fourth quarter at 17/1
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US Open - Women's singles
- Flushing Meadows, New York (outdoor hard)
In recent years, women’s tennis have been hard to predict, make no mistake.
After Serena Williams spent a record-equalling 186 consecutive weeks as world number one between 2013 and 2016, the 207 weeks since have seen no fewer than eight players at the summit of the rankings.
The 13 Grand Slam tournaments in that period have produced 11 different winners, including some big outsiders – think Jelena Ostapenko, Ash Barty and, at this year’s Australian Open, Sofia Kenin.
Throw the year that is 2020 into the mix and it feels as if the US Open winner could come from almost anywhere.
The COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent bio-bubble at this year’s tournament has hit the women’s draw hard.
Only four of the world’s top 10 will be in attendance – and that has to open up the chances of those further down the ranking list. Some will regard this as the chance of a lifetime.
Some will also suggest it hands Williams a great opportunity to lance a particular boil.
Arguably the greatest player of all time remains stuck on 23 Grand Slam singles titles, one shy of Margaret Court’s record. It is one she has targeted for some time but with that aim has come added pressure.
The way I see this field, its relatively weak nature simply heaps more pressure on the American – and she’s not coped with it particularly well of late, crumbling in her four most recent Grand Slam finals, failing to win a set in any of them.
Despite this, many will expect her to win an event in which she has often delivered. She’s won it six times and in her last 10 appearances she’s always made the semi-finals.
However, she’s not won in New York since 2014 and looked far from strong in her two warm-up events, losing to Shelby Rogers in Lexington and Maria Sakkari here in the past week. Even in the three matches she won, she was taken to a final set in them all.
I’m more than happy to swerve the joint favourite.
Naomi Osaka, winner here in 2018, is the woman alongside Williams in the market and she would appear to hold stronger claims.
She was impressive in the Western and Southern Open event leading into the US Open (at time of writing she was due to meet Victoria Azarenka in the final). Her tennis is in good shape.
However, she’s not been a model of consistency since winning back-to-back Slams in 2018/19 and has a tough draw.
I’m also wary of her political activism of late. She was the player behind the recent postponement of play in New York which was essentially part of the Black Lives Matter campaign and questions over that will continue to flow during this tournament.
Osaka has spoken previously about her mental struggles in the sport and for me she’s short enough at 11/2.
Going down the market you come to top seed Karolina Pliskova but the Czech has an unconvincing record in the Slams – it’s just one final in 31 appearances now – and the former world number one made an inauspicious first-round exit in the New York warm-up event.
Australian Open champ Kenin suffered a similar fate and has generally struggled since emerging as the surprise winner in Melbourne.
Briton Johanna Konta finds herself as the joint fifth favourite after a run to the semis in the Western and Southern Open but she’s doesn’t seem to handle pressure particularly well, regularly failing to produce her best tennis at the back-end of a Slam.
She’s now made three quarter-finals and three semis at this level. A first final is still awaited though.
Instead I’ll take a punt on the player alongside her in the betting, MADISON KEYS.
The big-serving American has played some of her best tennis at Flushing Meadows and the new, speedy Laykold courts put down for this year’s tournament could well aid her chances of breaking her Grand Slam duck.
Keys’ serve is a strong one but her power off the ground is her biggest weapon – few hit the ball harder.
It does mean her game can be erratic but she’s often delivered in New York, reaching the final in 2017 and the semis a year later. Last season she made the last 16, as she did in both 2015 and 2016.
Keys’ propensity for a slick hardcourt was shown last year when she won in Cincinnati, while earlier this year she was the runner-up in Brisbane where is also plays pretty fast.
Her recent return to action was admittedly a disappointing one – losing to Ons Jabeur in New York – although, as I’ll soon show, that result was far from a disaster.
Keys is drawn in the third quarter – that of Williams and Australian Open runner-up Garbine Muguruza. However, I’ve already picked holes in Williams’ case, while Muguruza only decided to play a few days ago having withdrawn from the warm-up event due to ankle injury.
She must feel fit enough to compete but without any competitive matches in six months and little time to get used to the new courts, the Spaniard is overlooked.
The biggest test to Keys in this quarter could actually come from Williams’ recent conqueror, MARIA SAKKARI.
The Greek is rising up the rankings having shown she is able to beat the world’s elite.
Williams is just one of several big scalps in 2020 with Keys beaten at the Australian Open and Belinda Bencic taken down in St Petersburg.
Sakkari also pushed Osaka all the way in Brisbane at the start of the year.
Having played well on her return to action and with hardcourt form in the bank from earlier in the year, I want a cover bet on her to win the quarter at 11/1.
While putting up Keys to small stakes to win the event, I actually prefer the quarter markets when it comes to my value search – many first-time semi-finalists have flopped at that stage over the years.
So I’m going to pick a potential semi-finalist from the three remaining quarters, starting with the fourth where the aforementioned ONS JABEUR looks good value at 17/1.
The Tunisian maybe little known to the wider world but she’s really moved up a level in 2020 and could be on the verge of a major breakthrough.
Jabeur beat Konta and three other top-50 players en route to the Australian Open quarter-finals where she lost to eventual champion Kenin and was quick to follow that up, beating Pliskova in Doha where she again lost in the last eight.
On top of that, she also lost a nail-biter to Wimbledon champion Simona Halep in Doha, losing 7-6 in the final set.
The African star was quick out of the blocks upon tennis’ resumption, making the quarter-finals in both Lexington and New York, beating Keys in the latter before losing to eventual finalist Azarenka.
With Kenin and Aryna Sabalenka (both wildly inconsistent so far in 2020) the big seeds in this quarter, Jabeur looks a great price.
Moving into the top half of the draw, I’ll take on top seed Pliskova in the first quarter with PETRA MARTIC.
The Croatian is the eighth seed yet is 11/1 to reach the semi-finals. That seems wrong.
Yes, she’s probably best known for her claycourt ability but anyone labelling her a clay specialist is barking up the wrong tree. Martic can play on faster courts, as evidenced by two last-16 appearances at Wimbledon and a semi-final on Birmingham’s grass.
On hardcourts, she was a semi-finalist in Dubai prior to the lockdown and made the last eight of the big Wuhan tournament at the back end of 2019, a period when she also reached the final in Zhengzhou.
At last year’s US Open it took Williams to halt her run in the last 16.
Martic’s decent serve will be helped by the Laykold courts and I simply can’t have her at a double-figure price in what looks the weakest quarter.
In contrast, quarter two looks easily the strongest.
This is Osaka’s part of the draw but she seems unlikely to have things all her own way in what is a loaded section.
Petra Kvitova has a pretty disappointing record at the US Open but is a player who could go well in the faster conditions.
Teen prodigy Coco Gauff, who beat Osaka at the Australian Open, is also here – the pair could meet again in round three – while the ball-bashing Dayana Yastremska has the ability to trouble most in the draw.
However, I’m going to split stakes between ANETT KONTAVEIT (7/1) and rising star ELENA RYBAKINA (12/1).
The more experienced Kontaveit has looked good since tennis’ return, reaching the final of Palermo (on clay) and the last eight in New York where she won her first three matches in straight sets before being edged out by Osaka 7-5 in the third.
Kontaveit has already beaten Elina Svitolina and Bencic this season and notably also reached the semis of Miami last year – that event is also played on Laykold courts.
Rybakina has won more matches than any other WTA player in 2020 with the pandemic halting her remarkable start to the season, one which saw her reach four finals in the opening two months.
She won the title in Hobart but arguably her best effort was in Dubai where she beat Kenin, Pliskova and Martic before losing to Halep.
Another with a strong serve – she’s in the top 15 for service games won this season – the Kazakh has big potential and a small play on her making her major breakthrough here looks worthwhile.
Posted at 1045 BST on 29/08/20
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