Free tennis betting preview and tips: Andy Schooler previews the US Open men's singles

Recommended bets

1pt e.w. Dominic Thiem at 11/1

1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini at 66/1

0.5pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut at 40/1

0.5pt Diego Schwartzman to win the second quarter at 16/1

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US Open - Men's singles

• Flushing Meadows, New York (outdoor hard)

There will be plenty of people fully prepared to back the odds-on favourite Novak Djokovic before the US Open gets under way on Monday.

Unbeaten in 20 tour-level matches in 2020 at time of writing, the world number one didn’t take long to get back in the groove at last week’s warm-up event, also held in New York where players have gathered in a biosecure ‘bubble’ this month.

The field Djokovic is taking on is minus the two players who would probably have been the second and third favourites, namely Rafael Nadal (opted out) and Roger Federer (injured), so you could argue the Serb should be even shorter than he is.

Hopefully I’m picking up some new readers here on Sporting Life but those who have read my previews before will know I try to seek out the value, rarely choosing players from the top of the market.

That’s not to say I haven’t picked favourites before, but only when I’ve been very confident of their success have they made the coupon.

On this occasion, that isn’t the case.

Despite Djokovic’s dominance, the big question mark hanging over him concerns 2020’s defining characteristic – COVID-19.

The Serb contracted the virus in June. He’s had breathing problems in the past and given what we know about how the long-term effects the disease can leave, you have to wonder if there will be any fatigue issues should he be taken deep into the best-of-five-set matches which must be won over the next fortnight.

I’d much prefer to try to seek out some longer shots from the other side of the draw and take a delve into a quarter market or two.

With Djokovic the top seed, it’s to the bottom half of the draw I’ll head first where DOMINIC THIEM finds himself in the unusual position of second seed.

The Austrian improved markedly on hardcourts in 2019, winning a Masters 1000 title in Indian Wells before finishing runner-up at the season-ending ATP Finals in London.

He continued that form into 2020 as he made the Australian Open final, losing only in five sets to Djokovic in Melbourne.

Always one of the busier players on the tour, Thiem was no different during the tour’s suspension playing no fewer than 28 matches at the various exhibition events that were put on, many against high-quality opposition. He won 25 of them.

It was therefore a big surprise to see him blasted off the court last week by Filip Krajinovic – Thiem won only three games and just two points on return.

The speed of the new Laykold courts probably played a factor there and with Krajinovic a fine server who is really on the up, it was really ‘one of those days’ for Thiem.

Yet that one result is not enough to justify him being pushed out to 11/1 for this tournament.

Had you given me those odds this time last week, I’d have bitten your hand off.

Yes, the court speed is a potential concern but there’s a key piece of information which can allay such worries.

The two show courts – Arthur Ashe Stadium and Louis Armstrong Stadium – were not used for last week’s event but were available for player practice sessions.

Several players, including Andy Murray and Milos Raonic, spoke about how the conditions on those two courts varied considerably from the others at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Both said they were much slower.

That’s far from ideal for the tournament – and arguably makes picking a winner much harder – but in Thiem’s case it is good news.

He won’t want to be playing in fast conditions but given his status as second seed there’s a chance he’ll be scheduled to play on either Ashe or Armstrong throughout the tournament.

In reality he’ll likely head to the outer courts at some stage, probably in the first couple of rounds, but I don’t see first-round foe Jaume Munar or Bradley Klahn or Sumit Nagal (his two potential round-two opponents) being able to trouble him too much. Certainly none of the three has the weapons of Krajinovic.

Another factor in Thiem’s favour is the five-set format.

The 26-year-old is now one of the fittest players on the tour and certainly didn’t fade in that four-hour final against Djokovic in January.

He’s clearly kept in good shape during ‘lockdown’. While concerns over fatigue can be raised over many in this field, that’s not the case with Thiem.

In short, the price looks a big over-reaction and worth taking.

ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT is another whose fitness is rarely questioned – a factor I want on my side for this event, coming as it does so early in the sport’s resumption.

The Spaniard has spoken about the physical emphasis to his training during the COVID outbreak and certainly impressed in last week’s Western and Southern Open on this site, beating Richard Gasquet, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev en route to a last-four meeting with Djokovic.

It shouldn’t have come as a huge shock given his fast-starting record to seasons – and this post-lockdown return feels very much like a new campaign.

Particularly impressive was the way he dealt with the slick conditions which you’d have thought might have undermined his chances.

He wouldn’t be unhappy to head back into the slower confines of the show courts which is where a third-round meeting with Milos Raonic could well take place.

RBA has lost all five meetings with the Canadian, although many have been close affairs, and he may well need the aid of a slower court in order to break his duck there.

Still, I liked what I saw of Bautista Agut last week and his solid baseline game may be just what’s required to grind down less-fit opponents. Raonic, subjected to social-media taunts over his physique earlier this month, may well be one of those.

Despite him being in Thiem’s quarter I just can’t resist a small each-way play at 40/1.

The other player I’m keen on in the bottom half is MATTEO BERRETTINI, a semi-finalist at last year’s US Open.

That, of course, came on a DecoTurf hardcourt but he’s an all-court player who can go well in almost any conditions.

I did back him last week when he ran into big-serving Reilly Opelka and lost a serve-dominated battle – losing the only break point of the match and then a tie-break.

Given it was the Italian’s first look at the fearsome Opelka serve, I can forgive him that loss.

Berrettini has a decent serve of his own and a look through his stats for the week showed he was only broken twice in his five sets.

In short, he wasn’t that far away and his form during the recent exhos is further evidence that he’s capable of going well again in New York. Most notably, he won the Ultimate Tennis Showdown event in France, going 7-3 across the month-long tournament and beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.

Berrettini holds a 3-1 head-to-head lead over his seeded last-16 foe Andrey Rublev. He’s then slated to meet Medvedev in the last eight – the Russian won their only previous meeting 6-4 in the deciding set.

For me, there’s still enough juice in Berrettini’s 66/1 price to get involved.

Finally, I’ll head back to the top half of the draw for a bet in the second quarter – the section without Djokovic.

Tsitsipas is the firm favourite here.

While it’s hard to argue that he shouldn’t be the market leader – he had strong form early in 2020, looked decent in that aforementioned UTS event and returned to the tour impressively last week – he looks a tad short at 5/4 to make his second Grand Slam semi-final.

Alex Zverev is also in this section but his game is beset by problems at the moment and it’s DIEGO SCHWARTZMAN who looks a big price at 16/1.

The diminutive Argentine rarely gets the respect he deserves but it should be remembered that he is the ninth seed.

He’s also been to the quarter-finals here in two of the last three years – he would arguably have made the semis in 2017 but for injury and last season he ran into Nadal.

Schwartzman won his only previous hardcourt meeting against Tsitsipas and is 2-1 up on Zverev overall having defeated him here in New York 12 months ago.

He was another to run into Opelka last week (creating seven break points and breaking twice) and it can be argued that conditions will be a bit too quick for a player who has often performed well on the hardcourts.

Yet I still think 16s is too big about one of the game’s best returners in what looks the weakest of the four quarters.

Posted at 0820 BST on 28/08/20

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