Novak Djokovic has never lost an Australian Open final, but Scott Ferguson won't be surprised if that changes on Sunday. Read his betting preview.
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1pt Thiem to win and both players to win a set at 4/1
Dominic Thiem v Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic is unbeatable in Melbourne and we should just hand him his eighth title - that's how it's supposed to work isn't it?
The seven-time champion has never lost a final at Melbourne Park, defeating Andy Murray four times, Rafa Nadal twice and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in his first victory back in 2008. So which side of the ledger will Dominic Thiem enter - as his first conqueror or the newest runner-up?
The slate stands at 6-4 to Djokovic on the tour but it's a remarkable timeline. The first five contests all went his way but since then, it's not such a boat race. Four of the last five (ignoring an exhibition match at Kooyong) have gone to Thiem. Their last three clashes, all in 2019, have gone down to just a couple of points. Djokovic won 7-6 7-6 in Madrid, Thiem won the French Open semi 7-5 in the fifth, and won again at the ATP Tour Finals (indoor hardcourt) in a final set tiebreak. There is very little between this pair now.
Thiem has reached his first major final away from Roland Garros by virtue of wins this week over Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev, both in four sets. Neither victory could be classed as decisive with five of the six sets needed to win being tiebreaks, but one has to admire his ability to take the clutch points. Against both the aforementioned scalps, he prevailed despite having fewer break points and fewer converted into breaks of serve.
We know court coverage is Thiem's forte - his retrieval skills are outstanding, but so are those of the bloke at the other end. Djokovic grinds opponents into the ground with ease. This is his stage, almost on a par with Nadal in Paris. Do those recent matches against Thiem really count for much when it comes to playing on Rod Laver Arena?
The surface this year has changed. The Plexicushion was replaced by Greenset, which just happens to be the same surface as is used at the O2, where Thiem won in November. The balls changed brands to Dunlop last year and have been described as heavier and fluffier than those used on the regular tour. Yet he doesn't seem to have much trouble adjusting to the new conditions so far.
Has Djokovic truly been challenged yet in Melbourne? Roger Federer obviously wasn't fit, and while he put up a fight early he soon faded. Milos Raonic simply can't beat him (head-to-head reads 10-0), Diego Schwartzman can't match him and the others are a long way off. The acca of his six wins from the prices in my database only came to 8/15 - now it's time for his real test.
We've been on Thiem in the last two rounds, it would almost feel like betrayal to jump off the bandwagon now. This matchup works for him now, the price is right and it might just be time for a new champion in Melbourne.
Posted at 0810 GMT on 01/02/20
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