Tennis betting tips: US Open women's singles preview and best bets
Andy Schooler successfully tipped up Coco Gauff to win the 2023 US Open. Find out who he’s backing to win the women’s singles this year.
Tennis betting tips: US Open women's singles
4pts Aryna Sabalenka to win the title at 11/4 (Betfred)
0.5pt Elina Avanesyan to win quarter two at 100/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt Yulia Putintseva to win quarter two at 28/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt Marta Kostyuk to win quarter three at 16/1 (General)
US Open – Women’s Singles
- Flushing Meadows, New York, USA (outdoor hard)
Excuse me for not picking the winner of the Wimbledon ladies’ singles title last month but, to be fair, Barbora Krejcikova did go off at a best price of 225/1.
If you backed her, fair play to you.
Still, it has been a good run for this column since the tours departed SW19, including highlighting Qinwen Zheng to win Olympic gold at 25/1.
We also picked out Coco Gauff to win this title 12 months ago so let’s have a crack at finding the winner of the 2024 US Open.
To do so, I’m going to break things down with a look at each quarter…
Quarter one
As ever, the top seed resides in this section and that’s French Open champion Iga Swiatek.
She clearly warrants respect and has won big hardcourt titles in the past but she’s not as dominant on this surface as she is on the clay – and even her propensity for the red dirt didn’t manage to get her Olympic gold the other week at Roland Garros.
She may have been a little rocked by her loss to Qinwen Zheng and when she did return to the hardcourts recently in Cincinnati, the Pole lost a blockbuster semi-final against her main title rival for this event, Aryna Sabalenka.
Conditions were quick in Ohio but officials in New York are aiming for something similar with their Laykold courts set up to play medium-fast on the ITF’s Court Pace Rating – see my men’s preview for more details on that.
That would work against Swiatek, who can be rushed by the power players when the ball comes through fast.
While Swiatek did win here two years ago, that remains her only Slam title on this surface in 11 attempts. Throw in a tricky draw and a price of 15/4 makes little appeal.
This quarter includes form player Jessica Pegula and the way she played in Toronto (where she won) and Cincinnati (runner-up) suggested she was ready for a big breakthrough at this level.
The American is yet to go beyond the last eight at any of the Slams but Gauff was also Slam-less when she impressed in the lead-up events last season and duly won here.
However, I’m certainly concerned by Pegula’s comment this week about the stress involved in New York.
In what seems a daft comment to make publicly, the upstate New Yorker declared: “You go into a Slam, and I’m like, ‘Oh, man, I did so well the last couple weeks’, but you want to do it in a Slam even more.
“So now you got to start over and the anxiety and all the stress just comes right back.”
Maybe I’m reading too much into it but that doesn’t sound like the mindset of a champion and it’s certainly off-putting.
Others in this quarter include French Open semi-finalist Mirra Andreeva, who recently made the last eight in Cincy.
There’s also big-serving Liudmila Samsonova, a quarter-finalist in both Toronto and Cincinnati, while feisty competitor Danielle Collins will be determined to go out with a bang at her final US Open before retirement.
Quarter two
Elena Rybakina is the highest seed in this section but she looks very opposable right now.
Due to either illness or injury, her body has let her down a lot of late and on the eve of the tournament she’s also parted company with her long-time coach Stefano Vukov.
Since losing her Wimbledon semi-final from a set up, the Kazakh has played just one match, losing to Leylah Fernandez in Cincinnati last week. Not for me.
Fernandez is in this quarter too and holds decent claims after showing some good sings in Ohio.
However, I prefer to go big here as I feel this part of the draw could really open up.
Expecting someone to ‘do a Krejcikova’ or repeat the run of Emma Raducanu here in 2021 is probably just daft but if anyone is able to do something at a big price, it could be ELINA AVANESYAN.
The 21-year-old may struggle for consistency but she seems to save her best for the biggest events.
Avanesyan made the last 16 of Roland Garros this season (she also did so in 2023) and the third round of the Australian Open. She beat Maria Sakkari at the latter and Qinwen Zheng at the former.
Elsewhere on hardcourts in 2024, she’s beaten Ons Jabeur and Jelena Ostapenko, so now holds 6-4 career record against top-20 players. For someone yet to crack the world’s top 50, that’s impressive.
There’s a tricky start here against Beatriz Haddad Maia – the pair have yet to meet – but if that is overcome, then there’s a good chance for the Armenian to go deep and I can’t resist odds of 100/1 about her winning this quarter.
I’m actually throwing two darts in the market with YULIA PUTINTSEVA also worth backing at 28/1.
I highlighted her decent form prior to the Olympics only for her to be forced out of the event at the last moment after injuring her knee on the morning of her opening match.
She had won in Birmingham and made the last 16 of Wimbledon before heading to Paris, while her hardcourt results earlier in the campaign were decent with the last 16 reached in both Indian Wells and Miami.
Three top-20 players were beaten across those two events and her big-hitting, baseline game has the potential to derail higher-ranked players. That game took down Gauff in Cincinnati last week.
She could have to beat Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko (or Fernandez) to make the last eight but Putintseva has more than a chance.
Quarter three
This also looks a quarter in which to take on the big guns.
They are led by defending champion Coco Gauff but her form contrasts wildly with that of 12 months ago.
She’s gone 1-2 since returning to the hardcourts after a disappointing Olympics which saw her enter all three formats in Paris but leave without a medal.
In singles, she’s not beaten a top-50 player since Berlin in mid-June and it’s going to take a massive turnaround for her to defend her title.
She’s certainly worth taking on and I also feel there are more likely winners of this section than Wimbledon queen Krejcikova.
Paula Badosa, the former world number two who returned to form impressively in Cincinnati, and Emma Navarro, who I tipped up at Wimbledon, are both strong candidates but I’m going to take a punt on MARTA KOSTYUK here.
The Ukranian has had some fine results this season, especially on this surface.
Early in the year she made the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and also finished runner-up in San Diego before a semi-final run in Indian Wells.
Recently, she was a quarter-finalist at the Olympics, only losing to Donna Vekic having held match points, and since moving back onto the hardcourts she’s played well, losing to Navarro and Swiatek in the two big lead-up events.
That’s no disgrace, although probably what’s expected here – a few wins before defeat to a higher-ranked foe.
That said, she’d only need to beat three max to win this quarter – Navarro, Gauff and Krejcikova or Maria Sakkari – so I feel there’s enough to like about her at 16/1 to make the semis.
Quarter four
Admittedly, I’ve not really discussed who I fancy outright yet and that’s because, for a change, I’m keen on the favourite.
That’s ARYNA SABALENKA, the second seed.
She climbed to the top of the market, leapfrogging Swiatek after beating her in straight sets in the Cincinnati semis before going on to lift the trophy.
It was an impressive display in conditions which suited her big-hitting game – few have the power of the Belarusian, who has learned to control it much better in the past couple of years.
After also solving a lot of problems with her serve, Sabalenka is now a two-time Australian Open champion, while she’s come close to winning this title in each of the last three years, making two semi-finals before losing out to Gauff in last year’s title match.
Her last six hardcourt Slams have now brought results of W-RU-W-SF-4R-SF which is very good consistency and I doubt she’ll be far away this time around too.
Sabalenka didn’t play the Olympics and the decision to hit the hardcourts early appears to have paid dividends, certainly having seen her in Cincy.
Potential bumps in the road in the quarter include the hard-hitting Madison Keys, who I’ve often turned to in the past, although she was last seen limping away from the Canadian Open in Toronto.
Olympic champion and Australian Open finalist Qinwen Zheng is also here but she faces a tough opener with Amanda Anisimova, another with the potential to go well following a good run in recent weeks.
Still, Sabalenka looks the class of the field, never mind the quarter, and I’m happy to back her to add this title to her Australian Open one.
Posted at 1730 BST on 23/08/24
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