Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan
The best young talent in men’s tennis will be showcased at this week’s Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan and our Andy Schooler has a 10/1 selection.
Tennis betting tips: Next Gen Finals
1pt e.w. Hugo Gaston to win the title at 10/1 (William Hill, Betfred 1/3, 1,2)
3pts Carlos Alcaraz to win Group A at 8/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals
- Milan, Italy (indoor hard)
The ATP’s showcase of its ‘next generation’ of stars takes place this week with the best eight players aged 21 and under gathered in Milan.
Actually, that should say eight of the best because, as has been the case since the event’s inception in 2017, it has been hit by some high-profile withdrawals.
In three previous editions, the best young player of the year has yet to play in the Next Gen ATP Finals and that’s again the scenario this season with Jannik Sinner having withdrawn, along with second-ranked Felix Auger-Aliassime and rising American star Jenson Brooksby.
There’s still plenty of talent assembled though, including two of the world’s top 50 – Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Korda.
The tournament, previously won by Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hyeon Chung, is arguably best known for its innovation.
As tournament director Ross Hutchins said at the weekend: "This event has always been about pushing the boundaries and trialling new ideas."
The 2021 version continues largely as it did in 2019.
Most notably, matches take place over the best-of-five sets, although each of those sets is played in the 'Fast4' format of first to four games.
This makes tie-breaks more likely and one metric bettors should consider is a player’s record in them.
There is also no ad scoring – so it’s game point at deuce.
New for 2021 are shorter warm-ups – players will get just a one-minute knock-up – while coaching will be allowed courtside (previously players had been able to use a headset to communicate with their coach).
In a nod to the storm which encircled Tsitsipas as the recent US Open, toilet breaks have been limited to three minutes.
The venue remains the same as in 2019, the Allianz Cloud, although those studying tournament history should note that the first two editions were played across the city at the Fiera Milano.
Still, all three previous tournaments have used the GreenSet Grand Prix surface which has played fairly slow – it’s the surface used at the recent Paris Masters – and it remains in place this year.
It’s not the friend of the power-hitting, big servers, and will likely favour those prepared to grind out points from the baseline.
Let’s take a look at the contenders, who have been split into two groups - the top two in each progress to the semi-finals.
GROUP A
Carlos Alcaraz
- Odds: Title – 31/20; Group – 8/11
- Race position: 3
- Ranking: 32
- 2021 win-loss record (tour level): 27-17
- 2021 best performances: W Umag, SF Vienna, Winston-Salem, Marbella, QF US Open
- Recent form: L16 Paris, SF Vienna, L64 Indian Wells
Record v group opponents:
v Nakashima – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 1-0
v Cerundolo – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Rune – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
The youngest player in the field is also the highest ranked and certainly Alcaraz is the man who has garnered the most headlines in 2021. The tennis world has known of his talent for some time but this season he’s announced his name to a much wider audience. Alcaraz had been expected to shine on clay but his results on hardcourts have actually turned out to be his most impressive – Stefanos Tsitsipas was beaten en route to the US Open quarter-finals, while Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner have also been defeated since Wimbledon. The Spaniard is the only player at this event to have a winning record against top-50 opponents this year and looks a worthy favourite.
Brandon Nakashima
- Odds: Title – 5/1; Group – 2/1
- Race position: 7
- Ranking: 63
- 2021 win-loss record (tour level): 15-10
- 2021 best performances: RU Atlanta, Los Cabos, QF Antwerp (and 2 Challenger titles)
- Recent form: W Brest (Challenger), QF Antwerp, L64 Indian Wells, L16 San Diego
Record v group opponents:
v Alcaraz – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-1
v Cerundolo – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Rune – overall: 0-0; outdoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
Nakashima is at home on a hardcourt, as he showed when reaching back-to-back ATP finals in the summer in his homeland. His experience indoors is limited but he’s shown good signs in the last few weeks, reaching the last eight in Antwerp before returning to the Challenger Tour and winning the title in Brest without losing a set. That stands him in good stead here. Has the strongest serve in this field – an impressive 87% hold ratio on hard this year – although conditions will likely blunt that delivery somewhat. Will be confident of making the semi-finals, although a losing tie-break record in 2021 is something of a concern.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
- Odds: Title – 66/1; Group – 12/1
- Race position: 8
- Ranking: 91
- 2021 win-loss record (tour level): 6-3
- 2021 best performances: W Cordoba (and 3 Challenger titles)
- Recent form: RU Lima (Challenger), SF Buenos Aires (CH), QF Santiago (CH), L32 Santiago (CH), QF Lima (CH)
Record v group opponents:
v Alcaraz – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Nakashima – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Rune – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
You have to fear for Cerundolo this week. The Argentine, a shock winner of the Cordoba Open at the start of the season, has played just one match off clay this year, losing in the first round of Wimbledon qualifying. His most recent hardcourt match was 13 months ago, while he last played on indoor hard in January 2020. He’s never beaten a player ranked in the top 400 on a hardcourt. With such little experience of these conditions and up against a strong field, he looks a lamb to the slaughter.
Holger Rune
- Odds: Title – 14/1; Group – 7/1
- Race position: 10
- Ranking: 109
- 2021 win-loss record (tour level): 6-11
- 2021 best performances: QF Metz, Santiago (and 4 Challenger titles)
- Recent form: W Bergamo (Challenger), L16 Brest (CH), Q Antwerp, L128 Indian Wells, QF Orleans (CH), QF Metz, QF Szczecin (CH)
Record v group opponents:
v Alcaraz – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Nakashima – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Cerundolo – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
The 18-year-old Dane is another player who has been much talked about in the lower echelons of the tennis world and 2021 saw him begin to emerge to a bigger audience. His best results have come on clay but he has shown an ability to win matches indoors this autumn, making the quarter-finals of the main-tour event in Metz in fast conditions, while he arrives here having won on the Challenger Tour in nearby Bergamo at the weekend. Has upset potential and should not be ruled out. His clash with Nakashima looks likely to decide who goes through to the last four.
GROUP B
Sebastian Korda
- Odds: Title – 3/1; Group – 17/20
- Race position: 4
- Ranking: 39
- 2021 win-loss record (tour level): 27-17
- 2021 best performances: W Parma, RU Delray Beach, QF Miami, QF Halle, L16 Wimbledon
- Recent form: L16 Paris, L16 St Petersburg, L64 Indian Wells, L16 San Diego
Record v group opponents:
v Musetti – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-1
v Baez – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Gaston – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
Started the year by shining on the hardcourts of Delray Beach and Miami before proving his all-court abilities with a maiden ATP title on Parma’s clay and then reaching the last 16 on the Wimbledon grass. Hasn’t been in great form towards the end of the year though and could be vulnerable as an odds-on shot in this group despite being the highest-ranked player by some distance.
Lorenzo Musetti
- Odds: Title – 10/1; Group – 7/2
- Race position: 6
- Ranking: 58
- 2021 win-loss record (tour level): 20-20
- 2021 best performances: SF Acapulco, Lyon, QF Cagliari, L16 French Open
- Recent form: L32 Paris, L32 Vienna, L16 Antwerp, L128 Indian Wells, L32 Sofia, L16 Nur-Sultan
Record v group opponents:
v Korda – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 1-0
v Baez – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Gaston – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-1; 2021: 0-1
The Italian will have the home crowd behind him in Milan and frankly Musetti needs a lift after a wretched run of form. Since reaching the last 16 at Roland Garros, he has gone 6-12 at all levels and the player who made his major breakthrough by beating Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori in Rome just over a year ago appears to be struggling to get out of this rut. Lost to group rival Gaston in Paris last week which doesn’t bode particularly well.
Sebastian Baez
- Odds: Title – 66/1; Group – 8/1
- Race position: 9
- Ranking: 111
- 2021 win-loss record (tour level): 1-1
- 2021 best performances: L16 Hamburg (and 5 Challenger titles)
- Recent form: L32 Guayaquil, W Buenos Aires (Challenger), W Santiago (CH), RU Santiago (CH), RU Kiev (CH)
Record v group opponents:
v Korda – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Musetti – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Gaston – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
Like Cerundolo in the other group, Baez is very much a claycourt specialist and could be out of his depth here. He was playing on clay in Ecuador less than a week ago and has only stepped off the red dirt twice this year – to play qualifying at Wimbledon and the US Open. Admittedly he did win two matches at the latter but his ATP record shows he’s never played an indoor hardcourt match, while the highest-ranked player he’s beaten on a hardcourt is the world number 284. Like his Argentine compatriot, Baez looks a bit of a whipping boy this week.
Hugo Gaston
- Odds: Title – 10/1; Group – 3/1
- Race position: 11
- Ranking: 67
- 2021 win-loss record: 9-6
- 2021 best performances: RU Gstaad, QF Paris, L16 Marseille, L64 Miami
- Recent form: QF Paris, L16 Brest (Challenger), L32 Napoli (CH), RU Barcelona (CH), SF Lisbon (CH), SF Braga (CH), L32 Szczecin (CH)
Record v group opponents:
v Korda – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
v Musetti – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 1-0; 2021: 1-0
v Baez – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2021: 0-0
Gaston’s run to the quarter-finals of the Paris Masters came at just the right time for him to qualify for this event – and it may well work for him further in Milan. With this event also being played on slow GreenSet courts, Gaston looks perfectly prepped, his victims last week including messrs Musetti and Alcaraz, both of whom are in this field. Clearly riding a wave right now, Gaston could represent some value.
VERDICT
CARLOS ALCARAZ looks the man to beat, although there’s little juice in his price of 31/20 to win the title.
He lost to Hugo Gaston in Paris last week and the pair could meet in the knockout stages here, while Sebastian Korda isn’t far behind Alcaraz in the rankings and could easily challenge him if he can rediscover his form of earlier in the year.
I instead prefer Alcaraz’s price of 8/11 TO WIN GROUP A.
He’s beaten main rival Brandon Nakashima in their only previous meeting and clearly has the best form of the quartet. It’s hard to see Juan Manuel Cerundolo featuring, while Holger Rune still looks a bit short of Alcaraz’s level.
The title value lies in the other group where HUGO GASTON's confidence boost of last week should stand him in good stead.
Conditions should be similar here and that sluggishness will suit the Frenchman down to the ground.
He’s got the best receiving stats in the field, having won 30.7% of his return games on a hardcourt. Those stats do take into account all levels but half of those matches have been against top-100 players. Apply that particular filter and he’s at 29.4% – still better than his seven rivals here.
Notably, Gaston also has the best tie-break record of the players gathered in Milan and with the shorter-sets format in play this week, that could be crucial. He’s won 14 of the 21 breakers he’s played.
A price of 10/1 looks decent with most layers paying a third of the odds for a place in the final.
Posted at 1405 GMT on 08/11/21
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