Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for latest ATP Tour action
Andy Schooler has picks at 30/1, 33/1 and 40/1 for this week’s ATP Tour events in Moscow and Antwerp.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
0.5pt e.w. Mackenzie McDonald at 33/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt e.w. Botic van de Zandschulp at 30/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt e.w. Richard Gasquet at 40/1 (BetVictor)
VTB Kremlin Cup
- Moscow, Russia (indoor hard)
It certainly crossed by mind to back both favourites this week on the ATP Tour.
Andrey Rublev heads the field in this Moscow event – he’s the only top-20 player in attendance – while Jannik Sinner is top seed in Antwerp (more on that below).
Both have first-round byes so must win only four matches to claim the title and frankly they look worthy favourites. The double pays 11/1.
Yet they are far from nailed on.
Rublev below his best
Rublev won here the last time the tournament was held, in 2019, and may well win again.
However, he’s picked up just one title in 2021 (he landed five in 2020 despite the five-month lockdown) and was playing doubles in Indian Wells as recently as Saturday. It will be a bit chillier upon arrival in Moscow.
In the singles at that event, Rublev won just one match before suffering a shock loss to Tommy Paul.
Yes, he’s at home this week and yet to secure his place in the ATP Finals, so there is motivation, but I’m still not taken enough to get with him at a best price of 11/4.
Long-term readers will know it’s not really my bag to be backing favourites when I’ve got doubts about them and my approach has been to seek big-priced players capable of producing the goods.
From the mid-market, I did consider Filip Krajinovic, a player who’s often produced his best tennis indoors.
He showed good signs of returning to form in Sofia recently, making the semi-finals, and he’s also got a decent record against Rublev, his potential semi-final opponent.
The pair are level at 2-2 with Krajinovic’s two victories coming indoors – in Rotterdam last year and here in Moscow in 2017 when, admittedly, Rublev was just making his way on the tour.
The concern for me is that it won’t be fast enough for the Serb here.
Moscow’s TPSurfaceCompetition courts have proved pretty sluggish since they were laid in 2016 – Damir Dzumhur and Pablo Carreno Busta have won here since which says much.
It’s a bit of a struggle to find an alternative but I’ve decided to plump for MACKENZIE MCDONALD at 33/1.
It’s possible the conditions will also be too slow for the American, who does like to play attacking tennis, but one of the reasons I’m keen on his chances is that he won indoors on the Challenger Tour in Nur-Sultan earlier this year where conditions were pretty similar to those he’ll find in the Russian capital.
McDonald has enjoyed a decent year, starting it with a run to the last 16 of the Australian Open and more recently reaching his first ATP Tour final in Washington.
Now up at a career-high of 57 in the rankings, he’ll doubtless be targeting the top 50 on this trip to Europe and in this first event of that swing he looks to have a decent draw with which to push his case.
Yoshihito Nishioka is first up, a player who would definitely want the courts faster than they are, with Laslo Djere or Gilles Simon to follow. Djere has won just three of his last nine matches; Simon has won three all season at tour level.
McDonald could face second seed Aslan Karatsev in the last eight but the Russian, hammered by Hubert Hurkacz in Indian Wells last week, has an awful 2-9 tour-level record on indoor hardcourts.
His opener here will be his first indoor match at any level in 11 months. In short, he looks very much worth taking on.
In an event which isn’t making huge appeal, a small bet on McDonald is the advice.
European Open
- Antwerp, Belgium (indoor hard)
As mentioned above, Jannik Sinner is the title favourite in Antwerp this week and after he successfully defended his crown indoors in Sofia recently you can see why.
But this is a stronger field than the one he faced in Bulgaria – five other top-30 players are in attendance – and the Italian did rather blot his copybook in Indian Wells where he won just one match before losing to Taylor Fritz.
I won’t be surprised if he wins again this week but 100/30 isn’t a price for everyone and I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Diego Schwartzman was on the early shortlist due to his course form – the Argentine is twice a finalist here and also made another semi-final.
I’m sure some people will be prepared to snap up 12/1 quotes but his meek surrender to Cameron Norrie in Indian Wells last week (winning just two games) is hardly a ringing endorsement for his chances here.
Throw in a tricky draw which pits him against either Andy Murray or Frances Tiafoe in his first match and I put Schwartzman in the ‘no’ pile too.
Back Botic on ideal courts
Instead it’s back to the long-term tactic of trying to tag onto those further down the market at the right time.
I’m certainly interested in seeing what BOTIC VAN DE ZANDSCHULP does this week on the medium-paced GreenSet courts, which should be to his liking.
He’s not played too much since his sensational run to the US Open quarter-finals as a qualifier but will be aiming to build on that effort during an indoor season.
His game should suit the conditions and his big serve can be expected to produce plenty of aces/unreturnables in Europe over the next few weeks.
It has done indoors in the past.
Admittedly he doesn’t have much tour-level experience on indoor hard but he did reach two Challenger finals indoors in 2020 when his serve stats were impressive.
His game has clearly come on since then and confidence will be high – across all levels, van de Zandschulp has won a lot of matches in the past few months.
The Dutchman should have plenty of support – his homeland’s border is on the outskirts of Antwerp – and there will be an element of home comforts this week.
Yes, Alexei Popyrin is an awkward opening foe and there’s no doubt he could easily fall early but I can certainly envisage this being a good week for van de Zandschulp, who looks big to me at 30/1.
Veteran can roll back the years
In the top half, I’m prepared to take a chance on former champion RICHARD GASQUET at 40/1.
The Frenchman won the inaugural tournament here in 2016 and made the last four two years later so should be happy to be back on the GreenSet. Indeed seven of his 15 career titles have come indoors.
I understand those who will question Gasquet’s credentials as a potential champion – there’s little doubt his best days are behind him – but it should be pointed out that he made an ATP final as recently as July (in Umag) and his general form is far from poor.
He beat Dan Evans and Egor Gerasimov in Winston-Salem just prior to the US Open where defeat to eventual champion Daniil Medvedev can hardly be classed as a disaster.
I like what he did subsequently too, returning to France to compete indoors at Challenger level, preparation which should help him here.
Having opted not to play in Indian Wells to prepare for the indoor campaign, Gasquet will open against eighth seed Dusan Lajovic, but the Serb has won just one of his last six matches. Compatriot Arthur Rinderknech or Federico Delbonis would follow before a quarter-final showdown with Sinner where the upset would be required.
That would obviously be a big ask but odds of 40/1 still seem a little on the large side and a small bet looks worth a try ahead of what's an undeniably tricky week.
Posted at 1735 BST on 17/10/21
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