Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for latest ATP Tour action at the Stockholm Open
The ATP Tour’s last regular-season tournament takes place in Stockholm this week – our man Andy Schooler has picks at 8/1, 25/1 and 50/1.
Recommended bets: ATP Tour – Stockholm Open
2pts win Taylor Fritz at 8/1 (BetVictor)
1pt e.w. Marton Fucsovics at 25/1 (Unibet)
0.5pt e.w. Peter Gojowczyk at 50/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)
Stockholm Open
- Stockholm, Sweden (indoor hard)
When the Stockholm Open was moved from its regular October slot to November this year, organisers would have been hoping that the race for ATP Finals qualification would be still ongoing.
That would have given this week’s event some real meaning among the fans.
Alas, the field for next week’s tournament in Turin is already locked in.
Results in Paris last week left Jannik Sinner out in the cold – he has narrowly failed to make the top eight.
The Italian, who has swept to indoor titles in Sofia and Antwerp in recent weeks, clearly entered this event thinking he’d still be fighting for a place in those ATP Finals but now I’d question whether he’ll be sufficiently motivated.
Critics will point out he did win in this very same week (in Sofia) to conclude last season but he was fresher then, particularly given the pandemic-induced lockdown saw players away from the match court for half the year.
The 20-year-old has played a lot of tennis in recent weeks. Add in the disappointment of missing out on Turin, and I feel Sinner is opposable this week as the 7/2 favourite.
His first match could be against former world number one Andy Murray and that looks exactly the sort of contest the Scot will be bang up for. Murray has been rather up and down of late but he has shown that, at his best, he can still compete with the game’s elite.
Take Fritz to slay Sinner
I’ll take Sinner on with in-form American TAYLOR FRITZ.
We sided with the big-serving Fritz in Paris last week but he ended up losing the ‘money match’ to Novak Djokovic, which was always the risk.
There was certainly no disgrace in defeat that day and the 24-year-old again showed the sort of form which has earned him some strong results over recent months.
They include a run to the semi-finals in Indian Wells where Alex Zverev, Matteo Berrettini and Sinner were all beaten, and a final appearance indoors in St Petersburg just a fortnight ago.
With his big first delivery, Fritz cut through the sluggish conditions in Paris, but the courts look set to be a bit quicker this week.
Organisers have switched back to a Plexipave surface this year – they last used it in 2010 when Roger Federer was crowned champion – and the early signs from qualifying on Saturday were that they were faster than those in the French capital.
I’d expect Fritz to win plenty of cheap points behind his serve and the confidence he brings in should mean he’s ready for one last push before heading back to the US for the off-season.
Big guns vulnerable in bottom section
Down in the bottom half, the leading seeds also look opposable.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is the man seeded to reach the final but while he’s shown glimpses of his best on the indoor circuit recently – think beating Cameron Norrie in Vienna – the fact is he’s won only three of his seven matches since reaching the US Open semis.
Filip Krajinovic could be his first foe in Sweden which would be tricky if the conditions are that bit faster.
Denis Shapovalov, the third seed, is the reigning champion but as I’ve pointed out many times before, it remains his one and only ATP Tour title.
Given he’s won just five of 14 matches since making the Wimbledon semis and withdrew from Paris, I’d certainly want more than 7/1 about him doubling that tally this week.
When seeking alternatives, I suspect those who have struggled in recent times may already be eyeing the beach so I’m looking for players who have shown a bit of form of late and will want to make the most of that situation while they can.
Step forward MARTON FUCSOVICS and PETER GOJOWCZYK.
An all-court player, Fucsovics hasn’t enjoyed his best season but it should be remembered it did include a run to the final of the Rotterdam indoors event back in the spring. He also finished runner-up indoors in Sofia in 2019.
More recently, the Hungarian has shown some encouraging signs that suggest a mid-season slump has been put behind him.
He reached the quarter-finals in Antwerp a few weeks back while last week he played well in defeat to Djokovic, pushing the world number one to a deciding set.
That’s the sort of performance which will give him a lift coming here and although the early 33/1 quotes have been snapped up, I’m happy to take the 25s which remain.
I’ll also take a punt on Gojowczyk, a player who loves a faster court, as he showed recently in Metz.
The German was a semi-finalist that week, a result which surprised many. However, perhaps it shouldn’t have.
Gojowczyk reached the quarter-finals on the Newport grass in July and then stormed to the last 16 of the US Open, another event played in quick conditions.
His attacking game, which often sees him attack the net, isn’t on display regularly these days and he has the ability to surprise opponents.
He starts against Marcos Giron before meeting either Alexander Bublik or Arthur Rinderknech, two players who have seen their form dip considerably. Then could come a meeting with the out-of-sorts Shapovalov.
That looks a pretty decent draw and certainly one I can see the 50/1 shot negotiating, if he plays to the level he’s shown in the second half of the season.
Posted at 1740 GMT on 06/11/21
- It’s worth noting that it’s a Sunday start for this event (hence the earlier-than-usual preview) and a Saturday final. The main draw is due to get under way at 1500 GMT, with just three such matches scheduled for day one.
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