Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for ATP Tour's Paris Masters
Our tennis man Andy Schooler has 6/1 and 50/1 picks for this week’s Rolex Paris Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters
2pts win Alex Zverev at 6/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Cameron Norrie at 50/1 (BetVictor)
1pt Taylor Fritz to win first quarter at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Rolex Paris Masters
- Paris, France (indoor hard)
Novak Djokovic returns to action at the Paris Masters following a seven-week lay-off but he makes little appeal as a 13/8 shot.
This is his first appearance since his bid to achieve the Grand Slam fell at the final hurdle of the US Open – a blow which must have been mentally crushing.
The champion that he is, Djokovic may well respond immediately but my view is you need to take into account what else the Serb is still playing for this season.
After Paris, Djokovic will head to Turin where he’ll be bidding to win the ATP Finals for a record-equalling fifth time, as well as sealing the year-end world number one ranking for a seventh time (he already holds that record).
And he’ll end the year by competing for Serbia in the Davis Cup Finals. Hugely patriotic, I’d go so far as to say that may be his main goal for the remainder of 2021.
That leaves what happens this week as somewhat secondary and it’s interesting to note Djokovic has also entered doubles in France.
He’ll be doing that with one eye on those Davis Cup Finals but it also suggests to me he’s not 100 per cent confident of going deep in singles and that the doubles will give him the chance to get matches under his belt prior to Turin.
In short, I’m not interested in backing Djokovic, as good as he is, at 13/8.
Instead I prefer the chances of ALEX ZVEREV at almost four times the price.
The German has arguably been the most consistent player since Wimbledon and his good form shows no sign of waning.
On Sunday he claimed the title in Vienna, defeating Frances Tiafoe in the final.
A particularly pleasing aspect of that match for Zverev was his serve which produced 19 aces and a first-serve percentage of 82. He won 80% of the points behind that first delivery. Even the second serve was decent (60% of points were won) when it was needed.
It’s a huge contrast from 12 months ago when he was delivering double faults aplenty and his second serve was a liability.
That title added to his success in Cincinnati and at the Olympics in the summer, while he was only narrowly beaten by Djokovic in the semi-finals of the US Open.
Zverev has now won 25 of his last 27 matches and 6/1 about him adding another five victories this week looks good.
Zverev made the final here last season so has shown his ability to play on the GreenSet Grand Prix surface in Bercy and what better preparation could there be for him ahead of those ATP Finals in Turin?
There’s a week between the two events so fatigue shouldn’t be too much of a worry.
Grigor Dimitrov and Casper Ruud are the two seeds he’s due to face before the semi-finals but it’s at that last-four stage where the biggest test could come – Daniil Medvedev has beaten Zverev in their last three meetings, including here in last year’s final from a set down.
That said, Zverev still leads 5-4 overall, while Medvedev has played little since the US Open and you wonder whether his motivation levels will be at their peak given he’s still taking in that maiden Grand Slam success and has already booked his spot at the ATP Finals.
Medvedev may also have to beat Jannik Sinner, one of those still busting a gut to clinch a Turin berth, in the quarter-finals, so it’s far from certain Zverev will have to overcome the second seed to reach the final.
Can Brit complete Italian job?
That chase for the last two ATP Finals spots is very much wroth taking into account – those involved in the race will be going full pelt in Paris.
Sinner, at a best price of 22/1, will certainly have his backers – I’m still wondering how he blew a 6-3 5-2 lead in the Vienna semis when this column’s money was on him. That could leave a mental scar.
The same could be said of CAMERON NORRIE, another of last week’s picks. This one managed to blow three match points as he lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime.
However, he’s a tempting price again this week – and he needs a deep run if he’s to make it to Turin.
Norrie won the last Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells a few weeks ago, adding to his title in Los Cabos and a final appearance in San Diego.
He’s really enjoyed the hardcourts in recent months and while admittedly he’s still got to deliver similar results indoors, I don’t think there’s anything in his game that’s really going to hold him back on that front.
Norrie has nine top-20 wins to his name this season, two of which have been against top-10 players.
Admittedly he likely need to add one of two more of the latter if he’s to make the final here, but Norrie is playing some great stuff right now and he’ll be giving his all to deliver the results he craves.
At 50/1, I’ll try an each-way poke.
Taylor made for indoor test
Another player who has produced some good results in recent months is TAYLOR FRITZ.
The American arrives in Paris fresh off a run to the final in St Petersburg and will be full of confidence.
That effort came off the back of a semi-final appearance in Indian Wells where Fritz beat Zverev, Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini and Sinner – arguably a career-best week.
Fritz also made semi-finals in Los Cabos and Atlanta in the summer so he’s certainly got that winning habit.
The conditions in Paris should be quicker than those in St Petersburg and that will help his big first serve which can be very difficult to return indoors.
In terms of fatigue, three straight-sets wins meant it wasn’t the toughest week of work in Russia, while there’s a two-and-a-half-week gap between this tournament and Fritz’s next event, those Davis Cup Finals. Essentially, there’s no reason for him not to go all-out here.
Andrey Rublev will have to be beaten in round two but the fifth seed is struggling for form right now having lost to Tommy Paul, Adrian Mannarino and Botic van de Vandschulp in his last three tournaments.
Sadly, Fritz is in the same section of the draw as Norrie so I’ll add him as a back-up option, siding with the American in the first-quarter betting at 14/1.
Posted at 1625 GMT on 31/10/21
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