Fresh from a highly-profitable ATP Finals, Andy Schooler is back to preview the Davis Cup Finals – as Rafael Nadal plays the final tournament of his stellar career.
Tennis betting tips: Davis Cup Finals
1pt e.w. Canada at 9/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
The Davis Cup field has been whittled down to eight with this week’s knockout stage ready to crown the world champions.
The action starts in Malaga on Tuesday with the first of the quarter-finals. The semis take place on Friday and Saturday before the final on Sunday.
The Finals are being staged at the same venue as the ongoing Billie Jean King Cup Finals, the equivalent women’s event which concludes on Wednesday.
Davis Cup Finals: Draw bracket
- Italy v Argentina
- USA v Australia
- Germany v Canada
- Netherlands v Spain
The Greenset court has played quicker than average, although a different ball will be in use for the Davis Cup – the Dunlop ATP one.
It’s the same ball that they used at the ATP Finals in Turin, where they also played on Greenset, and I suspect organisers of this competition have tried to replicate conditions from there as much as possible, although notably there’s no altitude of note here.
As for the ties themselves, it’s two singles followed by a potentially-decisive doubles. As has been the case a the BJK Cup Finals, the opening singles features each nation’s second-ranked singles player before the top-ranked players meet in the following rubber.
Before reaching our outright betting verdict, let’s look at each team and assess the four quarter-final ties…
Davis Cup Finals: Match-by-match preview
- Venue: Malaga, Spain (indoor hard)
- How to watch: BBC in the UK via the BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport website
- When: Quarter-finals Nov 19-21, Semi-finals Nov 22-23, Final Nov 24
- Format: All ties are best-of-three rubbers consisting of two singles followed by a doubles decider
Netherlands v Spain (Tuesday, 1600 GMT)
Player rankings shown in brackets are singles unless indicated by an asterisk in which case the figures are for doubles.
- Netherlands (outright odds: 50/1) – Tallon Griekspoor (40), Botic van de Zandschulp (80), Jesper de Jong (111), Wesley Koolhof (8*)
- Spain (5/2) – Carlos Alcaraz (3), Pedro Martinez (41), Roberto Bautista Agut (46), Rafael Nadal (154), Marcel Granollers (4*)
This whole week has the feel of something of a retirement party for Rafael Nadal, who will be playing the final event of his remarkable career. The thing is, will he actually play? Singles seems unlikely given he’s not been on a match court since the Olympics in July, while Roberto Bautista Agut has been playing well, winning the ATP event in Antwerp last month. He surely deserves the nod with Nadal more likely to play doubles, possibly with Alcaraz, with whom he competed at Paris 2024. Alcaraz was under the weather physically at last week’s ATP Finals but looked to be recovering at the tournament progressed. He should gain points for Spain and in this tie the Dutch look up against it. They’ve expected expectations in this competition in recent years but up against a strong host team, they will probably bow out on opening night.
Germany v Canada (Wednesday, 1100 GMT)
- Germany (12/1) – Jan-Lennard Struff (43), Daniel Altmaier (88), Yannick Hanfmann (95), Kevin Krawietz (7*), Tim Puetz (10*)
- Canada (9/1) – Denis Shapovalov (56), Gabriel Diallo (86), Alexis Galarneau (206), Milos Raonic (235), Vasek Pospisil (732)
Both teams are without their best singles player – Alex Zverev is missing for Germany, Felix Auger-Aliassime for Canada. The Germans have a very strong doubles pairing in Krawietz and Puetz, who arrive here having won the ATP Finals title on Sunday. Germany will need to keep the tie live for the decider though and Canada may be able to thwart them. Shapovalov won in Belgrade earlier this month and both he and whoever is picked as the second singles player (probably Diallo) should enjoy the slick conditions – this is a team packed with big servers. Canada don’t have a doubles specialist in their line-up but the singles stars have stepped up to the plate in the past, notably in 2022 when they emerged as champions. This looks a tough tie to call but I give Canada the slight edge.
USA v Australia (Thursday, 0900 GMT)
- USA (5/1) – Taylor Fritz (4), Tommy Paul (12), Ben Shelton (21), Rajeev Ram (30*), Austin Krajicek (43*)
- Australia (8/1) – Alexei Popyrin (24), Jordan Thompson (26 & 3*), Thanasi Kokkinakis (77), Max Purcell (12*), Matt Ebden (13*)
USA boast the best singles line-up by ranking, both players in the world’s top 12 – Fritz and Paul could win this on their own. His run to the ATP Finals final may have taken something out of Fritz but the Americans still have a good back-up in Ben Shelton. There’s also a specialist doubles team in Ram and Krajicek, although not as strong a one as some other teams. This won’t be an easy tie to negotiate though. There has been talk of Alex de Minaur receiving a late call-up to the Australia side but even if that doesn’t happen, Popyrin and Thompson have both enjoyed strong second halves of the season. The pair both hold 1-1 records against their expected singles foes. Thompson may face dual duty in doubles with regular partner Purcell – the pair just played in the ATP Finals – but Ebden is also a doubles star. If one Aussie can raise his game – and both like quicker conditions – then the upset could be on. This won’t be a cakewalk for the USA.
Italy v Argentina (Thursday, 1600 GMT)
- Italy (7/4) – Jannik Sinner (1), Lorenzo Musetti (17), Matteo Berrettini (35), Andrea Vavassori (9*), Simone Bolelli (11*)
- Argentina (35/1) – Sebastian Baez (27), Francisco Cerundolo (30), Tomas Martin Etcheverry (39), Andres Molteni (21*), Maximo Gonzalez (22*)
The tournament favourites should come through this easily enough. The court will be too quick for Argentina’s liking and Italy should wrap this up in singles. They have the world number one in fantastic form – Sinner did not lose a set en route to the ATP Finals title – plus good second options in Musetti and former Wimbledon finalist Berrettini, who was a late call-up in place of Flavio Cobolli. Yes, Sinner may be jaded but he played both events last year and ended up leading Italy to Davis Cup glory. If needed, they have a doubles team which plays regularly on the ATP Tour – indeed, Vavassori and Bolelli qualified for Turin last week too. Argentina also have that specialist doubles team but they will need a singles win to stand any chance and I just don’t see that happening.
Overall verdict
The key thing when you look at the outright market is that three of the top four in the betting are in same half of the draw.
USA certainly have the toughest route, taking on Australia first, before a likely meeting with holders Italy.
It’s not an impossible task - the Americans arguably have the best singles options with Fritz and Stockholm singles champion Paul – but they fall a little short on doubles expertise in this field. 5/1 isn’t for me.
I do like the look of the Aussie team, who I feel have potential at 8/1.
They will need a singles player to play above his level but we’ve seen that happen time and again in Davis Cup over the years and both Popyrin and Thompson have claimed some notable scalps in recent months.
They are not without hope.
However, I agree with the bookies that Italy are the most likely winners. If Sinner can keep going for just a few more days, he’s highly likely to win a point in every tie and having a near-guarantee of a point is massive in this best-of-three-rubbers format.
Sinner has good singles support, while Italy’s doubles team is a strong one.
In short, they have numerous ways of winning ties, whereas it seems likely that their opponents will need everything in their plan to go right.
That said, that aren’t bombproof and I can’t be backing them at 7/4 given they will need to beat the USA or Australia and than possibly Spain if they want to claim the trophy.
I think the value in the betting lies on the other side of the draw where Spain are strong favourites to make the final.
However, there are definitely chinks in their armour.
Carlos Alcaraz has been ill and didn’t show his best tennis at the ATP Finals.
Captain David Ferrer also faces an awkward dilemma about Rafael Nadal.
Should he really be in this team at all given he’s not played since July and not a great deal at all in 2024?
There’s clearly pressure for the retiring star to play at some point but it could be to the detriment of the team.
Whoever plays second singles is going to be at least a little vulnerable, while the doubles line-up isn’t obvious. ‘Nadalcaraz’ didn’t live up to the hype at the Olympics. Will one of them form a scratch pairing with doubles specialist Marcel Granollers?
In short, there are ways to get at Spain and they make little appeal at 5/2, even with the home support.
The ones I’m going to take a chance on each way are CANADA.
The 2022 champions should enjoy the slick conditions in Malaga with a bunch of big servers in their line-up.
Denis Shapovalov looks likely to lead the way in singles and while he’s currently outside the top 50, we all know his top level is much higher than that (he’s a former top-10 player) and his form was excellent when he won in Belgrade a couple of weeks ago.
Gabriel Diallo has had some good results at times this year, notably reaching the ATP final indoors in Almaty recently, while the experienced Milos Raonic is another option if his fitness is up to scratch.
Canada don’t do doubles specialists – that’s long been the case – but Shapovalov and Vasek Pospisil have both stepped up on that front before.
In what is a tricky betting heat where I’m not seeing value in spades, the Canadians look worth a small punt at 9/1.
CLICK HERE to back Canada with Sky Bet
Posted at 1505 GMT on 18/11/24
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