Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the 2024 ATP Tour’s opening-week events in Brisbane and Hong Kong.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
2pts win Grigor Dimitrov in the Brisbane International at 6/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Marton Fucsovics in the Brisbane International at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut in the Hong Kong Open at 16/1 (General)
Bank of China Hong Kong Open
- Causeway Bay, Hong Kong (outdoor hard)
We’ve got a new tournament in the opening week of 2024 – or maybe that should be an old one brought back.
Hong Kong last appeared on the ATP Tour in 2002 when Carlos Alcaraz’s current coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, added his name to a roll of honour which includes the likes of Pete Sampras, Jimmy Connors and Ivan Lendl.
With no ‘course form’ to go on and current form also lacking, this looks a tough draw to unpick.
What we do know is that they’ll be playing on GreenSet – the same surface as the Australian Open – and using the Dunlop balls which proved controversial at times in 2023. They are the ones many players claimed fluffed up too quickly and were too heavy.
As for the draw, there’s only one top-10 player in attendance – Andrey Rublev – but all the seeds come from the world’s top 36.
Among them is Arthur Fils, a player I think will continue to rise in 2024.
He’s an all-court player capable of adapting to conditions but he’s in the same quarter as Rublev, while Frances Tiafoe is his slated semi-final opponent.
The Frenchman has the talent to win at 8/1 but that’s a pretty skinny price given he’s in the tougher half.
Given the relative lack of data we have surrounding this tournament, the player I’m looking for here is someone with a track record of starting he season fast.
And that man is ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT.
The Spaniard endured a tough time with injury in 2023, notably breaking his leg during a fall from a horse.
The former world number nine has subsequently slipped down the rankings and has already set his goal for 2024 to climb back into the top 30.
In a recent interview with Marca, RBA spoke about his tradition of starting the season well, saying: “The truth is that it is a tour that I really like and I usually leave with good feelings.”
Look at his record and the reason for that is clear.
Bautista Agut has won 11 ATP titles in his career and four of those have come in the fortnight leading up to the Australian Open – two in Auckland, one in Chennai and one in Doha. In addition, last season he was runner-up in Adelaide.
Clearly, this year is a little different with RBA unseeded and perhaps lacking a little confidence given his results in 2023.
However, last season ended well with a Challenger final in Valencia, while the off-season will have brought about a reset and chance to focus on certain elements of his game.
He certainly looked a decent nick when pushing Carlos Alcaraz all the way in a competitive exhibition match last week and so looks worth backing at 16/1 in Hong Kong.
The draw sees him face Fabian Marozsan first with fourth seed Francisco Cerundolo (more of a claycourter) awaiting the winner. Jan-Lennard Struff and Karen Khachanov are other seeds in the bottom half with RBA unable to face Rublev or Fils until the final.
That looks decent enough to me given the price involved.
Brisbane International
- Brisbane, Australia (outdoor hard)
The new season got under way the other day with the mixed United Cup team event but the first ‘regular’ draw of the 2024 campaign is taking place in Brisbane.
It’s a decent field – all the seeds from the top 35; the entry cut-off at 68 – and one led by Holger Rune, the only top-10 player in the draw.
However, the man getting all the attention will be Rafael Nadal, the 22-time Grand Slam winner making his comeback from injury after virtually a year on the sidelines.
Having indicated that 2024 may well be his last on the tour, the Spaniard will be making headlines wherever he goes this season.
Nadal has produced some incredible tennis over the past couple of decades and famously claimed the Australian Open title two years ago on the back of little preparation, but a 12-month break is the longest of his career and it’s very hard to envisage him winning this week.
Some will take note of Rune’s comment that this week’s session with Nadal was “probably the hardest practice I’ve had the last half year” but the 37-year-old has always been known for the intensity he brings to training and matchplay will bring a different aspect.
To be fair, the draw has been kind to Nadal – he’ll start against a qualifier, while next up is likely to be Aslan Karatsev, the lowest seed in the draw. Ugo Humbert is also in Nadal’s quarter with Grigor Dimitrov a possible semi-final opponent.
Still, conditions seem unlikely to be ideal for Nadal, who is just 6/1.
When the Australian Open changed to GreenSet courts in 2020, they were faster than their Plexicushion predecessors and that switch has now also occurred in Brisbane, which last staged an ATP event of this sort in 2019 (it has since been a host venue at the 2020 ATP Cup and the 2023 United Cup).
For those who have read my pre-season previews, you’ll already know I’m expecting Rune to have a good year.
Having appointed Boris Becker as coach, the Dane finished 2023 fairly strongly and he’s since added Severin Luthi to his team.
It will be interesting to see how that works but the potential is clear – he now has the former coaches of both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer at his disposal. It looks a statement of intent.
Still, I’m rarely keen to get with the favourite in the first week of the season and Rune looks short enough at 5/1.
The man I’m prepared to side with is the aforementioned GRIGOR DIMITROV and a big reason for that is his impressive record in Australia.
He won this event in 2017 and also made the final in 2013. Also on his Brisbane record are two other semi-final appearances and two quarter-finals, while he’s a former Sydney finalist too.
The Australian Open has also been a good venue for the Bulgarian – his best of the four Slams. He made the semis in 2017, playing out a memorable five-set battle with Nadal, and also has three other quarter-finals on his CV, the most recent in 2021.
He’ll be confident of another good run this year.
Dimitrov really shone in the final few months of last season, finishing runner-up at the Paris Masters just weeks after making the semis in Shanghai. There were also last-four appearances in Chengdu and Washington.
During that period, Dimitrov posted wins over Rune, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas to clearly show he’s capable of beating the best.
There are many of that quality here this week but that run should have set Dimitrov up nicely for the off-season and the knowledge that he’s performed well Down Under over the years means he’ll bring plenty of confidence to the table.
Admittedly, his draw could have been easier with Andy Murray his first-round foe. However, while the two-time champion remains dangerous on his day, consistency is lacking and it’s notable that when the pair last met at last season’s US Open, Murray won only eight games in three sets.
At 6/1, Dimitrov gets the vote.
Long-term readers will know I like to look for some long-odds, each-way value and so in the top half I’m going to take a punt on MARTON FUCSOVICS.
He’s a player who has also started seasons well Down Under in the past.
This time last year, he opened his campaign by winning a Challenger title in Canberra before going to reach the third round of the Australian Open where he led Jannik Sinner by two sets to love before running out of gas.
He also made the third round in Melbourne in 2021 (beating seed Stan Wawrinka) and the last 16 in 2020 (defeating seed Denis Shapovalov). The latter run came after an opening-week quarter-final in Doha.
And if you go back to 2016, Fucsovics was again a finalist in Canberra before beating another seed, Sam Querrey, en route to the last 32 in Melbourne.
Still Hungary’s number one, Fucsovics has reported an “excellent” four-week off-season and has also spoken about how the rise of compatriot Fabian Marozsan is pushing him on.
In Brisbane, he’ll open against Matteo Arnaldi but he won their only previous meeting (in Canberra 12 months ago). The first seed he could face is Seabstian Baez, best known for his claycourt exploits, with Ben Shelton next in line (the pair are yet to meet).
Fucsovics does bring plenty of power to the court and is flat hitting can rush opponents so he would not be without a chance against anyone in this draw.
I think he’s worth a try at 40/1.
Posted at 1130 GMT on 31/12/23; updated at 1540 GMT on 01/01/24
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