Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Shanghai Masters preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Daniil Medvedev at 15/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)

0.5pt e.w. Taylor Fritz at 30/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)

0.5pt Marin Cilic to win the second quarter at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Rolex Shanghai Masters

• Shanghai, China (outdoor hard)

There’s a top-class field gathered in Shanghai this week for the penultimate Masters 1000 event of the ATP Tour season.

Only one of the top 10 is missing – defending champion Hubert Hurkacz, who this column tipped up at 40/1 last year, is struggling with injury at present.

That means Novak Djokovic returns to action for the first time since the US Open but it’s hard to know what to expect from the Serb.

It wasn’t the biggest surprise to see him struggle in New York in the wake of his Olympic gold-medal achievement.

That was his main goal for the 2024 season and with that having been achieved, motivation was a concern heading into the US Open and remains one now.

The competitor in him will want to qualify for the ATP Finals – he is currently just outside the qualification places – but how much that means at the age of 37 is open to question. Would two extra weeks off be better in terms of a crack at the 2025 Australian Open, an event Djokovic has dominated in the past? The answer is surely yes.

Whatever his mental approach in this and the coming weeks, there seems likely to be some rust to shake off.

He’s played only four matches in the past two months and his three wins have all come against players ranked outside the top 100. I can’t be backing him at 7/2.

My concerns over the other market leaders, namely Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, stem from the fact they are still playing in Beijing at time of writing.

OK, the seeds all get a first-round bye in Shanghai, an event which is now strung out over 12 days, but there are still six matches to be won and high-quality opponents to beat.

Both have seen their body let them down at times throughout the season and with both men already qualified for those ATP Finals, you can query the need to really push themselves this week.

None of those top three in the betting is above 7/2. That’s short enough for me.

It’s the next name in the list who looks to provide better value and that’s DANIIL MEDVEDEV.

He’s a player who should enjoy the slick DecoTurf courts on offer in Shanghai.

This venue is one of the quicker ones of the ATP Tour. Hurkacz made the most of that factor last year, while this was always one of Roger Federer’s favourite events – he won it on two occasions, plus the ATP Finals twice when it was held here.

Medvedev’s name is also on the roll of honour. He won in Shanghai in 2019.

It hasn’t been the Russian’s greatest season but he’s picked up recently, making the quarter-finals of the US Open, losing in four sets to the eventual champion Sinner, and the semis in Beijing last week before being beaten by Alcaraz.

Those losses kind of show where he’s at – not quite notching the really big wins – and it could be that Sinner proves his downfall in the last eight again here.

However, at 15/1, I’m prepared to give the unorthodox Russian, who is looking to qualify for those ATP Finals, a go.

Alex Zverev looks to have the better draw, in the same half as Djokovic but avoiding both Sinner and Alcaraz until the final.

In ‘normal’ circumstances, I’d have probably looked to side with him but it’s fair to say the German hasn’t had the best of preparation for this tournament.

Last week he said he had been suffering from pneumonia and on Tuesday he revealed he had “ended up in hosptial” after the Laver Cup (which finished on September 22).

“I didn’t feel great and just didn’t have the energy to play,” he added. “I was on antibiotics for a week.”

“I have an inflammation in my lung. It’s going to take about two, three months to be completely gone.”

Zverev has vowed to continue his season but it’s hard to be enthusiastic about his chances here, even if the conditions do suit – he was runner-up to Medvedev here five years ago and also a semi-finalist in 2018.

Instead, I’m going to side with TAYLOR FRITZ in the bottom half.

The US Open finalist beat Zverev – a potential quarter-final opponent – at both that event and the Laver Cup and while he lost to Arthur Fils in his Tokyo opener last week, that was hardly a disaster given the quick turnaround and the fact that the Frenchman went on to reach the Japan Open final.

The serve has always been a big part of the Fritz game and it was working well in New York and if he finds the groove here, the conditions will make him tough to break.

He was also aggressive off the ground en route to that final at Flushing Meadows and I can see him going well here, even if a record of 4-4 in previous visits hardly screams success.

At 30/1, I’ll have a small bet.

Finally, it may be worth taking a chance on MARIN CILIC in the second quarter.

The Croatian made a spectacular return to the main tour in Hangzhou a couple of weeks ago, winning the title in what was his first tour-level event since February.

He’s another player whose serve plays a big part in any success he has and the former US Open champion will be relishing playing on these courts.

Cilic lost his serve only twice in the last four rounds in Hangzhou so, again, a similar effort here would make him a tricky opponent.

Of course, the quality of the field is considerably higher and Cilic will face Toyko finalist Ugo Humbert if he gets past Arthur Cazaux in round one.

However, Humbert could be a tad jaded and not tuned into the conditions following a quick turnaround and victory in that one could open up the draw for Cilic.

Alcaraz is the firm favourite in this quarter – he’s a possible last-16 foe for Cilic – but as already explained, the Spaniard is another with tennis in his legs.

After his Hangzhou performance, it was no shock to see Cilic lose early in Tokyo last week (in three sets to Kei Nishikori) but that defeat will have given him a decent rest and more time to prepare for this challenge.

Cilic is out at 300/1 for the title.

Some will consider that but I’ll take the 18/1 on offer about him winning the second quarter.

Posted at 1200 BST on 01/10/24

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