Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Shanghai Rolex Masters
Fresh from a 16/1 winner in Astana, our tennis man Andy Schooler previews this week’s Shanghai Rolex Masters.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Hubert Hurkacz at 40/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Ugo Humbert at 100/1 (General)
Shanghai Rolex Masters
- Shanghai, China (outdoor hard)
The ATP Tour’s Asian swing concludes this week with the Shanghai Masters getting under way on Wednesday.
It’s a low-key start to be fair – hence the layers going up pretty late with their markets – with the 32 seeds all receiving byes to round two, so they won’t play until Friday at the earliest.
It’s the first time the tour has visited the Chinese city since 2019 so we can’t be 100% sure how the courts and balls will play.
However, they are still on DecoTurf hardcourts – as they have been since this tournament began in 2009, after the success of the ATP Finals (then the Masters Cup) being held at the venue.
Those courts have tended to play faster than average in the past and subsequently this was a tournament Roger Federer enjoyed plenty of success at during his recently-ended career.
All the top names, bar world number one Novak Djokovic, have gathered to contend for the title and most of those also played at the China Open in Beijing last week. That event was still ongoing at time of writing with Jannik Sinner due to take on Daniil Medvedev in the final.
They were very much finished in Astana though where our 16/1 pick Adrian Mannarino delivered a nice winner!
Still, back to Shanghai and I’m going to break things down into quarters for this preview. So, without further ado...
First quarter
Tournament favourite Carlos Alcaraz heads the draw as top seed and you’d expect him to make the semis.
However, as I wrote last week, there’s a little bit of doubt created by the fact he’s never played this event before so getting used to conditions will bit a little tougher than usual.
He certainly failed to justify a pretty short price in Beijing where he was beaten by Jannik Sinner on Tuesday.
In terms of seeding, Dan Evans, Zhuhai champion Karen Khachanov and Taylor Fritz are those due to face Alcaraz before the last four.
Evans has been playing well and the slicker courts give him a good chance of unleashing his attacking A game, coming forward when he can.
Beijing quarter-finalists Grigor Dimitrov and Nicolas Jarry are others with potential in this section but it’s hard to see Alcaraz slipping up, if I’m honest.
That doesn’t mean I want to back him at 2/1 for the title, though.
Second quarter
This section looks of more interest to bettors given it is led by fourth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Most headlines surrounding the Greek continue to be about his relationship with Paula Badosa and not his on-court activity.
Then again, I guess it’s hard to write about on-court activity when there’s not a lot of it – Tsitsipas lost in his opening match again last week in Beijing, defeat to Nicolas Jarry meaning he’s now lost four of his last six matches.
Essentially, the 2019 semi-finalist is worth taking on here.
Some will feel Andrey Rublev can take advantage but I’m not convinced.
The Russian has only one victory over a top-15 player on hardcourts this season – and that was against Holger Rune in a match he should have lost at January’s Australian Open (Rune led the final-set tie-break 5-0 before losing it 11-9).
In short, this looks a quarter which could provide a big-priced semi-finalist.
Tommy Paul and Cam Norrie are others in this section but Paul was crushed by Daniil Medvedev in Beijing, winning just three games, while Norrie’s form hasn’t been up to his usual high standards for some time. He was another who lost early last week.
I’m therefore prepared to take another chance on UGO HUMBERT.
Perhaps that’s a mistake – he’s let me down rather too often in the past – but there’s no doubt the Frenchman is in good form at present.
He impressed in Davis Cup, beating Stan Wawrinka and Norrie in Manchester, while the left-hander saw off both Lorenzo Sonego and Rublev in Beijing last week before pushing Medvedev to a final set.
The faster conditions should help a player who loves to get to the net and volley and in a weak-looking part of the draw, Humbert might just surprise.
Ideally, he’d be backed in the quarter betting but with no such markets available at time of writing, I’ll have a small play each way at 100/1.
Third quarter
Value seekers may also want to pay close attention to this part of the draw.
Holger Rune is the highest-ranked player in it but he’s struggled for wins in recent times and has only just returned after a back problem.
I was prepared to take a risk on the Dane last week at a big price in Beijing where he did manage to notch a decent win over Felix Auger-Aliassime but then lost to Grigor Dimitrov.
While he’s got a kinder draw in this bigger field and could well be able to play himself into better form, I can’t go in again, certainly not at a lower price.
I’m also happy to run a line through Casper Ruud, despite his run to the last eight in Beijing where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz.
I think it will be a bit too quick for the Norwegian this week and there are plenty of players capable of beating him in the early rounds – his first match could be against Zhuhai runner-up Yoshihito Nishioka, while then could come Christopher Eubanks and Alex de Minaur.
The alternative I like here is HUBERT HURKACZ.
The Pole showed what he’s capable of doing in court-friendly conditions when we backed him each way in Cincinnati at 66/1 only for him to blow match point in the semi-finals.
Still, the point is that his big serve and crunching groundstrokes can be a real handful for opponents in conditions which take time away from them and that could be the case again this week.
Hurkacz faces Thanasi Kokkinakis or Fabio Fognini in his tournament opener before a possible meeting with Lorenzo Musetti. Rune could follow in the last 16.
That looks a pretty good draw to me, particularly given Hurkacz’s price of 40/1.
Fourth quarter
This looks by far the toughest of the four quarters.
Daniil Medvedev is the man seeded to make the semis but also here are Jannik Sinner and Alex Zverev – all three made the last four in Beijing last week.
There’s also US Open semi-finalist Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime and Astana finalist Seb Korda.
Medvedev is arguably the man to beat – and the bookies agree. He won here the last time the event was staged in 2019.
However, at the prices, it’s Zverev who is most tempting at 20/1.
He’s another who’s enjoyed the conditions in the past, making that 2019 final and also reached the semis the previous season.
The German has also been in fine form during the Asian swing, winning the title in Chengdu and then reaching the semi-finals in Beijing.
The problem is that’s a lot of tennis in the legs, especially when you look at the scorelines – Zverev has needed the full three sets in six of his eight matches since landing in China.
With the level of opposition also rising here – and nemesis Medvedev again in his path – I’m going to pass and focus on those bets in the other parts of the draw.
Odds correct at 2050 BST (03/10/23)
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