Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Moselle Open and Sofia Open
Our tennis man Andy Schooler bids to continue his impressive autumn when the ATP Tour rolls into Metz and Sofia this week.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
- 2pts win Ugo Humbert in the Moselle Open at 11/2 (General)
- 0.5pt e.w. Constant Lestienne in the Moselle Open at 50/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- 1pt e.w. Miomir Kecmanovic in the Sofia Open at 12/1 (BetVictor)
Moselle Open
- Metz, France (indoor hard)
I’m really not sure why there’s ATP Tour action this week but when you ask such questions of modern-day sport, money is usually the answer.
Regardless of the reasons, we’ve got two events on the schedule in the week before the season-ending ATP Finals, the first of which gets under way in Metz on Sunday.
Both are at the lowest ‘250’ level, meaning that neither the ranking points nor prize money on offer is particularly impressive so I’m therefore looking for players who will have plenty of motivation to succeed.
All the berths in those ATP Finals are already taken so that’s not a factor.
However, players who have the Davis Cup Finals to look forward to later this month fall into that motivation bracket (they’ll want to stay in good form for the looming team competition) and they include title favourite Alex de Minaur.
The problem is the Aussie arrives off the disappointment of failing to qualify for those ATP Finals, falling in the quarter-finals of last week’s Paris Masters having been a set up on Andrey Rublev.
It may be difficult for the Australian to get himself back up for an event of this nature, while I’m also a little concerned by the Slamcourt surface which is usually pretty slick – not ideal for the retrieving skills of De Minaur.
Instead, I like the chances of UGO HUMBERT.
He’s a player I tipped up at 100/1 at last month’s Shanghai Masters (where we also had a 40/1 winner!) and he duly made the quarter-finals to justify, to some extent, that faith.
Humbert beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in Shanghai and the previous week defeated another of the ATP Finals qualifiers, Rublev.
Since returning to the European indoor hardcourts, Humbert has made the semis in Basel, only losing in a final-set tie-break to Shanghai champion Hubert Hurkacz, a result which was repeated in Paris last week when he faced another top-10 star in Alex Zverev.
In short, Humbert is playing very well and that’s reflected by the fact that he’ll hit a career-high of 23rd in the rankings when the new list is published on Monday.
I’d expect him to want to continue that form into the final week of his season, particularly given he’s playing on home soil – he was born in Metz.
French players have won nine of the last 13 editions of this tournament and Humbert looks to have a strong chance of adding another title to that run with the conditions looking ideal for his big, lefty serve and propensity to come forward.
With a first-round bye, Humbert will only need to win four matches and he also looks well drawn in the second quarter where Dominic Thiem or a qualifier will be his first opponent, while Yannick Hanfmann is the other seed in the section.
Potential semi-final foes include top seed Alexander Bublik and defending champion Lorenzo Sonego.
However, Bublik is not a player to trust at 11/2, no matter his recent title success in Antwerp, while Sonego, who hasn’t been in good form, faces a tough first-round match against Marcos Giron, who should not be ruled out.
Humbert has the form and motivation to succeed here and gets the nod at 11/2.
In the bottom half, that of De Minaur, I’m going to take a punt on 50/1 CONSTANT LESTIENNE.
He’s another of the French contingent who have done so well at their home events in the past – Montpellier and Marseille are other ATP tournaments which have numerous Frenchmen on their rolls of honour.
However, the main reason for Lestienne getting my vote is his form on the Challenger Tour.
The 31-year-old has won 17 of his last 21 matches at that level, a run which has taken in hardcourt titles in St Tropez and Alicante. Most recently he made the semis in Brest.
Clearly, there’s a step up to be made here but Lestienne has played plenty of tour-level matches in the past, while the fact is this is a pretty weak 250 event – the eighth seed is ranked outside the top 50, while the final direct entrant was down at 94th in the ATP list.
Karen Khachanov seems the man most likely to stop Lestienne – the pair are due to meet in round two – but the Russian is another coming in off a hard (and ultimately disappointing) week in Paris where he lost in the quarter-finals to Tsitsipas.
He could well be downbeat heading into his final tournament of 2023 and if that’s the case then Lestienne has the form to take advantage. He also led their Roland Garros clash by two sets to love back in May.
Admittedly, it might be quicker than ideal for the French outsider but I’m still happy to place a small-stakes bet on Lestienne given the price.
Sofia Open
- Sofia, Bulgaria (indoor hard)
The event in Sofia looks even weaker than its Metz counterpart although, to be fair, it’s being staged at very short notice.
The Bulgarian capital originally lost its spot on the ATP Tour this season but stepped into host for the eighth successive year when war broke out in the Middle East, leaving Tel-Aviv unable to stage this event.
Notably, the Proflex surface on which the tournament was previously held has now become a Greenset court and the evidence of qualifying suggests it’s playing quicker than its predecessor.
That could aid the one player I’m prepared to back here, namely MIOMIR KECMANOVIC.
The Serb, who has already made two ATP finals this season, is one of those players with the Davis Cup Finals very much in his mind ahead of this week and it would do his confidence wonders to head to Malaga with a second tour-level title under his belt.
Form suggests it’s more than possible.
Last month, Kecmanovic made the semi-finals on indoor hard in Stockholm, while his quarter-final effort in Chengdu also showed his ability on a quicker court.
He opens against Jurij Rodionov, a player he crushed for the loss of just one game earlier this season, albeit on clay.
His sole match against potential second-round foe Marton Fucsovics lasted only a game longer, so Kecmanovic should like the look of his draw here.
With the other seed in his quarter being Sebastian Baez, a player who has failed to win back-to-back matches indoors this autumn, I certainly like it.
The biggest threat in what appears to be the weaker half of the draw may well turn out to be Adrian Mannarino, a former semi-finalist in Sofia, who leads their head-to-head 3-0.
He was a 16/1 winner for this column in Astana recently and again looks well drawn, a first-round bye adding to his title potential.
However, this time he’s going off at just 13/2. While I wouldn’t put others off backing the Frenchman, I prefer the 12s on offer about Kecmanovic here.
The stronger top half features three of the top four in the betting.
My eye was immediately drawn to Jack Draper when I first looked at the entries – long-term readers will know how highly I rate the Briton.
However, he’s the 6/1 favourite despite a tough draw which first pits him against Max Marterer – both were Challenger Tour finalists on Sunday – and then top seed Lorenzo Musetti (9/1). Frankly, that’s off-putting given the price, not to mention Draper’s poor injury record.
The other man at a short price in this half is third seed Jan-Lennard Struff but he’s gone just 2-6 since returning from injury a couple of months ago. The German therefore looks too short at 7/1.
He looks opposable in quarter two but the options with which to do so are not great ones.
Fabian Marozsan has potential at 20s, especially if he can rediscover his Shanghai form where he was a surprise quarter-finalist.
The Hungarian is almost playing at home here but he was last seen withdrawing with an injury problem in Vienna and it’s hard to know how he’ll be here.
Two qualifiers will drop into this section and I’ve been keeping an eye on Marc-Andrea Huesler on that front.
He’s actually the reigning champion – this column having tipped him up last season at 40/1!
Huesler’s form has been nowhere near that level of late but I’d wager that the change in conditions will work in his favour. Indeed, he posted some good serving numbers during his first qualifying round win on Saturday.
If he wins on Sunday and then gets placed in this section, the Swiss may well be available at a chunky price.
Published at 1034 BST on 05/11/23
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org