Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour preview and best bets for Japan Open, European Open & Nordic Open

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Ben Shelton in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open at 13/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

0.5pt e.w. Jack Draper in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open at 50/1 (BoyleSports)

0.5pt e.w. Christopher O’Connell in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open at 100/1 (Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM)

0.75pt e.w. Jiri Lehecka in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open at 14/1 (General)

0.75pt e.w. Gael Monfils in the BNP Parisbas Nordic Open at 20/1 (BetVictor)

1pt e.w. Arthur Fils in the European Open at 20/1 (Betfred)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Kinoshita Group Japan Open

• Tokyo, Japan (outdoor hard)

For the final time this season, there are three tournaments to preview this week on the ATP Tour, the biggest of which is in Tokyo.

It’s easy to see why – all eight seeds come from the world’s top 15 with Sunday’s Shanghai Masters champion Hubert Hurkacz (backed in this column at 40/1) not among them.

However, that doesn’t mean the title is guaranteed to head to one of those players as it’s not difficult to pick holes in many of them.

Let’s start in the top half, one led by defending champion Taylor Fritz.

While he should be glad to be back on a happy hunting ground, he won’t be pleased with a surprise defeat to Diego Schwartzman in Shanghai, where conditions favoured his big serve, while neither will the draw have raised a smile – Cameron Norrie is a tough first-round opponent who is more than capable of causing an early upset.

The pair are 6-6 on the head-to-head with Norrie winning two of the last three, including the only one this season.

My other concern for Fritz is that the Dunlop AO ball is back in use this week – the one that has received plenty of criticism for fluffing up this year.

So, while the DecoTurf courts, which usually provide a bit of pace, should suit, the slower balls may counteract that potential advantage for Fritz.

None of the other seeds in the section has pulled up tree of late with Alex de Minaur, Frances Tiafoe and Karen Khachanov mainly struggling during this Asian swing.

To be fair, Khachanov did win in Zhuhai but that was a weak event and he’s won just one of three matches since.

I couldn’t back Hurkacz again – he’s coming in off a tough week and a half in Shanghai where three of his last four matches went to a final set. He may not even show up.

I think it might be worth taking a speculative punt on JACK DRAPER here.

Yes, I know the Briton has a chequered injury history but he’s a huge talent and, when fit, is very much capable of competing at this level.

The 21-year-old already has a 20-20 career win-loss record against the top 50 – pretty good for someone who is yet to be ranked higher than 38th. He’s also 7-12 against top-20 players.

I also think it’s significant he’s here at all given he hasn’t played any of the other Asian events.

Since his impressive run to the last 16 of the US Open, where Hurkacz was among his victims, Draper has been playing on the Challenger Tour in Europe, going 6-2 in that period, but clearly he’s now ready for a final push on the main tour and flying out to Japan for this one event shows how motivated he is.

It wasn’t even as if he was guaranteed a main-draw spot – Draper had to qualify and did so in fine fashion, winning both matches in straight sets without losing his serve.

Draper is a player who has the power to cope with any fluffy balls and while he’s been handed a tough opener against De Minaur, that’s a match he should be able to dictate with his aggression.

De Minaur has some fantastic defence but the match may well be on Draper’s racquet.

A small bet at 50/1 is the call.

There look better options in the bottom half where I’m ready to back BEN SHELTON.

The American is really enjoying his first full year on tour which this week brings yet another new city.

Currently at a career-high of 19th in the rankings, Shelton narrowly missed out on a seeding but that won’t worry him.

He shone in Shanghai, beating Jannik Sinner – arguably a better player than any in this field - and reaching the quarter-finals before losing to Seb Korda 7-6 in the third.

Shelton is another with a big-hitting game, one which should account for home hope Taro Daniel in round one.

Then could come title favourite Alex Zverev, who had shown some good form before winning just four games against Roman Safiullin in Shanghai last week.

Perhaps that can be put down to the amount of tennis in his legs and, if that was the case, then a week resting up should serve the German well.

Still, Zverev, who is yet to face the huge Shelton serve, looks short enough at around 7/2.

Tommy Paul is also in this quarter but he’s struggled for wins against the elite of late and so I’m happy to take a chance on his compatriot at 13/1.

Finally, in the bottom quarter, let’s take another punt on CHRISTOPHER O’CONNELL.

He’s a player whose good form I mentioned at the start of this Asian swing (semis in Munich, champion at the Shanghai Challenger where he spoke about liking humid conditions which he should get here). He duly made the quarter-finals in Chengdu.

O’Connell did lose his opener in Shanghai last week but it was a close three-set affair against Botic van de Zandschulp and I like the look of the Aussie’s draw here.

He’ll start against Sebastian Ofner before then meeting Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud, if the seedings play out. And, frankly, that’s a fairly big if.

FAA has gone 0-2 in Asia as his miserable 2023 continues. He also has a large number of points to defend between now and the end of the season which brings more pressure.

Ruud has also struggled to match his 2022 efforts and it’s been hard to back him with any confidence for much of the year.

He was beaten by Fabian Marozsan in Shanghai and looks worth taking on again this week.

At 100/1 with those firms using the Kambi sportsbook or 66/1 with several others, O’Connell is the man to do it with, albeit to small stakes.

European Open

• Antwerp, Belgium (indoor hard)

This is the event I’m least enthused about from a betting perspective this week.

That said, the favourite, Stefanos Tsitsipas, looks worth taking on.

Since winning in Los Cabos in July, he’s won just four of his 10 matches, with three of the defeats have come against players ranked outside the top 100.

One of those was Dominic Stricker and he’s a possible opening opponent for the Greek this week (Stricker will first have to beat Botic van de Zandschulp).

I’ve no interest at all in backing Tsitsipas at 7/2, despite the fact he’s the only top-25 player in Antwerp.

An obvious possible alternative is Alexander Bublik, whose big serve usually gets him plenty of cheap points indoors.

He’s in the opposite half of the draw, alongside Richard Gasquet, who has a strong history at an event which was only founded in 2016. He was the inaugural title and has since made two semi-finals, including last year.

Still, the odds of both fail to appeal. Bublik has let me down too often with his lackadaisical attitude, while Gasquet’s form isn’t great – he won just three games in his defeat to Zhizhen Zhang in Shanghai. In short, I’d want a bigger price before backing these two.

https://twitter.com/EuroTennisOpen/status/1713233576387309630

Instead, my best bet for this event is going to be ARTHUR FILS.

The 19-year-old is a rising star of the tour and already has an ATP title to his name having won on the clay of Lyon in May.

The red dirt is arguably his best surface but Fils looks to be an all-court player and you only have to go back to the start of the season to see how he’s very capable indoors.

He started his year with back-to-back finals on the Challenger Tour and then took that form to the main tour where he reached the semis in both Montpellier and Marseille.

More recently he played well in Davis Cup against Dan Evans in Manchester and looked in control of the match but it was a contest which ended up turning on one game – when Fils lost his strong serve for the first time, Evans was able to turn things around.

However, Fils has had some decent wins of late, albeit outdoors, with Tallon Griekspoor beaten at the US Open and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina defeated in Shanghai last week.

The Frenchman has a pretty soft draw too.

As fourth seed, he has a first-round bye so will open his account against one of two Spaniards – Jaume Munar or Mark Lajal.

Juan Pablo Varillas, a claycourter, is the seed he’s due to face in the last eight but he may well lose to Fabian Marozsan in round one – the Hungarian starred in Shanghai where he reached the quarter-finals.

As a result, some will fancy backing Marozsan but he’s got a fairly quick turnaround into different conditions to deal with and may well have been priced up overly short by the layers.

Odds of 20/1 about Fils therefore appeal.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open

• Stockholm, Sweden (indoor hard)

Conditions have changed a lot in Stockholm over the years.

It was famously quick back in the 80s and 90s when the likes of Stefan Edberg and Boris Becker loved playing here.

It remained relatively fast towards the start of this century but was then slowed considerably before being sped up again in recent years when they played on a Plexipave surface.

There is more change this year though with a Laykold court laid for the first time but it’s not known exactly which type. Qualifying suggests it’s not going to be particularly fast.

Essentially, we’re punching in the dark a little here.

Hopefully it won’t be too slow and average conditions would fit nicely with two players I like, who tend to go well indoors.

I’ll start in the top half where JIRI LEHECKA is worth an interest at 14/1.

The Czech hasn’t actually got a great deal of experience indoors but when he has played with a roof over his head, the results have tended to be pretty good.

Last season he made his big breakthrough in Rotterdam, reaching the semis, while he beat Grigor Dimitrov at this venue before finishing runner-up at the NextGen ATP Finals.

Recently, he was impressive indoors in Davis Cup, going 3-0 in Valencia where he defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Laslo Djere and Soonwoo Kwon.

Here, he’ll start against a qualifier. Provided he wins, he’ll then face either wild card Elias Ymer or Roberto Bautista Agut, a player only just back from injury and one who lost to British number eight Billy Harris last week.

Holger Rune is the big name in this quarter – he’s actually the only top-20 player in the draw – but the defending champion has really struggled of late, posting just a single match victory since Wimbledon.

He’s had the aforementioned Becker in his camp recently and while that could well be a move which reaps long-term benefits, expecting immediate rewards is not advised – there’s every chance that trying out new things could take a few weeks to produce anything of note.

Rune is certainly one to oppose at 5/1 or shorter and there’s plenty to like about Lehecka here.

In the bottom half, GAEL MONFILS is the one I’m happy to take a chance on.

He’s barely played since an impressive North American hardcourt swing but that may prove to be a good thing.

Monfils is a father these days and at 37 is never going to play as regularly as he once did.

Sensibly, he’s skipped the Asian part of the tour and will now focus on a strong finish to the season in conditions he loves.

Seven of Monfils’ 10 ATP career titles have been won on indoor hardcourts, while he’s also played in another nine such finals.

Having beaten the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Cam Norrie and Alex de Minaur on those North American hardcourts, as well as testing Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev, the Frenchman should be feeling good about his game heading to Sweden.

And if you are the sort of punter that likes to drag in little nuggets which might just provide motivation, it’s wort noting that his daughter turned one at the weekend (a first title as a dad would be a good birthday present), while Monfils was notably angry at some of the responses to his entertaining but fruitless Laver Cup display (what better chance than to prove a point by winning this week?)

Admittedly, Monfils is in a tricky section of the draw with Dan Evans a likely second-round foe and either Roman Safiullin or Adrian Mannarino (two of the top three in the betting) possible quarter-final opponents.

However, an on-song Monfils is always hard to stop, especially indoors.

At 20/1, he gets my backing.

First published at 1408 BST on 15/10/23