Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour Japan Open and China Open previews and best bets
Andy Schooler landed more profits on the ATP Tour last week. Now he’s turned his focus to the tournaments in Tokyo and Beijing.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Ben Shelton in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open at 12/1 (BetVIctor)
1pt e.w. Alexei Popyrin in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open at 20/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt e.w. Jordan Thompson in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open at 50/1 (bet365)
0.5pt e.w. Alexander Bublik in the China Open at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Kinoshita Group Japan Open
- Tokyo, Japan (outdoor hard)
There’s a strong field gathered in Tokyo this week with the eight seeds all coming from the top 17 in the world rankings.
Several of the players from the Laver Cup, which concluded in Berlin on Sunday night, are here for the Wednesday start. Throw in the lengthy flight east and that’s a quick turnaround, while there’s also the transition from indoors to outdoors to deal with – one Andy Murray described as the hardest to make.
Six of the seeds are in that boat, including the top seed Taylor Fritz and his compatriot Frances Tiafoe.
Between them, the pair needed to claim only one win on the final day in Berlin to give Team World the trophy but both lost and so will arrive here on something of a downer.
Tiafoe, in particular, could be downcast having led Alex Zverev by a set and 4-2 before losing.
The American spoke at the US Open about how motivation levels aren’t as high for him outside New York and while he probably got by in the unique team atmosphere of Laver Cup, he’s someone I can see falling early this week, especially given he’s up against Bradon Nakashima first, a player who made the semis last week in Hangzhou and has already spent more than a fortnight in China.
Of the seeds, BEN SHELTON is the player I’m most keen on.
Yes, he was also on the losing side at the Laver Cup but he played well, beating Daniil Medvedev in singles, while also impressing in the doubles.
The American is the defending champion here so should be keen to keep his ranking points and thus avoid a slip down the rankings.
That also shows he is capable of playing well in these conditions – the DecoTurf courts tend to play of the slicker side of average and will help his big serve.
Shelton does face an awkward opener against fellow gun Reilly Opelka but he beat his compatriot in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago in what is their only previous meeting.
He could meet Fritz in the quarter-finals – and does trail that head-to-head 1-0 – but at almost three times the price, I feel Shelton offers much greater value.
As regular readers will know, it’s those value picks we look for in this column and so I’m also going to go with a couple of chunky prices from further down the marker, backing players who should be happy with the conditions.
First is JORDAN THOMPSON, who also resides in the top half of the draw.
The Australian played well here last season, beating Alex Zverev before losing to eventual champion Shelton in three sets.
He has been in good form since the move onto the hardcourts in July, making the final in Atlanta, the quarter-finals in Washington and the last 16 at the US Open, where he also won the doubles.
Five top-30 players have been beaten during that run and while you could argue the quality here will prove too tough a challenge, I do like the look of Thompson’s draw.
He’s in the second quarter, opening up against third seed Casper Ruud, another of the Laver Cup players. The Norwegian was part of the successful Team Europe squad.
However, Ruud failed to contribute in singles, losing his only rubber to Francisco Cerundolo to continue a disappointing run of late.
Thompson is 1-1 against Ruud on a hardcourt, his defeat coming via retirement and the win claimed earlier this season in Los Cabos.
If the Aussie can come through that one, then there’s real potential for him to go deep.
He’d face either Marin Cilic or Kei Nishikori in the next round with the former having little time to prepare following Tuesday’s Hangzhou final. It will certainly be asking the 35-year-old Croat to back that up, particularly given he had been absent from the main tour since February, prior to last week.
Home hope Nishikori is also short on matches at this level due to his injury issues.
Holger Rune is the other seed in the quarter – and a possible quarter-final foe for Thompson – but his problems continued last week in Hangzhou where he lost his opening match to Yasutaka Uchiyama.
At 50/1, Thompson is worth a punt.
Down in the bottom half, let’s side with ALEXEI POPYRIN again.
He delivered us a tasty profit in Montreal last month where he landed our quarter bet en route to actually winning the tournament.
He backed that up with the upset of defending champion Novak Djokovic at the US Open before losing to Tiafoe.
Popyrin’s strong first serve should work well here – he made the last eight 12 months ago – and, again, this is a player who looks well drawn.
Tomas Machac will be his opening opponent in the third quarter, one which has Tommy Paul and Stefanos Tsitsipas as its seeds.
However, neither has done much on the hardcourts this summer, with Paul not having played since the US Open where he beat three lowly-ranked layers before being unable to stop Jannik Sinner’s title surge.
Both men look vulnerable here and Popyrin has the form to take advantage.
In the bottom quarter, I’ve already spoken about how Tiafoe looks worth taking on this week and the same can be said of Hubert Hurkacz, who hasn’t looked 100% fit since suffering a nasty knee injury at Wimbledon.
Essentially, I’m more than happy to back Popyrin at 20/1.
China Open
- Beijing, China (outdoor hard)
It’s a strong field in Beijing this week with both world number one Jannik Sinner and Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz in the line-up.
And that’s before we get to fellow top-10 stars Daniil Medvedev, Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov.
I would not be at all surprised to see a Sinner-Alcaraz final and the market feels that is the most likely outcome with Sinner the 7/4 favourite, just ahead of Alcaraz at 2/1.
Of the two, I’d pick defending champion Sinner, although he’s playing for the first time since his US Open triumph so there is the potential for some rustiness.
Alcaraz hasn’t been at his best since Wimbledon and admitted his struggles last week prior to the Laver Cup but he performed well in that event, beating Ben Shelton and then Taylor Fritz in the deciding match, as he racked up an event-record eight points. That’s a good sign as he heads to Asia.
However, while the winner may well come from the top two seeds, the prices hardly appeal.
While Sinner may have some rust to shake off, Alcaraz has dashed here from Berlin and must now adjust to new conditions at a time of year in which he’s never gone well – the Spaniard is yet to win an ATP title in the post-US Open period of any season.
There’s also the fact that a bigger event – the Shanghai Masters – is looming next week, so there’s the possibility that something will be held back for that where double the ranking points (and more prize money) will be on offer.
Medvedev looks fairly well drawn but he lost both matches at the Laver Cup and continues to look short of his best. He’s also lost five of his last six aghainst Alcaraz, a potential semi-final opponent.
Rublev is in the second quarter but that looks loaded and how it pans out will have much to do with fatigue. There are no fewer than three of last week’s finalists in this section so while there are clearly players who are in good form, how much more will they have left to give?
Essentially, this whole event makes little appeal from a betting perspective but the one player I feel could go well at a big price is ALEXANDER BUBLIK.
Yes, I know it’s a risk.
The Kazakh be making his debut in Beijing – he didn’t play last season and the event was cancelled due to COVID in the three previous years.
However, I’d expect him to like the conditions with the DecoTurf courts having enough in them to aid the big servers and those who like to play attacking tennis.
Unlike many in the field, Bublik has already bedded into the Asian swing having played in Chengdu last week. He made the quarter-finals before losing a tight one to Jerry Shang, who went on to make the final.
Bublik won 85% of points behind his first serve in Chengdu and while he was aided by some altitude there, he’ll still be tough to break down in Beijing.
His draw looks reasonable with Flavio Cobolli (an alternate at the Laver Cup) up first before a second-round clash with wild card Yi Zhou or a qualifier.
The problem is Medvedev in the last eight – Bublik has lost all six previous meetings – but I’m prepared to take a punt on him at 50/1, hoping that the Russian loses early on. That could happen given his shaky form and meetings with Gael Monfils and (probably) Lorenzo Sonego.
Posted at 0955 BST on 24/09/24; final selection added at 1400
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