Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals Saturday best bets
Having landed eight winners from 11 bets during the group stages of the ATP Finals, Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s semi-finals in Turin.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily best bets
1pt over 12.5 games in the first set of Alex Zverev v Taylor Fritz at 12/5 (Unibet, BetMGM, BetUK)
Alex Zverev v Taylor Fritz (1330 GMT)
Zverev did everything I expected of him and more in the group stage, landing this column a 2/1 winner.
He continued where he left off in Paris, serving superbly, and backing it up with an aggressive, attacking game. He is yet to lose his serve which has looked immaculate.
The German has been criticised for being too passive at times this season with one of those occasions coming at the US Open where Fritz beat him in four tight sets.
He seems to have taken that on board, venturing to the net fairly often, although it is easier to be more aggressive in slick conditions and those in Turin look ideal for Zverev’s game.
He’ll certainly be wary of Fritz though, as am I – followers of my outright preview will land another profit if Zverev wins this match, having backed him at 13/2 each-way for the title.
Fritz followed up that US Open win with victory over Zverev at the Laver Cup, meaning he’s now won their last three meetings and leads the series 6-5 overall.
Filter down to hardcourts and it’s 5-2 in the American’s favour, while he’s also won both matches played indoors in straight sets.
That’s not great for Zverev backers and I’ve no interest in going in on him again here at around 2/5, especially given our outright position.
Fritz has served well himself and clearly has been able to deal with the Zverev delivery better than many in the past.
As well as Zverev is playing, Fritz isn’t without a chance and I can see him having his backers at 2/1.
However, I am loath to go against a player in such great form.
Instead, backing a serve-dominated match looks the way to go.
That can be done via the tie-break markets with a breaker in the match offered at a best price of 10/11.
The head-to-head record shows a tie-break in six of their last 10 meetings, while Zverev has played one in each of his last two matches in Turin.
Both of those actually came in the first set and, with that in mind, that’s the route I’m going to take here.
Both men will know it will be crucial to hold onto serve in the early stages, given how tough it’s going to be to get a break back, and so I’d expect strong focus on that element.
These conditions play into the hands of these two big servers and so I feel 12/5 is a tad overpriced.
After a successful week so far, that looks worth a try.
Jannik Sinner v Casper Ruud (1925 GMT)
For a player who came into this tournament having lost eight of his last 10 matches, Ruud has been rather impressive.
OK, he may have got a bit lucky, facing a Carlos Alcaraz who was suffering from illness, but he played well in that opening match, stayed competitive against Alex Zverev and then defeated Andrey Rublev on Friday night.
However, it’s probably that Zverev match which we need to focus on.
Ruud was unable to break serve that night and came up a bit short.
He’s been striking the ball well from the baseline, as well as on first serve, while he’s also been prepared to get to the net on occasions, which is somewhat unusual for the Norwegian.
Perhaps that’s a tactic he’ll need to use more in a bid to unsettle Sinner for his second serve – which claimed just 38% of the points against Rublev – is sure to come under serious threat here.
However, whatever he tries, I just feel Sinner will be able to do virtually everything that little better.
Like Zverev, he’s not really put a foot wrong so far, posting three straight-sets wins and losing his serve just twice.
It looks very hard to punch holes in his defence right now – Ruud will surely have to unload on the forehand in an attempt to do just that – but I don’t see him having much success.
Sinner has won their two previous meetings (both indoors in Vienna) in straight sets and I’d be surprised if this turns out any different.
Sadly, that’s around 1/3 – probably a little disrespectful to Ruud, but do I see him really challenging? The answer is no.
This match is one to swerve for me, especially with our main outright money still riding on the hot favourite.
Posted at 0655 GMT on 16/11/24
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.