It's been a profitable ATP Finals for Andy Schooler, who now has outright pick Jannik Sinner in Sunday's final. Get his preview and best bets.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily best bets
1pt under 21.5 games in Jannik Sinner v Taylor Fritz at 6/5 (BoyleSports)
Jannik Sinner v Taylor Fritz (1700 GMT)
If you followed my outright preview and have Jannik Sinner to win the title on your betslip at 6/4, that’s good news.
He’s now 1/7 to lift the trophy.
If you are in that position, backing Fritz at 5/1 to at least cover your original stake is the obvious choice.
Sinner has been majestic this week and it’s been easy to see why he’s world number one.
The Italian, sure to be roared on by a vociferous Turin crowd, has won every set 6-4 or better and has lost his serve only twice in four matches so far.
His return game has also been very strong and it’s hard to find a chink in his armour for Fritz to exploit.
He didn’t find anything when the pair met in the group stage on Tuesday and no-one could argue with the 6-4 6-4 scoreline as Fritz created just a single break-point opportunity (and failed to take it).
The good news for his fans – at least for the superstitious – is this remarkable statistic.
Twenty times the final of this event has been a rematch of a group-stage contest and on 12 occasions the final victor was the player who lost the initial meeting.
That last occurred 12 months ago when Sinner was on the wrong end of the final result against Novak Djokovic having beaten him earlier that week.
However, on that occasion, the original match showed there was little between them – Sinner winning in a final-set tie-break – so it was not a huge surprise for that one to turn around.
This time, it’s much harder to find reasons why Fritz can reverse Tuesday’s loss.
He’s now 3-1 down to Sinner in the head-to-head series, losing the last three. Fritz’s only victory came back in 2021.
This year’s meetings – the other coming in the US Open final – have both been won in straight sets by the Italian.
Across those four matches, it’s significant that Fritz has won just 68% of points behind his first serve – Sinner is 10 percentage points better off on that stat.
Fritz does hold a slight advantage on second-serve points won but he managed to win just 38% of such points on Tuesday night, while Saturday’s semi-final saw that shot come under real pressure as Alex Zverev limited Fritz to only 36%.
Looking at the stats on that match, Zverev will wonder how he didn’t win but the answer is that he again was too passive in key moments, namely the deciding tie-break.
Another major reason why Fritz was able to win that contest was that he got 72% of his first serves in play – his best such figure of the week.
However, one suspects he’ll do well to match that number on Sunday. His average for the season as whole is 62%, while the pressure Sinner puts on him helps explain why he’s down at just 57% first serves in across their four previous matches.
Sinner destroyed Casper Ruud’s second serve on Saturday night – the Norwegian won just 24% of points behind it – and this is an area where I really see him profiting.
It will be key for Fritz to land those first serves – I’d suggest he’ll need to be up above 70% again to stand a chance – but even then, it’s not hard to see Sinner having joy on the return given his numbers in those previous contests with Fritz.
Fritz has improved a lot off the ground this season but once into the rallies, Sinner’s power and precision seems likely to win the day more often. Ruud, who has had a good week, simply couldn’t cope.
In short, I think Sinner’s level has to drop for Fritz to win this and the way he’s played so far in Turin suggests that’s unlikely.
As already highlighted, he’s very short in the match betting, which obviously ripples out across the other markets.
The angle I like most is to go under the total-games line which is set at 21.5.
This landed on Tuesday and would also have done at the US Open had they been playing best-of-three. In addition, every Sinner match this week has gone under 21.5.
A tie-break may scupper the bet but it’s notable that the pair have never played one, which says much about how Sinner has dealt with the Fritz serve – he’s broken it 14 times in their four matches.
Let’s back that, safe in the knowledge it’s already been a profitable week for these match previews, and also hope that Sinner can land the outright prize.
CLICK HERE to back under 21.5 games Sky Bet
Posted at 0735 GMT on 17/11/24
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