Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour tips - ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament and ATP Buenos Aires
The ATP Tour rolls on to Rotterdam and Buenos Aires this week – Andy Schooler has selections ranging from 20/1 to 50/1 in his previews.
Tennis betting tips: ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament, men's outright
0.5pt e.w. Stan Wawrinka to win at 33/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pt e.w. Reilly Opelka to win at 50/1 (1/2 1,2 bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament
- Rotterdam, Netherlands (indoor hard)
Pandemic or no pandemic, Rotterdam tournament director Richard Krajicek has again attracted a fine field to his 500-level event – that’s 500 ranking points to the winner for those wondering.
Yes, as the way in this ‘new normal’, there have been some withdrawals but the eight seeds are all ranked in the world’s top 20 making this look a highly-competitive event.
It probably doesn’t make it the best betting heat though.
Quality has usually shone through in Rotterdam with few surprise winners on the list over the years.
This year, the bookies expect the winner to come from the top four seeds, none of which is bigger than 13/2.
It’s a fair argument but there are also doubts surrounding all of those players – Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alex Zverev and Andrey Rublev.
Medvedev is the top seed and will play again little more than a week after his emphatic Australian Open final defeat to Novak Djokovic.
Given the confident way he went into that match, the manner of defeat must have been galling and I would not be surprised to see some sort of hangover effect.
The Russian did make the semi-finals here two years ago but his 5-3 win-loss record at the Ahoy arena isn’t setting the world alight.
For me, he’s too short at 2/1.
Zverev joins Medvedev in the top half of the draw and having played well in Australia, where he pushed Djokovic hard in the quarter-finals, eventually losing in four sets, a case can be made for the German at 13/2.
However, he’s failed to shine here in the past and holds a losing record (3-4) at the event. It’s just one quarter-final appearance in four visits which has to be a concern for potential backers.
In addition, Zverev faces a very awkward first-round encounter against Alexander Bublik, who has just been to the final of the Singapore Open where his aggressive tennis worked well for most of the week.
The bottom half of the draw is headed up by Tsitsipas, another who suffered a chastening defeat in Melbourne, losing his semi-final with Medvedev in straight sets.
He’s had real problems in tournaments following Grand Slams and that is a major worry for those thinking he could go well at 5/1.
In his last eight ATP tournaments which have followed a Slam, Tsitsipas has lost either his first or second match on seven occasions.
In Rotterdam he’s won just one of five career matches (including qualifiers) and it’s not hard to envisage the Greek losing to indoor specialist Egor Gerasimov – just off a semi-final appearance in Montpellier - in round one.
Rublev is seeded to meet Tsitsipas in the last eight and he’s arguably the best bet of the top four seeds.
He’s managed two quarter-final appearances in as many visits to Rotterdam – not great, but not bad either – and three of his seven career titles thus far have come indoors.
The problem for Rublev will be if the other big names do reach the latter stages – he’s got a fairly poor record against the top 10. In particular, he’s had real problems dealing with Medvedev having lost all five of their meetings in straight sets, the most recent coming in Melbourne.
Given he’s 5/1, it’s hard to be confident over Rublev either.
I’ll instead head towards some bigger prices and take some small punts, knowing the big names look at least slightly vulnerable.
I’ll start with American REILLY OPELKA whose huge serve should be a major weapon in these conditions – the courts usually play pretty quick in Rotterdam.
He beat Medvedev in St Petersburg last autumn on indoor hard and one of his two career titles came indoors in New York in this month back in 2019.
That feared serve was in good working order in Melbourne where he played seven tie-breaks in four matches and should really heave beaten Taylor Fritz in the second round of the Australian Open.
He’s in the second quarter along with Zverev and Roberto Bautista Agut but the latter is still playing in Montpellier at time of writing. The Spaniard has done better than I expected there but asking the 32-year-old to back up here will be tough – he’s never played in back-to-back finals on the ATP Tour.
Opelka will almost certainly need to win some key tie-break points during the week if he’s to reach the final but at 50/1 I think it’s worth a small bet to find out if he’s capable of doing that.
In the opposite half, I’ll take on Tsitsipas with STAN WAWRINKA, who looks big at 33/1.
The Swiss won here in 2015 and was in the final as recently at 2019 (when he lost to Gael Monfils).
Wawrinka is in Tsitsipas’ quarter where things could really open up.
He’s got a tricky test against Karen Khachanov first up but Wawrinka has won two of their previous three meetings, including the only one on indoor hard.
Should they meet, he’ll also bring in a winning record (1-0) against Tsitsipas.
Last time out, ‘Stan the Man’ lost in the second round of the Australian Open, blowing match points in a final-set tie-break defeat to the mercurial Marton Fucsovics.
However, he didn’t play particularly badly and the plus side of that loss is that he’ll have been refreshed by almost three weeks without a match. He should be raring to go at a venue where’s he’s performed well in the past.
Given his draw, I think 33s about his chance is a tad large.
Finally I can also understand anyone wanting to back Bublik and/or Gerasimov this week – both are at three-figure prices.
The pair love competing indoors and both arrive in Rotterdam having already played a week of tennis in such conditions.
Long-term readers will know I’ve backed both men at indoor events in the past. However, in a field of this strength I think asking them to make the final may be a bit much, especially Bublik who has the long flight from Singapore to deal with too.
However, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if one (or even both) landed first-round upsets so my advice to those considering these two is to back them to win their opening matches rather than invest each-way in the outright market.
Published at 1525 GMT on 28/02/21
Tennis betting tips: ATP Buenos Aires - Argentina Open
1pt e.w. Thiago Monteiro in the Argentina Open at 20/1 (1/2 1,2 - William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Salvatore Caruso in the Argentina Open at 50/1 (1/2 1,2 - William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Facundo Bagnis in the Argentina Open at 25/1 (1/2 1,2 - Unibet)
ATP Buenos Aires - Argentina Open
- Buenos Aires, Argentina (outdoor clay)
The layers were wary about going up with a market for this event on Sunday, presumably because of the injury concerns surrounding the favourite, Diego Schwartzman.
The local hero and top seed has finally been chalked up around 9/4 but I won’t be going near him this week.
After losing the quarter-finals in Cordoba last week, another tournament for which he was a firm favourite, Schwartzman reported: “My knee hurts a lot, I don’t know what I have. I played taking pills to make the pain go away, but I don’t know if I can last another week like this.”
You’d be taking a major risk investing in a player admitting that, so clearly it makes sense to seek out value elsewhere.
Some will turn to Cristian Garin, whose 6/1 quote will look big if Schwartzman withdraws.
The Chilean shone during this ‘Golden Swing’ of claycourt events in 2020, winning titles in both Cordoba and Rio.
But his circumstances are different 12 months on. This will be only his second match since October after a wrist injury ruled him out of the Australian Open.
For all his claycourt nous, I can’t be backing him this week as there’s every chance rust will be in evidence.
If you are prepared to put the two market leaders to one side, the draw looks wide open and all of sudden you are into some tasty prices.
In the top half I’m going to turn to FACUNDO BAGNIS and give another go to THIAGO MONTEIRO.
Bagnis went well in Cordoba last week, reaching the semi-finals and thus earning an exemption in the main draw here.
Coming through qualifying, he won five matches in straight sets in Cordoba before losing in three to Albert Ramos-Vinolas. He served particularly well, holding with regularity prior to that that last-four clash.
Admittedly his record in Buenos Aires isn’t so good but he’s a resident of this city so will doubtless be giving his all this week and will have plenty of crowd support.
His good form coupled with a good draw make him of interest.
Bagnis opens against Frances Tiafoe, the American who will be playing his first claycourt match since October. This is far from his favourite surface.
A wild card or a qualifier would follow with Schwartzman (possibly) awaiting in the quarter-finals.
All things considered, 25/1 looks worth a try.
With our money on him, Monteiro was going along nicely in Cordoba last week before he ran into the red-hot Juan Manuel Cerundolo, who went on to win the title on his ATP Tour main-draw debut – the first time that has happened since 2004. I think I can be excused not having put him up last week.
A narrow three-set loss was disappointing but Monteiro played well enough to show why I had faith in him. It continued some good form from the Australian swing.
The 20/1 shot opens against Roberto Carballes Baena, a player he beat in Cordoba, with fourth seed Miomir Kecmanovic awaiting the winner.
I suspect the conditions here will be a bit too slow for Kecmanovic, who has been working with David Nalbandian in the last couple of weeks in a bid to improve his fortunes on this surface. Monteiro looks capable of grinding him down and going further than the quarter-finals here – a stage he reached both last season and in 2017.
Laslo Djere is the other seed in the section. Last year’s winner in Sardinia is a threat but he blows very hot and cold.
In the bottom half, another reason to oppose Garin is the fact he’s in the same quarter as Ramos-Vinolas, although going deep for successive weeks will be hard for the Spaniard after he was pushed to three sets in every round in Cordoba.
It’s the weaker third quarter where the best bet lies though, a section where the seeds are Benoit Paire and Pablo Andujar.
Paire ended a six-match losing streak in Cordoba but then lost in round two. He’s spent much of 2021 so far moaning about the COVID restrictions and spoke last week about his reasons for coming to Argentina, rather than playing in his native France.
“I prefer to come to Argentina this year, for the sun, with the swimming pool at the hotel, with the Quilmes (the local beer).”
He looks more likely to be going deep in the pool rather than the tournament this week.
A player who does catch the eye at 50/1 though is SALVATORE CARUSO.
The Italian will be playing his first claycourt tennis of the year this week but this is his natural surface so I don’t see that as a problem.
He’ll arrive with confidence boosted following his trip to Australia where he pushed compatriot Fabio Fognini all the way in round two before losing in a final-set tie-break.
You may have seen it - this was the match which ended with the pair arguing and having to be separated by officials.
It came a week after Caruso’s run to the third round of his warm-up event in Melbourne, during which he beat Tennys Sandgren and took the higher-ranked Kecmanovic to 7-5 in the third.
Those efforts followed on from a decent end to 2020, one which saw him defeat Felix Auger-Aliassime in Sofia. On the clay, he ended the season by reaching the final of a Challenger event in his homeland.
I first saw Caruso at Roland Garros in 2019 where he competed well with world number one Novak Djokovic and he followed that up by reaching the semi-finals in Umag. He beat Borna Coric that week before injury struck in the last four and he had to retire hurt.
Still, the reference is made to show he’s more than capable in a field of this quality and the signs from Australia suggest he could make a run this week.
Posted at 0805 GMT on 01/03/21
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