Our Andy Schooler makes Roger Federer the man to beat in the Shanghai Masters but also has 66/1 and 250/1 outsiders on side.
Shanghai Rolex Masters, outdoor hard, Shanghai, China
Rafael Nadal has never won the Shanghai Masters but having claimed victory in Sunday’s China Open final at a canter, the world number one starts favourite at this year’s event.
However, conditions will be quicker here – official stats showed Shanghai’s courts were the fastest of the nine Masters 1000 tournaments in 2016 – and that won’t help Nadal.
It should also be remembered that the Spaniard was a point from defeat in his opening match (against Lucas Pouille) in Beijing and interestingly the pair could meet again this week in round three.
As short as 5/4 (although you can get twice that price), I’ll happily leave Nadal alone this week. He may win but history suggests it will probably be someone else.
In my book, Roger Federer would be the favourite.
These conditions look ideal for the Swiss, who won here in 2014.
He went unbeaten at the recent Laver Cup, showing few signs of the back problem which affected his game at the US Open.
That’s still a slight concern as you have to wonder if that sort of problem is something which simply goes away after a couple of weeks’ rest but certainly if fully fit, Federer looks the man to beat.
He’s well drawn with the other major seeds in his section being a tired-looking Dominic Thiem, who also won’t like the court speed; David Goffin, in form after back-to-back titles but that workload can’t be good for his chances in this company; and Alex Zverev, the rising German star, who looks his main rival to reach the final.
Perhaps most importantly, Federer is also likely to be fully motivated.
He’d certainly like to take revenge on Zverev, who beat him in the final in Montreal in August, a match in which Federer sustained his back problem.
However, in talking about his motivation I was thinking more about longer-term targets.
Federer’s season run-in starts here and he’ll very much still harbour hopes of catching Nadal and finishing the year as world number one.
This is his time of year with the conditions here aiding his aggressive game and that will also be the case in Basel. Paris and the ATP Finals in London complete the year. Basically replicate his season so far over the next six weeks and he’s got every chance.
At 11/4, Federer is big enough to tempt me in as much looks in his favour.
However, regular readers will know my usual tactics are to hunt out value and I’m also going to put up a couple of long-odds shots who look to hold decent claims.
First, I just can’t have recent US Open finalist Kevin Anderson at 66/1 given how the courts are expected to play.
They will certainly aid his big serve which has been in fine working order in recent times and played a big part in his New York run.
It looked decent again in Tokyo last week too before a narrow loss to Ryan Harrison in the last 16. It’s a result I’m prepared to forgive given the close nature of that contest.
Virtually all the stats were in Anderson’s favour – he broke serve more than his opponent, won a higher percentage of return points – but he ended up losing 7-6 in the third.
The giant South African made the last eight here two years ago when he took down Asian hero Kei Nishikori.
This year he looks to have a decent draw with a very winnable route back to the quarter-finals where Nick Kyrgios, against whom he holds a 2-0 head-to-head record, or Marin Cilic could await.
Nadal in the semis would not be what the doctor ordered given how their US Open final unfolded but as already pointed out, I’m not convinced Nadal will be going deep again this week any way.
At 66/1, Anderson is worth a small punt.
I also can’t resist throwing a dart at Gilles Simon given his record in Shanghai over the years.
The Frenchman was a semi-finalist here 12 months ago and was the man Federer defeated in the 2014 final. He also made the last eight in 2009, while when the ATP Finals (then the Masters Cup) were held here prior to that, he also played some impressive tennis, beating Federer on one occasion.
Simon is in Federer’s section of the draw this week (they could meet in the quarters) but he’s often caused the Swiss problems. He trails 6-2 overall but, as already stated, has beaten him here, took him to two tie-breaks in that final three years ago and the pair have also twice gone five sets in Slams.
It’s his ability to keep the ball in play and grind down opponents in the rallies which his shot variation which can frustrate opponents – Novak Djokovic is another to have been bothered by Simon in the past – and 250/1 is a price worth throwing some small change at.
Of course, I’ve conveniently failed to mention so far that his 2017 for has been poor and the former top-10 star has slipped outside the top 40 now.
Yet one of his two quarter-finals this season came on similarly slick courts in Marseille and if there’s any venue that can inspire him to return to previous heights, it is this one.
Simon was actually one of eight players in main-draw action on Sunday when he dispatched local wild card Yibing Wu comfortably enough, posting some impressive serving numbers and facing just one break point.
So, he’s settled in for tough tasks to come, starting with the tired Goffin next (the big guns don't start their campaigns until Tuesday at the earliest).
Given we’ve still got plenty in the bank from Damir Dzumhur’s win at 25/1 a couple of weeks ago, I’m happy to take a chance on this one.
Recommended bets
2pts Roger Federer to win at 11/4
0.5pt e.w. Kevin Anderson at 66/1
0.5pt e.w. Gilles Simon at 250/1
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Posted at 2120 BST on 08/10/17.