Scott Ferguson has a look at Saturday's action at Wimbledon, alongside picking out two best bets at 5/6 and 11/4.
Recommended bets
1.5pts Schwartzman to win at 11/4
1pt Strycova +3.5 games at 5/6
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Matteo Berrettini v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
Italian 17th seed Matteo Berrettini has passed through the opening rounds without much fuss, defeating Aljaz Bedene in four sets and Marcos Baghdatis in three. His serve dictated the match each time, winning over 80% of first serve points and the majority of them on the second ball, much as you’d expect for a player standing 6’5”.
At the other end this time will be the nuggety Argentinian Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. Not blessed with cloud-touching height, his success is based around a superb return game, ranked only behind Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Fabio Fognini on that metric. To be able to blunt the power of his opponent gives him a big advantage over Berrettini’s victims so far. Based on the likelihood of playing on a show court, which has been reported as slower than those outside, this brings the players a lot closer together than the market indicates.
All aboard Schwartzman here, that price is simply too high.
Best bet: Schwartzman to win at 11/4
Kiki Bertens v Barbora Strycova
Dutch fourth seed Kiki Bertens made hard work of beating her last opponent, the crafty leftie Taylor Townsend. Bertens almost went home in straight sets before clinching a tiebreak and then racing to a 4-0 lead in the decider. Her grasscourt season has been very strong but she’s largely faced generic baseliners rather than anyone with a bit of variety to upset the opponent’s rhythm, a message reinforced by losses to Alison Riske and Karolina Pliskova.
Barbora Strycova has forged a career out of playing singles and doubles, and can be classified as a grass tactician. Not a superstar by any means, but a player who can upset any player unable to adapt. So far she has beaten Lesia Tsurenko and Laura Siegemund without conceding a set, and now has a great chance of taking a big scalp.
Bertens may be too strong in the end but I doubt she’ll have it all her own way.
Best bet: Strycova +3.5 games at 5/6